Sep 07 2012

Severe weather to occur over the northeast ahead of a very strong fall-like cold front

Looking at some of the information coming out of the SPC and the models, it would appear as if we are about to see and outbreak of severe weather over the northeast on Saturday. The ingredients are in place for significant, and widespread wind damage and tornadoes. Moisture and instability will be strong with CAPE values over 1500. Also, there will be plenty of wind shear and change of wind direction with height across eastern PA, NJ, eastern NY, CT, western MA, and southern NH and VT. The jet stream will be moving very fast at 70 knots in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and potentially increasing from there as this severe weather event unfolds. As far as tornadoes are concerned, it will all depend if discrete supercells form out ahead of a developing squall line which will form along the cold front. If they do develop out ahead of the main squall line, they will have the ability to draw from very high instability and will have an easier time taking advantage of the environment ahead of the squall line as opposed to if they are located in an area with numerous thunderstorms, because they will have strong competition from other thunderstorms. Certainly going to be a rough day for cities like Scranton, Albany, New York City, Hartford, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Springfield, and even as far north as Burlington, Vermont.

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About the author

Eric

Hello, my name is Eric and I have had a strong passion for weather ever since I was very little, and over the last few years I've begun to research and really understand what drives the weather and have began to try my hand at forecasting. I personally love to track winter storms and hurricanes because of all of the uncertainty involved and the major implications that follow with the forecast. I am a very big snow lover and winter is my favorite time of the year, plus it's also hockey season for me (Go Hurricanes!). I really enjoy everyone's forecast and insight, and I enjoy answering questions anyone has about weather or weather related topics.

4 comments

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Tyler

September 8, 2012 at 6:51 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Will the east have mixing problems this winter?
Dante' Brown-Royal

September 8, 2012 at 8:59 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Tyler Right now I don’t think the east will have many mixing problems, maybe right along the coast, but not much really.
Eric Webb

September 8, 2012 at 10:48 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I agree with you Dante, I think in the heart of winter over the east, especially the northeast will have few mixing problems, however, we know that at some point it is inevitable because at some point a storm system will track farther west, and that of course may be more problematic, because ice is a lot harder to deal with than snow.
Calvin

September 8, 2012 at 12:50 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Dante’..

How does Atlanta look this winter in terms of snowfall, ice problems, and temperatures?