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Oct 08 2012

Matthew

2012-2013 Snowfall Forecast Totals!

About the author

Matthew

Matthew

Hey, My name is Matt im 17 years old. I am a weatherforecaster for the southeast United States. I have always loved the weather ever since I was a kid. Sometimes me and my dad will chase storms just for fun. I have captured some incredible and intense weather before and hope to continue that. I have expereinced a tornado, and a tropical storm. I have also experienced severe ice-storms and heavy snowfall. I am just facinated with the weather. My favorite season during the year is winter. I like the cold brisk days and the snow on the ground. When it comes to forecasting the weather i do my best, and get the information people want, out there.

15 comments

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  1. Eric
    Eric
    I like the forecasts maps Matthew, keep it up! I like how you gave a large range in snowfall for the southern US because of how unpredictable snowfall can be, and how an anomalous snowstorm can produce more than an entire season’s worth of snowfall. 6-21 inches for my region, I think that’s a good call on your part, if I tried to predict seasonal snowfall, my predictions for my area probably wouldn’t differ much from yours.
  2. Rick
    7-15 inches in louisiana? No. What atmospheric processes would have to take place to have 22-30 inches in atlanta? If you are expecting these totals in the south to be due to one snow storm then you must be some sort of psychic, because youre talking about a 1 in 150 year storm, when have snow totals ever been that high?
  3. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    With all do respect i wouldn’t mind such a would as this but i dont see us getting a super storm of 93, if you know what i mean lol. Although i cant rule out the upper southern states for if a deep trough does come way south this year which is a possibility then we can get these amounts. Good Job Mathew
  4. Rick
    yea honestly move that grey area to the like the north carolina virginia border area, but even that would be a bit of an anomalous stretch.
  5. derickeugeneree
    are the snowfall totals pleminary or final?
  6. Roland
    I would chance saying that this is preliminary. It’s very early yet to predict what will happen in January. Here in Arkansas we don’t get very much snow. Some places may get six to eight inches on a good snow, but by far the average is less. Some years we may not get any snow. Much of the time…. ICE. Which is what the preliminary forecast is calling for in my area.
  7. Mac Nab
    Hi,

    I am wondering if it is true that atlanta will get 22-30 inches.

    Thank you

  8. Eric
    Eric
    @ Mac
    Probably way too aggressive on the snow totals, the average snowfall for Atlanta is 2.1 inches, and with this winter expected to be above normal snowfall wise I would probably go with 5-12 inches of snow this year. Even 2009-10 and 2010-11 didn’t see even anything even close to 20 inches of seasonal snowfall in Atlanta, nonetheless, it will be snowy and cold this winter in Atlanta.
  9. Dustin
    Eric what about Caroline county VA what is your thoughts for winter.
  10. Eric
    Eric
    Dustin, I have not changed my thoughts at all on the mid-atlantic being cold and snowy this year, and for your particular location, based on US average snowfall maps, I see that you see about 16 inches of snow in a normal year. This winter will be above normal in snowfall throughout much of the mid-atlantic, and I’m thinking you’ll probably see anywhere from 20-30 inches of snow this year. As I have said in some other comments, I think we’ll have a fast start to winter in December, then in the heart of winter towards January we’ll see a significant warm period, but then the snow and cold will come back after that in February, and this has been the general theme of many of the recent el nino and warm neutral winters.
  11. derickeugeneree
    Eric are you still thinking that southern PA will see between 40 and 60 inches of snow like you said awhile back?
  12. Eric
    Eric
    @derickeugeneree, yes I still think you’ll see between 40-60 inches of snow, of course that is just an estimation at this point, but considering how you usually see a little over 2 feet of seasonal snow in a normal year, and also considering that even though we have seen the el nino over the tropical pacific deteriorate, still think you’ll see above normal snowfall. The AO and NAO are showing signs of being very favorable this winter with warmer than normal waters over the north Atlantic, which helps to force pressure rises over the arctic and over land in Greenland and parts of Canada.
  13. Eric
    Eric
    However, I will caution that there have been a few dud years on snowfall over the northeast due to the main storm track being forced farther south and east, and with very little north-south tracking systems, and this is a good reason why, although I am fairly confident that southern PA will see a good winter this year, the area that appears to be the most likely to see above normal snowfall would be the mid-atlantic, from MD, DE, southern NJ, the Virginias and Carolinas, the Appalachians, and into GA and AL. Even though southern PA is not as likely as these areas to see above normal snowfall, the chances of seeing it this year are still fairly high.
  14. Jeff Reed
    will jeffersoncounty wv be getting the same amount of snow fall that we got back in the winter of 2009 and 2010 winter season which was 89 inches of snow if not how much would we be getting?
  15. Eric
    Eric
    @ Jeff Reed, you will probably not see as much snow as you saw in 2009-10, however, I think you’ll see quite a bit this year. 2009-10 was certainly very impressive, and although conditions are quite favorable for snow in the mid-atlantic this year, I am not going to be that aggressive on snow fall totals because of how unusual it is to see that much snow in a year. I’m thinking probably very similar totals to what I am thinking for derickeugeneree, probably 40-60 inches, simply because southern PA and jefferson county, WV are usually very similar in yearly snowfall totals. I am a little more confident though in above average snowfall for your area as opposed to southern PA, because there is still some slight uncertainty as to where exactly the storm track will be for this year, and the reason why I have this concern is because even in years where there was warm waters over the North Atlantic helping to create a -AO and NAO, and where there was warmer than normal waters over the tropical pacific, the northeast still saw below normal snowfall. Even with a southern, more out to sea storm track, the mid-atlantic still gets lots of snow, and this why I think the Carolinas, the Virginias, east Tennessee and Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia stand the best chance to see above normal snow;

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