Nov 19 2012

Short Range Model Analysis

GFS Model predicts colder than average temperatures After Thanksgiving 2012

Cold Air To return This weekend, at least that is what the latest GFS Model is pointing to. While the weather right now is around normal temperature wise, expect it to drop. A weak area (precipitation wise) will come through the mid-Atlantic and northeast and it will provide some showers, but the main story will be the very cold air behind it for Sunday and Monday of the Following week with highs not getting out of the’s from Northern Virginia and on forward to points North. This does not look like it will lean onto a snowy system in the east as temperatures look to become average as another storm begins to develop over the four corners region.

Right now the pattern does not look to conducive for big snowstorms. While its possible, i will try and explain later why it is unlikely to happen.

This post has no tag

About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

7 comments

Skip to comment form ↓

Armando

November 19, 2012 at 4:44 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Good post dante! Im so glad this winter will be opposite than last winter for the northeast. So a. Couple days ago the GFS showed a storm for the east. Is there any indication that there could be for the east coast next week or any other storm?
Jordan R.

November 19, 2012 at 4:56 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

nice post.. but when will north new jersey get to see its first major snow storm?
Eric

November 19, 2012 at 8:09 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Although the pattern may not be favorable for snowstorms over the eastern seaboard, the plains and Great Lakes could be in for quite a powerful system in the week of after Thanksgiving, and this is the same storm the GFS saw off the east coast a few days ago, but the ECMWF and its ensembles seem to have a better handle on a potential system and show it striking the Great Lakes region. The GFS and the GFS ensembles seem to be having major troubles resolving this pattern, and its constant flip-flopping and inconsistencies showing up within its own solutions seem to exemplify my concern with the GFS right now.
Eric

November 19, 2012 at 8:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Jordan R.
You had the nor’easter hit in early November which produced a significant amount of early season snowfall over parts of the northeast including northern New Jersey, and many areas saw more snow in that single storm than they had all of last winter. I certainly qualify that storm as significant though, because that much snow this early in the season is quite unusual, but I guess it depends on your perception of what is a “significant” snowstorm. I’ll let Dante give you his opinion on this though, maybe he sees something that I don’t.
Dante' Brown-Royal

November 19, 2012 at 11:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Armando, thank you. It has shown a couple of storms but have quickly left that Idea. Right now the pattern has storms coming into the Pacific Northwest and strong storm systems at that. Usually when you have these storms coming back to back to back in the Pacific northwest it is usually proceeded by a ridge, as the system moves east the ridge moves east. So until we see the pattern change from an active Pacific Northwest. I doubt that we will see any major snowstorm at least over the next couple of weeks in and along the East Coast. Maybe the Great Lakes see there first Lake effect snow event.
Dante' Brown-Royal

November 19, 2012 at 11:20 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Jordan, Well its very hard to predict the first snowstorm of the season. South and Extreme eastern parts of New Jersey saw significant snow in a storm earlier this month. If you didn’t, the pattern is not conducive at the current time to produce snow along the East Coast maybe the interior but not the coast. You may have to wait until mid-December. But hey, this is the weather we are talking about. Things can always change. But this is how it looks right now.
SnowMAN19

November 26, 2012 at 4:42 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

So dante and Eric, I know that this upcoming snow event which will happen tomorrow for my area(north central NJ) won’t be significant because I know their isn’t much blocking going on nor the jetstream isn’t buckling up. It’s just flat so this low pressure can’t really intensify off the coast. I was hoping that it was and some of the models did have it intensifying, but not the case this time. I tell you right away that i’m a winter lover! So even though this storm won’t be “significant” at least we are getting snow which is a good sign because we the people of NJ has gone though some wild events over the last month. I just know this winter will be crazy and really hoping that the east coast gets what all the weather blogs are saying, and i know we will! So now I have a few questions. First I know a warm-up is coming, so after this is their anything on the horizon or caught your attention? Also could this be the last warm up in sight? And lastly this “omega blocker” what are the affects from this meaning does it block the arctic air from coming down and will it eventually begin to move away? Thanks and keep up the great work really love the website!