Could Isaac head the opposite of other models

5 comments

Skip to comment form ↓

1. 

   Derickeugenereesnowball

   August 24, 2012 at 3:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   Now is there a possibility of Isaac affecting PA if so how bad could it get?
2. 

   derickeugeneree

   August 24, 2012 at 4:30 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   now is there a possibility of isaac affecting PA if so how bad could it be?
3. 

   Eric

   August 24, 2012 at 7:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   @derickeugeneree There is still some uncertainty as to what Isaac will do once it emerges from land interaction with the mountains of Haiti and Cuba, but Isaac should pass through the Florida straights on Sunday and Monday as a strengthening tropical system due to the very conducive and favorable environment that will be in place north of the caribbean. From there, Isaac should enter the extreme eastern gulf of Mexico and west coast of Florida, but its strength will be largely determined by the amount of land interaction it has with Florida. Even if Isaac becomes a powerful hurricane its effects should remain south of Pennsylvania, at least that is how it appears now. A very sharp trough of low pressure will try and pick up Isaac next week over the southeast, and there is still some discrepancy between the models whether or not Isaac will be picked up by that trough or stall over the southeast and dump heavy rain, produce gusty winds, and tornadoes.
4. 

   Eric

   August 24, 2012 at 7:06 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   Jason I know how you feel, well at least I’m here now, lol.
5. 

   Eric

   August 24, 2012 at 7:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

   Notice how on satellite there’s a lot of thunderstorm activity and outflow in the NW quadrant of the storm and to the NW of the storm itself over the Bahamas, that’s usually a good indicator of where a tropical system will go. This means that south Florida better be getting prepared, because Isaac will significantly strengthen once it gets over the Florida straits, and we could very well see a hurricane by then, and if it stays in the eastern gulf of mexico, we could see isaac make a run at becoming a major hurricane. Although if it is over the very warm waters, high TCHP, and decent upper level environment over the eastern gulf, Isaac will suffer from some minor wind shear, because the mean upper level ridging will be further east and some dry air issues will also be a minor problem due to its proximity to Florida, but luckily for Isaac, it is a very large storm, and larger tropical cyclones have less of a tendency to be affected by adverse atmospheric and oceanic conditions that can take a serious toll on smaller systems.