Dec 27 2012

Another Big East Coast Snowstorm After New Years?

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Matthew

Hey my name is Matthew Hatley. I am 16 and I always loved the weather ever since I was a baby. I used to stand at the door and watch the lightning during thunderstorms. I was a little chap when I used to do that. I am a meterologist for mainly the southeast but occasinally I do forecasts for the whole country. I do my best to give information about the weather to people who ask me what the weather will be like for the day, or the week. My favorite time of the year is winter. I do the best weather forecasting during the winter. I enjoy all of the people who view my forecast, but not only mine but all the other forecasters at Weatheradvance.com

23 comments

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Armando

December 27, 2012 at 1:00 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Yea this storm has everyone talking about and it looks good for the east, but not too good for i95, but we are a week away so much will change! Thanks for the update
jodie

December 27, 2012 at 1:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

so Jacksonville, NC will get some snow?? When is this suppose to occur!! wishing it was ALOT of snow but will take what we can get )
Eric

December 27, 2012 at 1:42 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

It is good to see other forecasters and the models starting to catch onto this idea for a potential winter storm over the southern US towards early January, which is something I have been outlining since December 23rd, although I think this storm in particular may effect the southern US more so than the northeastern US, and the models have been progressively coming around to this idea. It was only a few days ago that the models were keeping the main energy completely cut-off from the main jet stream to the north and east, or were trying to send it into a trough over the Pacific. Yesterday, they started to bring the storm out into the midwest, but still seem lost as to what to do with this energy. I think as we get the feedback from this current winter storm over the northeast and the next storm around the 30th, I would anticipate the models to show more winter weather over the southern US, and history shows in previous analog patterns from other winter storms over the southern US in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, that this trough of low pressure over the southwestern US is more likely to be confined to the southern US, but only time will tell if this is the case.
Eric

December 27, 2012 at 1:54 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Matthew I think is really onto something here though, as I took note of yesterday while at the PSU ewall site that we could in fact have a phasing of a polar trough and a mid-latitude trough with the energy sitting back over the southwestern US. This could lead to a very interesting situation for early January in the southern US and in the eastern US, with the potential for an arctic outbreak as well, due to the large trough phasing, interesting times ahead for sure, and I think it is better to wait a another day or two and receive the feedback into the models from these most recent snowstorms, and the one to come this weekend before I can really get a good idea of what’s going on, although this pattern does seem to support winter weather over the southern US, especially the southern plains.
clayton dial

December 27, 2012 at 2:24 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

hope we get that snow eric im from lumberton nc been reading your post for awhile now keep up the good work and you matthew
Eric

December 27, 2012 at 2:36 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ clayton dial
Thank you, although what I’m trying to say here is the southern US in general may be effected by a winter storm in early January, it is tough to pinpoint specific areas like a city or a county for example so far in advance, we shall see what happens as more specific details will become known as we approach January.
My Name is Michael

December 27, 2012 at 2:47 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Eric, d’ you think that Atlanta will see snow from this system? And if it will, how much?? Really lookin forward!!
Eric

December 27, 2012 at 3:29 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ My Name is Michael
I currently favor, if I had to pick anywhere in the south, the southern plains for snow, as they are more climatologically favored and with snow already on the ground form the previous storm system, but I’ll admit that there’s a considerable amount of uncertainty at hand on exact specifics on this storm as it is about a week or so away. Plus, the models still seem to be struggling with handling the energy sitting off the California coast, as there is not a whole lot of available data to put into the models, thus they have a tendency to flip-flop on scenarios in these kinds of situations, and I will feel more comfortable over the next few days when we start to get feedback from the models on the snows produced by the storm system currently over the northeast, and the one coming this weekend. What I am saying here is that in a general sense, the overall pattern favors the southern US for a winter storm in early January. Given the uncertainties, the specifics on the storm and who and how much snow a certain area will see is not wise to predict this far out in advance.
armando

December 27, 2012 at 4:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey Eric when you get a chance i posted something under this post which is called”canadian model says snowstorm”. ok anyway i just weatherbell and his newest post called”more winter heading into southern plains” got me both confused and excited. What i’m confused about was when he was describing the north and southern branch and other things. Whenever you get a chance check it out then please sum what he said if you could. I do get that if both features merge together something with a trough will dig deep enough and we could get a big winter storm for both south and east coast! Wow Eric you’re always onto something before anyone mentions it and 98% of time you’re always right! Wow great job indeed! So check it out when you get a chance! Also it just seems all attention has turned away from this weekend?! Is this storm looking good for us from most models? Thanks
Yamahas

December 27, 2012 at 6:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

So I guess this snow Saturday isn’t looking too good?? Twc says 1 inch now what a joke
John Michael

December 27, 2012 at 7:08 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Armando, expect 3-6 inches on Saturday. The storm looks to be too far east of the coast before it has enough time to strengthen .. Nonetheless, most areas from NJ to New England see anywhere from 2-6 inches.
Yamahas

December 27, 2012 at 7:08 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

And nobody has given an update on it here so I’m taking it as it’s not looking good
Yamahas

December 27, 2012 at 7:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Anyone need a snowblower real cheap?? Mines brand new never used. I’m gonna stick with what I said and write this winter off just like Rod Houston
AutoFill Rob

December 27, 2012 at 7:21 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I guess when they focus on a storm that’s at least 7-9 days away instead of one 2 days away then you know that 2 day away storm isn’t going to be much lol…thanks for an update j micheal..
jakob

December 27, 2012 at 11:06 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

i am just like you 16 and i love weather and always have, i almost got struck by lightning once because i was standing outside during a storm, i dream of becoming a stormchasing oneday, only time will tell. btw good job on the map
Maranda

December 28, 2012 at 5:39 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Will Jacksonville NC see any snow from this storm?
Cassie

December 29, 2012 at 12:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

When is this suppose to happen…..My weather show all 50s for highs in NC. Cassie
Eric

December 29, 2012 at 1:24 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Cassie and Maranda
Check this out, something I posted to Chintan, and since I also live in NC, I am very well of what’s going on. In my last post on December 23rd, i mentioned the potential for a winter storm over the southern US in early January based on pattern similarities at the 500 millibar level to other winter storms and it looks like the models are finally starting to come around to my idea. “I know exactly how you feel, living in south-central NC it can be frustrating, but interestingly, we have more snow on the ground now over the US than in any of the past 10 years, even in the good winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11. There will be a chance for wintry precip in early January over the south, as I’ve been saying since the 23rd of December, and even though no models at the time had showed any wintry weather over the southern US, based off of the conditions at comparisons with other patterns that produced winter storms over the southern US in 2009-10 and 2010-11. More specifically this pattern in the days preceding winter weather over the southern US at the 500 millibar level consisted of a general region of low pressure over eastern Canada extending eastward into the Atlantic, a region of low pressure laying over the southwestern US, ridging over western Canada and the northwestern US (+PNA), and a trough axis near or just west of the Gulf of Alaska. Now compare this with what is coming in the next few days, and you have to say to yourself, wow this looks a lot like those patterns I mentioned in my previous post on the 23rd.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12120.gif (12 Z GFS ensembles)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf150.html (6Z individual ensemble members snowfall accumulation) http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zsnowf150.html (0Z GFS individual ensemble members snowfall accumulation)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif (0Z ECMWF ensemble mean 850 millibar temp and PMSL, in this image you can see a wave of low pressure near Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and on the north and northwestern sides of this wave of low pressure towards the Carolinas, Tennessee, northern GA, northern AL, and northern MS, notice how temperatures at the 850 millibar level are just cold enough for winter precipitation, also with cold air getting infused aloft from Quebec and Ontario by the trough near Atlantic Canada, whatever snow falls could do so even with temperatures slightly above freezing in the mid 30s. )
The CMC also agrees with the DGEX, the newest is the most impressive yet, shows a nice band of snow developing near the I-20 corridor from Texas (even shows snow into northern Mexico) to the Carolinas. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f120.gif
With a models are starting to come around to my idea, I feel even more confident that some wintry weather will effect the southern US in early January, looks like January 2-3 will be the timeframe for this. It would be amazing if this happened, because I’ve had this idea out since the 23rd of December for a winter storm over the southern US in early January, well before the models or most other forecasters even considered this even happening.
Tim Johnson

December 29, 2012 at 2:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Eric I live in Raleigh NC and the forecast for when the storm hit say it will be in the mid 40s and the GFS model says mostly rain with maybe 1 inch of snow.I not very sure if it will snow in the south or not?
Eric

December 29, 2012 at 6:44 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ TIm Johnson
I also live in central NC and have seen some of the local forecasts, but given the CMC, the GFS ensembles, DGEX, and even ECMWF ensembles which show the potential for snow I think I’m leaning towards this happening. I also would be quite surprised if this doesn’t happen given some of the other analog patterns to 2010-11 and 2009-10, I think its just a matter of the models feeding back some of this information correctly, and with the storm system over the southwestern US where there isn’t a whole lot of surface data available, and given that the area of low pressure will be fairly weak, I think the models are having trouble “seeing” this relatively small-scale feature. Plus with arctic air pressing down from Quebec and Ontario, thanks to the trough east of Canada, there will be some getting enforces cold air aloft, so even if the temperatures are in the mid 30s, the precipitation may still fall as snow due to the atmospheric column having cold air aloft, and of course as we saw with one of the more recent systems, the models seem to be underestimating cold air advection near the surface, so I think we’ll see the models and the forecasts correct colder with time. I really don’t agree with some of the local forecasts showing temperatures in the mid -upper 40s, seems way too warm, I think we’ll at least be close to 40, if not in the 30s for this event.
Reid

December 30, 2012 at 12:30 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

So Eric and Matthew at what point do I start believing the models because from what I can tell it just looks like a lot of rain and nothing more. BTW I live in Lexington, SC so I would not be shocked if I didn’t get any snow.
Reid

December 30, 2012 at 12:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

P.S. Keep up the good work you guys do.
r

December 30, 2012 at 10:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

so will bufalo ny be affected by this?