Aug 26 2012

Isaac Aims For New Orleans, Start Preparing NOW!

If you are along the gulf coast, you are certainly keeping an eye on Issac. Currently it is still a tropical storm, but it is expected to gain hurricane strength soon. It is currently off the western coast of Florida and is headed for the Louisiana Coast. I know people around that area are having nightmares that this thing is the second coming of Katrina. Right now it is impossible to know this storms impact on that area, but right now, I would expect at least category one winds and heavy rain. Right now, just hope that the storm heads to your East, because while that is the wetter portion of the storm, it will cut down on some of the storm surge. Right now though I would Advise that those around the Louisiana coast, ACT NOW and have your Evacuation Plans ready. I would not be surprised to see this storm as a category 2 hurricane by landfall. And even be a hurricane by Mid-Morning tomorrow. Weather Advance Will Keep you updated on Tropical Storm Issac. Stay tuned.

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About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

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Eric

August 26, 2012 at 10:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Thanks for warning everyone Dante, It sure looks like New Orleans will get some effects from Isaac regardless of what happens. Some good news regarding Isaac is that the low level center appears to have decoupled from the mid-level center that is under the convection. I had said that the environment would not be perfect for Isaac and it would have a few issues, one being that Isaac is somewhat displaced from the mean upper level ridge east of Florida, so some westerly shear would be impinged on it because it was displaced slightly from it. Isaac also appears to be having some issues with dry air, being entrained in from the surrounding landmasses of Florida and Cuba, and also from an upper level low over the northern yucatan, which is also giving Isaac some 10-20 knots of shear. Isaac is still a good ways from being a hurricane, and it has to rebuild an inner core because of the centers decoupling, and it will probably reform a new center under the mid-level center tonight. farther northward, which may result in a shift of the track slightly to the east, at least in the short-term. Let’s just hope this continues because the longer Isaac takes to build an inner core, the lower the intensity he will end up being, and the less of an issue he will be for the residents of the northern gulf coast.
Eric

August 27, 2012 at 5:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Isaac has finally begun to strengthen thanks to the upper level low over the northern yucatan moving away, and Isaac is finally beginning to mix out dry air in the mid-levels, although some is still evident on the eastern side of the system. I think Isaac will be remembered not for his strong winds, but the storm surge it produces and the amount of rainfall, and because of Isaac’s large circulation and slow movement it may allow water to pile up in the northern gulf, and it could be a disastrous situation. Isaac will be moving very slow as it nears the coast, because it will be stuck between a ridge over the central US and a trough digging over the east, but that ridge should eventually build eastward and push Isaac towards the central US. This could be very good news for the areas of the midwest getting drought as Isaac could provide plentiful amounts of rain, and may put a serious dent in the drought occurring over that area. However, this is horrible news for areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama because they will have prolonged rains, strong gusty winds, and rather strong storm surge to deal with for several days.
Dante' Brown-Royal

August 27, 2012 at 9:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Eric, well i wouldn’t say its good news for the Midwest, because as these things drag across the country, usually they spin up severe weather outbreaks on the eastern side of it. While its beneficial rains are welcome, the severe weather is not. Hopefully, none is sparked but given tropical systems nature and i hope it doesn’t, but right not im not to confident that wont happen. The storm surge is not expected to be like Katrina, however its still horrible news that this storm is intensifying now, as storm surge as you mentioned is now a huge factor. Thanks for the comment Eric.
Eric

August 27, 2012 at 10:57 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

You are welcome Dante, I think we’ll kind of see a give and take with Isaac, yeah the storm surge won’t be as bad as Katrina but the heavy, flooding rain will be much worse because Isaac will be moving so slow, because it will be stuck in between a ridge over the central plains and a trough of low pressure over the eastern US. I think even if Isaac somehow produces similar to damage to Katrina, New Orleans, the people, and the government have taken better precautions, and better preparations for Isaac, and I would expect a much quicker and more efficient recovery.
Eric

August 28, 2012 at 5:43 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Mesovortex showing up within the eye of Isaac, that means Isaac is tightening up, due to frictional effects of the land, which slows down the air, and allows air to come into the center of the storm, and the frictional effects can also bring the strong winds from aloft to the surface, causing a sudden increase in wind speeds near the coast and just inland.
Eric

August 28, 2012 at 6:20 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

A wind gust on an oil platform in the gulf reported a wind gust of 106 MPH, Isaac is tightening up before landfall, very unusual to see a very small eye (mesovortex) within a larger 60-70 mile wide eye in category 1 hurricanes, don’t I have ever seen this before.