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Oct 17 2012

Jason Shaulov

General Winter Forecast 2012-2013 and something to look at on GFS

UPDATE:Not a big deal considering its hr 288,but its interesting its been showing it for a couple of runs. A quick 2-4 inches in the northeast is not out of the question for it is possible in this time frame. You the GFS digging the trough and perhaps something is forcing it down (hint in the tropics) Northern branch seems to be really active, take this with a grain of salt Stay Tuned!!!!!!

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Jason Shaulov

Jason Shaulov

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  1. Dustin
    Jason very nice winter outlook so your thinking VA will have a good winter when do you see snow for VA and do you think my area Caroline county VA will see snow or mainly rain.
  2. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    @dustin your area will seem to have a pretty snowy winter of course I can not say every event will be snowy but I think looks good in your area. You’ll be on the colder side but as you go north to Rhode Island things start to get warmer north of it .
  3. Eric
    Eric
    Good job Jason, this is very similar to my thoughts for this winter
  4. khalandrea
    is charlotte nc in the blue or the darkish pink thing.
    Thanks
  5. Dustin
    Jason can you explain to me how Caroline county VA will be.colder.than.Rhode Island usually other way around.little confused.
  6. Dustin
    Thanks jason
  7. Eric
    Eric
    @ Dustin, he’s talking about being compared to what is considered average for your area, Virginia will be even colder than normal compared to Rhode Island. Kudos to Jason, he’s making a pretty good observation here, I have taken some notice how when you get ridging over Greenland and Canada, sometimes the southern flank of the ridge can sneak southward into New England, but it is occasional in nature.
  8. Dustin
    Oh ok thank u
  9. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    Exactly, thank Eric lol
  10. Dustin
    Great job Jason and Eric thank you guys for the great input Looking forward to winter to start.
  11. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    It always a pleasure :)
  12. Eric
    Eric
    @Dustin and Jason
    You guys are welcome, something I said in my blog about high hurricane activity correlating to colder and snowier conditions overall seems to work in many of the most recent years. Thus far in October we’ve had Nadine, Oscar, Patty, and Rafael, and it looks like we’ll see Sandy and even tony in the longer ranges. The last time we saw a comparable amount of storms in October was in 2010, and of course many people across the south remember that year quite well, considering we had a widespread area of white christmas from Oklahoma and Texas to the Carolina Appalachians. The other October with 5 named storms or more was 2005, and the December that followed was cold and snowier than normal over the south, especially for areas near the I-40 corridor. If history were to repeat itself here, we could be looking at winter getting to a fast start for many, and this is also supported by other factors which favor cold and snow as well, at least for December.
  13. ahmad
    IF THE GREENLAND RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SNEAK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THEN THERE’S SOME SERIOUS BLOCKING GOING ON
  14. ahmad
    @eric
    uhhh i dont think oklahoma had a white christmas in 2010 in fact oklahoma had a pretty mild 2010-2011 winter until february came around
  15. Eric
    Eric
    Yes, you’re right, that snowstorm that affected the south around christmas time only produced snow as far west as Arkansas, however it was pretty snowy in Oklahoma starting in mid January and going through February, but the winter was dead after that thanks to the AO and NAO getting out of their deeply negative states and they began to go into a more positive state.
  16. Eric
    Eric
    @Ahmad
    The Greenland block does not always stay in place over Greenland, and from time to time, the main blocking can shift into NE Canada, and a piece of that ridge can slide down into New England on occasion, although it does not occur often. Of course many of us in the mid-atlantic and carolinas have heard of cold air wedges that are created by areas of strong areas of high pressure over New England and southern Canada that pump cold air from the NE along and east of the appalachians that helps to induce more winter weather. Stratospheric warming events can also lead to erratic and very unpredictable blocking patterns as well.
  17. Eric
    Eric
    Wow, the 6Z GFS had two hurricanes heading towards the US coast at the exact same time, don’t think I’ve ever seen that before, but even though I highly doubt that will occur, it is very interesting to see. Iit is the first time I’ve ever seen this on a model before with two hurricanes very close to each other trying to both strike the US, if that occurred would be a major fujiwhara effect. However, the main thing to take away from this is that given the conditions at hand, and what I’ve been saying since September 22nd, this just expresses my concerns for a hurricane threat on the US in October, perhaps even into early November. IF we get a hurricane to hit or pass very close to the US, it will enhance a trough over low pressure that will be over the higher latitudes and send cold air charging down into the eastern US. Here’s the link http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfstropical850mbVortSLP384.gif
  18. Clayton
    Thanks for making this forecast, great job! I live near Memphis so it looks pretty good…. I just hope better than last year.
  19. derickeugeneree
    should a hurricane or hurricanes effect the US will they affect PA in anyway with wind and rain or one or the other?
  20. Dustin
    @ Eric or Jason what do you guys think of noaas winter forecast put out today
  21. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    @Derickeugenree if there is a chance one might ride up the coast, and if that happens PA will certaintly get some affects .
  22. Alex Dabrow
    Why is the cold and snowy area not going through all of New England? The storm track is going to dump these storms out to sea? I don’t think so. Not with the blocking that we are going to see throughout most of the winter. And what does the orange stand for? It better not be for warm temps…
  23. Dwayne
    Umm Are you guys blind on this sight? this should be taken down!
  24. Alex Dabrow
    Hey, I was wondering if you could join our weather chat. We start at 8 PM Eastern Time. We are on the website Pal Talk. You can use the express website for free.
    http://express.paltalk.com/
    We would love to discuss your outlook and get your opinion on ours as well. Feel free to email me at alexjdabrow@gmail.com to get further details if you wish to join. Thanks,
    - Alex
  25. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    Alex I would love that ,is this tomorrow
  26. ahmad
    noaa temperature forecast almost looks like urs jason
  27. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    @Dwayne you seem upset but I need more of an elaboration because clearly I don’t understand what you mean when you are we blinded on ” SITE”
  28. Jason Shaulov
    Jason Shaulov
    @Ahmad your right they do see the warmth in the western part of the country as we forecasted that a couple months ago and I feel a trend of cooling in the forecast for the east
  29. Anthony
    I do like this new outlook.

    http://www.farmersalmanac.com/forum/2012/10/18/this-doesnt-look-good/
    this, however, i find ridiculous and just do not agree with.

  30. Shawn
    I live in central Missouri and I would like to know if we are supposed to have tons of snowstorms? Will we have times where we have well below zero temperatures? How about possible blizzards or thundersnow?
  31. Eric
    Eric
    @derickeugeneree
    It is too far out to determine of if a hurricane will affect PA due to the fact that we don’t even have a storm yet, and also taking into account that this will be a tropical formation out of the monsoon low, which is a very large and broad low pressure area that strengthens when the MJO is in its upward phase. The models can have trouble with such a feature because it can be difficult for the model to close off a specific area of low pressure that will be embedded within such a large area of low pressure, this is not an african tropical wave we’re dealing with where you have a more concentrated region of thunderstorms and low pressure. However, using history, most likely if this storm forms in the NW caribbean it will try to affect south Florida, and maybe sneak up as far north as the Carolinas, and another scenario could be that it will be forced ENE out to sea because of a weakness that will be present between the high pressure area that will be near the eastern US and canadian maritimes and the high pressure area that will be centered farther east, just southwest of the Azores, which would be enough to force a tropical cyclone out to sea. If this system does impact the US coast, you’ll most likely be seeing more cold air from a trough that will be amplified due to the presence of a tropical cyclone, and I doubt that much in the way of moisture will be able to reach into PA, because of how hard it is for tropical cyclones in October to maintain a due north track (even though Hazel in 1954 did it), because the stronger and deeper troughs allow the westerlies to be enhanced and much further south, which makes it harder for storms to stay on a northward course without being forced east at some point.
  32. Dustin
    Eric what do you think of noaas winter forecast.
  33. Stephen Boyle
    Jason, I am an admin in that chat that Alex is talking about. Yes the chat is tonight and every night. Me and a NWS meteorologist (his name is Mike) will be in the chat. We welcome anyone who has a keen interest in meteorology or who just wants to know what is going on with the weather. However, Alex sent you a link to Paltalk express. That isn’t any good, you should download paltalk messenger and come on that way, since Paltalk express is not meant for what we do on the chat. If you want you can e-mail me as well at stephenboyle522@yahoo.com
  34. Stephen Boyle
    Eric you are welcome as well to the chat. We would love to have you guys in there. Again send me an email so you can get to the chat properly.
  35. Chintan N
    Good Forecast, but here in Buford, Ga its freaking hot until end of October,really, I am desperate with hot, if you not believe, but its 75 to 77 temperatures entire October. Hot will be killing people because hot is devil, and devil would not have pity for anyone.
  36. Ahmad
    When is this warm spell suppose to end because I’m tired of unseasonably warm temps the last 9 of 14 days. The coolest our temps have got the past couple of weeks is only near seasonal levels. I mean come on mid-upper 60′s for lows and low-mid 80′s for highs and near 90 in N.W oklahoma , that’s not right for this time of year.and also whenever we get precip it’s kind like a spring to tropical-like precip,when do you suppose that colder air will get mixed in with the precip because every time we do get cooler it ends up bone dry.
  37. Ahmad
    I said 9 out of 14 days because I was going based off my local weather station’s forecast for this week. The forecast calls for one more day of seasonal temps, which that is today then turning warmer then muggy
  38. Eric
    Eric
    @Dustin
    I do not like the new outlook, and I have paid very little to no attention to NOAA’s winter outlooks over the last several years, because they have a tendency to flip-flop and seem to be heavily reliant on the CFSv2 model, which also has completely flipped from last month and shows much more cold over the US. When you look at the conditions that we have in front of us (as I have explained in previous comments and posts), I don’t put too much faith into this outlook, I think the warmth in the west is way overdone, even though there will be predominant ridging out west, don’t think it will too terribly warm compared to normal until you get west of the Rockies because once you get east of the Rockies into the plains it should continue to be below normal. I say this because of how dry it has been in the plains and with less moisture in the air and with the lack of high heat content that is provided by water, the plains will be more vulnerable to dramatic temperature changes, especially cold air masses.
  39. Eric
    Eric
    @Ahmad
    Using temperature data from Elk City, OK which is in west-central Oklahoma, I discovered that over the last 2 weeks, there have been just as many above normal days as below normal days (since October 5th), yes, they have seen warm temperatures in the mid-upper 80s a few days, but high temperatures on the 6th and 7th were in the upper 40s. The monthly average October high temperature for Elk City, OK is 73, so highs in the upper 40s are farther below average than seeing above normal highs in the mid-upper 80s. I also took an average of the high temperatures for Elk City, OK for the first 18 days of October, and it was 72.3 degrees, actually right about at normal, and this is a trend that will probably persist into the winter because the plains will be caught between the overall riding out west, and troughiness out east, and this is right in line with Jason’s forecast in his post above, “Flip flop weather & Regular Precipitation and Temperatures” (although I think the pattern will be wetter than normal south of I-70 in the plains due to the enhanced subtropical jet stream that is in place because of warm ENSO neutral conditions that are currently present over the tropical pacific.)
  40. Eric
    Eric
    @ Chintan
    75-77 degrees in October is “hot”? The average high temperature for October in Buford, GA is 71 degrees, so temperatures in the mid-upper 70s aren’t too uncommon and are fairly close to normal. Like I did with Ahmad, I took an average of the high temperatures in the first 18 days of October and I got 73.3 degrees, which is not very far from average for the entire month of October, of course when we get the remaining days of the month input, this number will probably drop even more, and put the month of October near to slightly below normal temperature wise.
  41. Eric
    Eric
    @ Anthony
    I agree, I do not put much stock in NOAA winter outlooks, they have a tendency to flip-flop and I don’t agree with this current outlook given what we are seeing over the tropical pacific, the NAO/AO, the MJO, other similar winters, and what we have seen so far this fall in accordance to these factors.
  42. Hockeymom
    @ Chintan you say that 75 to 77 is Hot are you nuts, after the summer we had here in Snellville Ga. 75/77 is AWESOME !! Can’t wait for the temps to drop more !!
  43. Ahmad
    @eric
    What about Oklahoma City because where I live
  44. Eric
    Eric
    @Ahmad
    The average high for Oklahoma City, OK is also 73 degrees for October, and high temperatures on the 6th and 7th were slightly warmer into the lower 50s. Oklahoma City saw its earliest freeze ever on record back on October 8th, measured at 552 am at Will Rogers World Airport (31 degrees), which beats the previous earliest freeze record set back on October 9th, 2000 when the temperature dipped to 28. This is according to http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-records-earliest-official-autumn-freeze/article/3717048 The average temperature for the first 18 days of October for OKC is about 71.7 degrees which is over one degree below normal for the entire month, and with the 2nd half of October to go, it is likely this number will only drop from here. It has not been warm as you thought, in fact, it has been colder than normal. Also, the warmest the temperature has gotten in the entire month is 83, that occurred on the 15th, which means that it has not gotten into the mid-upper 80s to near 90 in OKC so far this month.
    To come up with my temperature averages, you can simply go to weather.com, click on monthly forecast, and simply add up all the high temperatures and divide by the number of days to get the mean temperature. You can do the same thing with low temperatures and you can compare this number to averages, which they have towards the bottom of that monthly outlook temperature page.
  45. Ahmad
    @eric

    The ninety degree reading I was talking about was in alva.

  46. Eric
    Eric
    @Ahmad
    I seen that, however that makes some sense given that Alva is farther west, away from the source of moisture of the Gulf of Mexico, thus it is more vulnerable to dramatic temperature changes, however to say that this is not right for this time of the year (which is somewhat of a valid statement) when they also experienced highs in the mid-upper 40s earlier in the month with 2 mornings of below freezing temperatures is just as extreme as the warm spell you just experienced. You were referring to the last 2 weeks in your comment, and you said the coolest temperatures you experienced were near seasonal levels (in the low-mid 70s), when you had highs in the lower 50s and upper 40s widespread throughout Oklahoma earlier in October. Look, I understand you’re getting impatient with the cold, but it actually has been near to below normal temperature wise throughout many areas of Oklahoma.
    Also, Alva, OK average high for the month of October is 73, thus far in the first 18 days of the month (even with the 90 degree reading) the average temperature was 72.8 degrees, still below normal. This only proves my point that I’m trying to get across that despite this recent warm spell (which I had indicated would occur in my post on October 3rd), temperatures are still near to below normal, thus this most recent warmth isn’t nearly as bad as it appears, because it was completely counteracted by the record cold that hit (specifically OKC and surrounding areas) around October 8th.
  47. Ahmad
    What about the precip when is the colder air gonna get into the mix because when it rains its always really warm and when it gets cold it’s hardly any precip at best like when we had the record cold in Oklahoma City.

    You get what I’m trying to say the colder air doesn’t want to get into the mix because once again Oklahoma City going to get warm and humid with rain and storms then a few days after that the arctic blast comes in.

  48. Ahmad
    And the most annoying thing is the cold blast comes a few days after
  49. Ahmad
    Not trying get upset that there is is no early season snow but trying to say when it’s going to rain more normally by not having a tropical like air mass like when it rained here dewpoint where into the 60′s
  50. Eric
    Eric
    @Ahmad
    We are only in October, climatologically speaking, normally it can only get cold when high pressure builds in and dries the air out, thus allowing it to cool and warm much more quickly. I know you want it to snow, but the chances of that happening in October are slim and none. Interestingly though, the new run of the GFS in about a week from now has an arctic air mass running down the east side of the Rockies and meeting up with a weak low pressure area coming out of the central Rockies and the tail end of a frontal boundary, and this allows low pressure to fester and strengthen, and with cold air in place, it actually shows snow over parts of the southern plains and shows snow extending through parts of the midwest and into the Great Lakes. The previous run also shows the possibility for winter weather, and unbelievably has snow all the way down into the I-40 corridor (includes cities like Little Rock, Memphis, Fort Smith, Nashville) of Arkansas and Tennessee. This set-up, although unusual does make a little sense, because looking at the 500 millibar level, there will be a mega-block of high pressure over NW Canada, Alaska, and eastern Russia. The ECMWF does not show this, and that can be attributed to the fact that it has the mega-block of high pressure much farther west into eastern Asia and the Bearing Sea, with less blocking over Alaska and NW Canada. This potential system will depend on the strength of the low pressure area that will be moving initially out of the midwest and into Canada in about 6-7 days, and this low will leave behind a trough and cold air, it will also depend on the eastern Pacific. If we get a tropical cyclone like the GFS is suggesting down there, then it will be able to break down the high somewhat over the SW and Mexico, which will allow the trough to become slightly more amplified and remain in place longer, and this will essentially increase the possibility of this potential winter weather set-up. This will be something interesting to watch for over the next several days.

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