The canadian has the storm more amped up as all the models have trended in that direction. GFS is a little too warm and the NAM a litle too dry. But The CMC, Ukmet are on board for at least a major snowstorm on and along I-95 from D.C to boston. Armando I think even your area could pick up on some snow. This is the type of storm that the closer you get to I-95 the better. I will wait until after the 12Z Euro runs before i make a snowfall prediction map. But things are looking better for those along I-95 and about 50mile northwest and about 25 miles southeast.
NOTE: CLICK ON THE PICTURE FOR A BETTER VIEW.
In and around New York City Snow is likely about 50 miles northwest of the city as well 25 southeast of it possibly too.
Loading tweets...
9 comments
Skip to comment form ↓
armando
December 27, 2012 at 11:45 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yamahas
December 27, 2012 at 12:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Armando
December 27, 2012 at 12:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yamahas
December 27, 2012 at 1:18 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
AutoFill Rob
December 27, 2012 at 1:19 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 27, 2012 at 1:32 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Thanks for your feedback and responses on the other blog, I greatly appreciate it. Honestly though, a lot of what I have learned in the weather over the years, I’ve taken from Joe Bastardi (and I am still learning) and by doing my own research into certain conditions and oscillations and factors that influence them. Now that you have a weatherbell, that will make things much easier for you, lol, and if I ever become an expert meteorologist one day, I’ll owe it to Joe Bastardi.
To respond to your questions, what I am actually trying to say in my previous response to you is that everything may be coming together towards late January and February. This idea is something I’ve had since at least December 9th, when I realized how the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly seemed to correlate with the meteorological winter (Dec 1-Feb28 (29)), where we started off December fairly warm over much of the US, then as we got into mid-December things cooled down a bit, but were still somewhat mild, and now we find ourselves in late December with a relatively cold pattern over much of the US, but indications are that this pattern may get even colder as we enter into the first week of January. However, like any good winter there obviously will be periods in which it must be milder (at least in comparison to the other parts of the winter) and this winter is going to be no exception. I actually looked into instances in which we saw a trough near Greenland (+NAO) line up with a trough near the eastern US, and in late January-mid February 1995 this occurred where a large trough was over the eastern US, with a general region of low pressure that extended well to the northeast towards Greenland and Iceland. This kind of trough alignment is quite rare as it is rather difficult for a polar trough and mid-latitude trough to vertically align because they are so far apart, also due to the fact that storm systems move eastward towards the arctic, while storms move westward in the mid-latitudes, and the differences in the amount of distance and difference in direction make it hard for this kind of set-up to occur. However, when it does occur, usually the mid-latitude trough becomes infused with very strong arctic air, and a strong storm system is the result in the mid-latitudes, but I do not think this kind of extreme scenario is going to happen due to all the conditions that have to line up, and the rarity of such a set-up occurring. Interestingly though, that trough alignment occurred during a stratospheric warming event, which is also what we’re beginning to see at the moment. In general, I think we are going to see a much colder pattern evolve over the relatively short-term as this storm system around the 30th will move fairly close to the northeastern US and produce snowfalls from the southern plains to Atlantic Canada, with totals in your area (I agree with Dante) being around 3-6 inches, but there is still some uncertainty and these may need to be adjusted with time. Also, as this storm system passes to the north and east it will get stuck under the transient block near the Hudson Bay, and in doing so, this will force the jet downstream all the way into the Pacific to buckle in response. As this low pressure meanders over eastern Canada it will become much larger and may take on characteristics of a large gyre of low pressure. If this occurs, then like the spokes of a wheel, Alberta Clippers will rotate around the base of this low pressure system as they feed off the differences in pressures and temperatures from western North America to eastern Canada and the northeastern US, and with each clipper system, light accumulations of snow may impact the upper midwest, Great Lakes, and northeast with each system reinforcing the arctic air that will be in place towards the northeastern US as we get into January. Beyond this timeframe, conditions over the US in general may moderate some, as the NAO and AO go positive (indicative of the cold air at the surface loading over the arctic thanks to the stratospheric warming event), and a more zonal flow may take over. However, this pattern would be short-lived as the cold continues to build over the arctic, and the breakdown of the polar vortex continues, and as you know, colder air induces pressure rises, which leads to a more -AO look, and with the potential for the polar vortex to completely breakdown, which is something that has not been seen in quite some time (as noted by Andrew of the weathercentre) this could lead to a very deeply negative crash of the AO (and NAO). Based off of what I noted in my post from December 9th, the 500 millibar pattern in December showed some similarities to 1984-85, which also had a complete collapse of the vortex and a major stratospheric warming event, (both of which have the possibility of occurring over the next several weeks), and as a result some of the coldest air of the 20th century moved into the US. Also, this idea for a rather cold period is supported by one of Dante’s most recent posts which made parallels to 2002-03 winter, which also had a major stratospheric warming event, and really became cold in late January through the rest of the winter. Although this type of pattern comparison to 1984-85 is rather extreme, certainly has the possibility of occurring starting towards late January given some of the conditions at hand and the history of these kind of events with the parallels in the overall patterns in other years like 2009-10, 2002-03, and 1984-85, all of which turned out to be very good winters for the US towards the 2nd half of winter (especially the eastern US). My ideas remain unchanged from early December, as I continue to think based off of all of this information above and other info provided in some of my posts, that the 2nd half of winter starting in late January, is going to much colder and snowier than the 1st half. If the conditions at hand and history prove to be true, then this could be a particularly cold pattern that sets up in the 2nd half of winter.
armando
December 27, 2012 at 3:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mike D
December 27, 2012 at 11:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mike D
December 27, 2012 at 11:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment