Oct 07 2012

Revised 2012-2013 Winter Forecast (October 7th).

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About the author

Matthew

Hey my name is Matthew Hatley. I am 16 and I always loved the weather ever since I was a baby. I used to stand at the door and watch the lightning during thunderstorms. I was a little chap when I used to do that. I am a meterologist for mainly the southeast but occasinally I do forecasts for the whole country. I do my best to give information about the weather to people who ask me what the weather will be like for the day, or the week. My favorite time of the year is winter. I do the best weather forecasting during the winter. I enjoy all of the people who view my forecast, but not only mine but all the other forecasters at Weatheradvance.com

10 comments

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Trip

October 7, 2012 at 1:18 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

People are saying this winter might not even be a El Nino and the models don’t have a good handle on it. You don’t think we will be in a neutral ENSO?
Eric

October 7, 2012 at 5:09 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

The NAO actually looks like it will be in its positive phase because the current overall troughing pattern centered near the Hudson Bay will become amplified as a new low pressure system rotates towards Atlantic Canada, and that system will move Northeastward towards Greenland in about 5 days, and the lower pressures near Greenland is a +NAO signature. As the low pressure moves away from New England after 3 days or so, high pressure will build over the eastern and central US, with troughing centered over Alaska and the west coast, which means temperatures will warm for a while over the east, and this warm-up was something I had indicated back on the 3rd. However, with a new typhoon currently developing over the western Pacific, this suggests more cold and troughiness will return to the eastern US in about 2 weeks or so, and there are a few indications that another typhoon may develop over the western Pacific behind the current one that is developing.
Dustin

October 7, 2012 at 5:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Does that mean no snow again with + Nao and will it go to -Nao agian for east coast.
Eric

October 7, 2012 at 11:19 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Dustin
No, it doesn’t, the warm water over the North Atlantic is an overall signal for a -NAO this winter, because the warmer waters focus the low pressures away from Greenland, and that forces pressures to rise over Greenland and the surrounding areas, which is a -NAO signature. The NAO can not be negative for the entire winter or fall, it will be positive at certain times, and the NAO will be positive at times during this upcoming winter. The reason it goes positive, despite the overall signature being negative, is because like other oscillations and the weather itself, it is very cyclical, and must reach some kind of equilibrium to keep and restore balance that is naturally imbalanced by things like axial tilt, differences in pressure, sunlight, temperature, elevation, and the ratio of oceans to land masses in the northern and southern hemisphere, among many other things. The NAO will go positive for a while, but due to the warm water over the North Atlantic, it will go negative again soon, however, once the NAO goes positive, I expect the it to remain positive through at least the 20th of October.
Dustin

October 8, 2012 at 4:34 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Thank you Eric so your thoughts still stand for a good winter in VA.
Chintan N

October 8, 2012 at 4:40 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Nice Forecast Matthew! But still freaking 79 and 78 high hanging around Buford, Ga, and really I am very exhausted with freaking this temperature since March 2012. I have hope from your forecast, but I am very big fan of snow. However, we never have satisfied snowfall since I lived here. I really like to see 40 or above snowfall in Buford, Ga. I mean coldest and snowiest winter with huge blast of cold, snow periods for very long time around 6 to 7 months.
Rick

October 8, 2012 at 5:57 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

what exactly makes you so confident that the nao and ao are going to stay negative through the winter?
Rick

October 8, 2012 at 8:48 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

oh and here’s a tip: you want the PNA to be positive if you want cold over the southeast.
Roland

October 9, 2012 at 9:03 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I would rather have snow than ice, which is what is showing for Arkansas. maybe time to get the generator out and tuned up.
P. Harris

October 10, 2012 at 2:34 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Thanks so much for explaining this so that weather dummies can understand. I really am excited about this winter. Looking forward to it. Thanks for your time and effort.