Does this winter look like we can get a 2007 dec. ice storm
All of the data from ’76-’77 and ’09-’10 does NOT show a cold PDO for those winters. Look at thr University of Washington monthly PDO values. 4/7 long range models have a neutral ENSO forecasted this winter. Let alone the fact that we are not in a true El Nino as we stand. SOI is under -8 at -4.1 and 3.9 for the 90/30 day values respectively. The “even if we do, we’d be in a Modiki anyway” is a false statement. A Modiki El Nino is just that…an El Nino. It is not synonymous with neutral. The “general pattern” IS different between a neutral and positive Nino…especially a moderate nino like ’09-’10 was.
Who’s the one not understanding the pattern? The one who goes against clear data that shows in Mid’76 we switched to a warm PDO and blindly follows Bastardi who claimed on 03MAR12 that areas of IA/IL/MO was suppose to be -2 in temps? You can quote Bastardi all you want, but it won’t get you far. I would suggest you look at Bastardi on 04FEB11 where he states the 2nd year La Nina was going to be colder than the first…aka…2011-2012.
Correct PDO link above. Judge for yourself.
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