When looking at the short and long range GFS models we are seeing extended periods of colder than average air temperatures spilling into the eastern half of the United States. While the NAO, AO and PNA remain inconsistent The General theme for the NAO has been to remain negative. I think soon the AO will follow suit. Its actually good that the NAO has been not been dominantly negative, and around the 0-2 range in negative. Why? Well because if it is too negative, yes you will have cold air, but it will end up pushing or suppressing the southern jet stream too far south and will not allow for any winter weather to develop over the eastern half of the United states. So its actually good that the NAO is hovering around where it has been.
And another positive sign is that the GFS model is hinting at a coastal low developing next week. While it is far to warm now to produce snow, if it were December we may be talking about a good 3-6 inches of snow from DC, to Baltimore, To Philadelphia and New York City. Seeing things like this is the type of pattern that you want to see. Notice on the Model there is not hovering Low pressure system hanging over the Great lakes that holds the warm air in place but instead a firm area of cold air that could be wrapped into the storm system, This is what we want to see if you like snow in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and I really think that this October will be a sign of things to come this winter.