As I have stated in my preliminary Winter Outlook, the range this year would be between a weak el-nino and a weak la nina. Right now, El nino is looking less likely and Either a Neutral or weak La Nina is looking more likely. Here is what the National Weather Service Has To Say about the matter…
“Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.
Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña
Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 August 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: email@example.com.”
Right Now I am leaning more towards a weak La Nina as well. Conditoins are also now looking similar to last summer when it comes to the AO and The NAO, which I said in my winter outlook would be critical to the winter forecast. I said that if the pattern remained the same, then we could be looking at the winter I forecast-ed. But in the Weather Nothing remains the same! I will have my updated winter outlook out on July 25th 2011. Make sure to follow us on our new Weather Talk page and tell us about the weather in your area and feel free to ask any forecaster questions you might have about this upcoming winter. Take Care Everyone! 🙂