LA Nina On its Way Out! El Nino Next up?

Here is the Final advisory from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE LA NINA that led to this past winters record breaking warmth in some areas. Please note that the NWS said this is a final advisory.

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña has transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through northern summer 2012.

La Niña dissipated during April 2012, as below-average SSTs weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs persisted in the east (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were warmer than -0.5oC throughout the month, and the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also became positive in April (Fig. 3), as below-average sub-surface temperatures largely disappeared and above-average sub-surface temperatures expanded in both the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with the demise of La Niña, enhanced trade winds and reduced convection over the central equatorial Pacific were much weakened during April, and the area of enhanced convection that had previously dominated the western Pacific and Indonesia became disorganized (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.

The current and evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that La Niña is unlikely to re-develop later this year. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to continue from April-June (AMJ) through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6). However, at least half of the dynamical models predict development of El Niño conditions by JJA. Still, from JJA onward there is considerable forecast uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions will prevail, due largely to the inability to predict whether the warmer SST will result in the ocean-atmosphere coupling required for a sustained El Niño event. The official forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by approximately equal chances of Neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the year (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 June 2012. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov

So at this point in time it looks and appears as if we are in if not headed

Weak El Nino In Store This Upcoming Winter?

to neutral conditions and several sorces say we are most likely in for a weak El nino this upcoming winter. According to several models (Right) you will see that the majority place this upcoming year in a weak el-nino to neutral conditions. This could in a way favor a colder winter than average for the eastern half of the nation, but at the same time could favor a warmer than average season for the winter. There are so many factors that still have to fall into place. So we will see. But as it stands right now, I would say an average winter is in store for the United States. But we will have to wait and see before saying anything officially.

Preliminary Winter Outlook Release Date- June 10th 2012

Second Revised Winter Outlook Release Date- August 1st 2012

Third Revised Winter Outlook Release Date- September 15th 2012

Final Winter Outlook Release Date- October 10th 2012

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

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