What Stage Is El Nino At Now?

2 comments

1. 

   Eric Webb

   August 7, 2012 at 2:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   Colors look kind of weird, I usually associate el nino with red and la nina with blue, but it really doesn’t matter. Even though NOAA hasn’t officially stated that we are in el nino, the nino 3.4 region has exceeded the .5 degree celsius threshold, so this graph is pretty accurate.
2. 

   Eric Webb

   August 7, 2012 at 2:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   Despite the oncoming el nino, we have already had 6 named storms, and now with Hurricane Ernesto, 2 hurricanes, and no majors, yet. The cape verde season will be still somewhat healthy because of the cooler waters around the equator over the Gulf Of Guinea. However, many of these waves will not develop immediately thanks to dry air and above normal wind shear. Many storms will wait until they get close to the United States, then they’ll blow up, which of course means a higher threat of hurricanes, particularly the east coast, similar to what happened in 1954. We have to consider the fact that the AMO is in it’s warm state, the fact that the el nino is weak, and also the fact that we have already seen 6 named storms. I’m thinking 14-6-3 for this year’s numbers.