This will be six inches somewhere in mid-Atlantic coast the cause is something I like to call Atlantic enhancement but a general call for 3-5 inches for tommorow
Dec 28 2012
There will be 6 inches somewhere in the midatlantic
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Eric
December 28, 2012 at 2:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Thanks for the prediction, but I think if anywhere gets 6 inches of snow it is going to be towards southern New England around Connecticut, Rhode Island, and in Massachusetts, mainly from Boston and points south and east as the storm system that develops along the coast intensifies some, and in doing so, begins to move in a slightly more poleward motion and drags in more moisture for that region to the north and west side of the storm. I think areas of the mid-atlantic towards Washington and Baltimore will see less snow, with it mixing with rain or sleet at times, mainly a dusting-2 inches is a good call for that area. Also, another event, more minor event will be coming just after New Year’s with some similar areas being affected by that storm, although will less snowfall, likely more comparable to that in what we saw with the shortwave disturbance on Christmas Eve that dropped 1-2 inches over many areas of the northeast.
Jason Shaulov
December 28, 2012 at 2:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I was referring from Phili to NYC someone between will see 6 ,up into New England someone will see 9 or 10 inches
Eric
December 28, 2012 at 3:12 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Oh ok, usually I’m familiar with the region from generally Maryland, the Delmarva, and into the Virginias and even into NC being referred to as the “mid-atlantic”, perhaps our preferences and specifying specific regions are different, but I do like you’re thinking on this, I am kind of seeing some of the same things, although my thoughts on snowfall are not as aggressive as yours. I like the NAM’s 72 hour precipitation on this showing about .3-.5 inches of liquid equivalent falling, and with snowfall ratios likely below 1:10, closer to 1:7-1:8 due to the moisture content of the falling snow being higher this would give you about 2-4 inches of snow. You do have a valid idea that someone between NYC and PHI (or in and around these areas, especially towards NYC) may pick-up 6 inches due to more isolated and stronger precipitation and snowfall rates, but I have some doubts snowfall totals in areas, even in very isolated areas of southern New England will get 9-10 inches (if it occurs not too many areas are going to see it), I definitely think though we’ll probably see some totals, especially into southern New England, exceeding 6 inches.
Armando
December 28, 2012 at 3:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Pretty interesting and i would like to know any thoughts or opinions on this. Thanks
Jason Shaulov
December 28, 2012 at 5:01 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I like this forecasters thinking ,except the 4-7 along the coast of nj. He is just basing that off the GFS run but nice find.
Armando
December 28, 2012 at 5:09 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Jason Shaulov
December 28, 2012 at 5:34 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Not really just a 1-3incher next week for the places getting snow today but the south will be getting heavy rain out of the next one.
nathan sinclair
December 28, 2012 at 9:37 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yamahas
December 28, 2012 at 10:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Armando
December 28, 2012 at 10:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yamahas
December 28, 2012 at 10:43 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 2:22 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 9:36 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
You don’t need a region of low pressure to develop that far south to bring you heavy snows, southeastern New England just north and east of NYC will probably see snow totals exceed 6 inches, as this system quickly develops off the mid-altantic coast (which is happening now with the transfer of energy), and the low pressure area becomes a sub 990 millibar low pressure region off of the southern New England coast. This will allow for more moisture to be thrown in as the low pressure strengthens, and due to the storm strengthening thanks to a transfer of energy to the coast, a band of moderate-heavy snow will develop east of PA in NJ and move east-northeast with time, and as it does so, this band of snow will strengthen and become quite strong over southern New England. This type of situation will leave areas of eastern Pennsylvania (that includes Yamahas) with less snow, while areas to the east like NYC, Boston, Hartford, and Providence get more snow. I think NYC is going to end up with a moderate snowfall from this (only an inch is way too conservative) 3-5 inches with maybe 6, especially north and east of the city, interestingly this is exactly what Jason is predicting for this storm, and I strongly agree with his forecast in this instance.
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 11:02 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
chintan
December 29, 2012 at 12:20 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 12:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mike DiLeo
December 29, 2012 at 1:09 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 1:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 1:19 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I know exactly how you feel, living in south-central NC it can be frustrating, but interestingly, we have more snow on the ground now over the US than in any of the past 10 years, even in the good winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11. There will be a chance for wintry precip in early January over the south, as I’ve been saying since the 23rd of December, and even though no models at the time had showed any wintry weather over the southern US, based off of the conditions at comparisons with other patterns that produced winter storms over the southern US in 2009-10 and 2010-11. More specifically this pattern in the days preceding winter weather over the southern US at the 500 millibar level consisted of a general region of low pressure over eastern Canada extending eastward into the Atlantic, a region of low pressure laying over the southwestern US, ridging over western Canada and the northwestern US (+PNA), and a trough axis near or just west of the Gulf of Alaska. Now compare this with what is coming in the next few days, and you have to say to yourself, wow this looks a lot like those patterns I mentioned in my previous post on the 23rd.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12120.gif (12 Z GFS ensembles)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf150.html (6Z individual ensemble members snowfall accumulation) http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zsnowf150.html (0Z GFS individual ensemble members snowfall accumulation)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif (0Z ECMWF ensemble mean 850 millibar temp and PMSL, in this image you can see a wave of low pressure near Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and on the north and northwestern sides of this wave of low pressure towards the Carolinas, Tennessee, northern GA, northern AL, and northern MS, notice how temperatures at the 850 millibar level are just cold enough for winter precipitation, also with cold air getting infused aloft from Quebec and Ontario by the trough near Atlantic Canada, whatever snow falls could do so even with temperatures slightly above freezing in the mid 30s. )
The CMC also agrees with the DGEX, the newest is the most impressive yet, shows a nice band of snow developing near the I-20 corridor from Texas (even shows snow into northern Mexico) to the Carolinas. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f120.gif
With a models are starting to come around to my idea, I feel even more confident that some wintry weather will effect the southern US in early January, looks like January 2-3 will be the timeframe for this. It would be amazing if this happened, because I’ve had this idea out since the 23rd of December for a winter storm over the southern US in early January, well before the models or most other forecasters even considered this even happening.
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 1:32 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
That’s interesting because NYC is currently reporting 33 degrees with all snow, and around a half of an inch of accumulation already, and the heaviest band of snow is entering the city from NJ (as Mike DiLeo stated).
Central New Jersey Weather
December 29, 2012 at 4:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yamahas
December 29, 2012 at 5:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 5:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, at least you got snow, and 2 inches was under what I had initially anticipated yesterday, but closer to what I thought today (in my response to Armando on Dante’s blog) when I lowered my initial ideas for snow accumulation from 3-5 to 2-4 inches. That changeover to rain can be attributed to warmer air coming in aloft as the rate of precipitation slowed (evaporative cooling slows) and as the developing low pressure area along the coast forced warmer air inland. Although areas of southern New England and into Atlantic Canada look to get the brunt of this storm with many areas likely seeing over 6 inches of snow.
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 5:18 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Thank you so much for that, I’ve really been wondering what some of the snow totals were, I honestly wish more people would share what they saw. I think you did pretty good with this storm, other surrounding locations in your area saw totals closer to 2-3 inches, so I guess it’s your first “official snowstorm” for the season, lol.
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 5:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 5:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
The reason for that is probably due to Manhattan’s low elevation, and with surrounding warmer water, and the UHI effect, these probably all contributed to seeing rain. I did notice on radar, like in Washington, there was a bit of green showing up on radar in the inner city, and with all of these factors considered, the temperature may have been only a degree or so higher, and that may have been all it took for any snow to change over to some rain, especially when the temperature is already at critical levels for snow. Some of the snowfall reports to the west of the city in NJ indicate that snow accumulated to around 2-3 inches or so, with some localized variability.
Yamahas
December 29, 2012 at 6:00 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 6:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 6:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, I’m glad you’re enjoying it, I’m kind of jealous here in south-central NC that we don’t have any snow, lol, but my thinking is that could change in early January.
Armando
December 29, 2012 at 6:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Central New Jersey Weather
December 29, 2012 at 7:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 7:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Wow, that’s awesome, ironically Yamahas said he also got 4.5 inches of snow, funny how that works out. Looks like my last forecast I made today was wrong then for 2-4 inches (I knew I should have stuck with my initial thoughts), hats off to Jason though, his forecast was pretty much spot on, 3-5 inches (maybe 6) between Philadelphia and New York, and it looks like he certainly got this one right. (not the first time he’s beat me in a forecast though). Yeah, I hope this system coming on the 3rd drops some snow over my area, but it is going to be a tough one to call, but in case you have not seen some of the recent runs of the ECMWF, CMC. and GFS, and their ensembles, they are showing snow over the south with this system in early January, and wow would that be something to see my forecast from the 23rd verify for a winter storm over the south in early January when most other forecasters (although Matthew did mention this) did not even consider this a legitimate possibility. I honestly don’t see another storm like this one occurring over the next few weeks, but there will be a system just after New Year’s that will bring lots of clouds and perhaps a few flurries or so, but nothing major. Other than that, you’re going to see a major arctic outbreak from Quebec and Ontario with temperatures possibly tumbling well into the single digits, and with any wind, it is going to feel really cold out there to start January! After this, we are liable to see things warm up some (although not to the levels of early December) and as result, the storm track should shift back to the north and west towards the Rockies, midwest, and Great Lakes where I think the threat for winter weather will increase once again as this pattern starts to change. However, with this stratospheric warming event loading cold air into northern North America by mid January, any warm-up that occurs will be short-lived and if arctic from this event does come into the US, could lead to quite the clash in airmasses, thus the concern will arise once again towards late January and into February for more intense storm systems. Interestingly though, February is usually the snowiest month for much of the northeast, and the analog years for winter patterns like 1978-79, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2009-10 all had some cold in December, a warm-up during mid-winter, and then the worst of the winter came towards February, which is when I think this winter will be the coldest and snowiest. This is also supported by the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly for October which went well above normal the 2nd half of October (potentially indicative of how cold the 2nd half of winter may become). Also, I found something very interesting regarding these analog years and the following hurricane season.
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 7:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, you definitely beat me in this instance, I guess sometimes you have to trust the locals who know a little more about these kind of events through previous experience. (which is something I lack as this is really only my first year in forecasting, I should get better with increasing time) It certainly looks like what you observed was localized as Armando who lives in north-central NJ picked up 4.5 inches of snow. Also, I do think you’re statement about waiting until late January and February has merit as I do make mention of this in my recent response to Armando above.
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 7:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
That’s interesting, because up towards where Armando is at north-central NJ, he’s got over 4 inches of snow, so it looks like there was certainly a tight gradient in snowfall totals from ESE to WNW.
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 7:52 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 8:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, I’m familiar with the 80s and 90s, and most of the winters were not too fun for much of the US, and that can be partially attributed to the low snowpack over the northern hemisphere and Siberia in October, this year, we are well above normal, and along with other factors like the stratospheric warming event, I certainly agree with you here in saying that you will probably see some larger snowstorms later in winter, but 2010 was certainly an anomaly, and we likely won’t see anything like that during our lifetimes again (or will we?)
AutoFill Rob
December 29, 2012 at 8:44 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 29, 2012 at 8:54 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, I will certainly have to dig into the patterns that set-up for big snowstorms over the northeast, and when the time does come for this, I will try and give comparisons, like I did for the southern US.
Mitchell West
December 29, 2012 at 9:12 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
nc. I heard from weather advances Twitter account that there is suppose to be a warm up in mid Jan. I’m really ready for some snow. I’m sure your eager for it too.
Armando
December 29, 2012 at 9:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
John Michael
December 30, 2012 at 12:04 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
December 30, 2012 at 12:15 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I know I said I didn’t see any major storms coming, and although I recognized Joe Bastardi has been pushing for a major phasing event near the east coast, I didn’t really buy it, however, I am starting to have very strong second thoughts on this. Here’s what I said at weatherbell
“I’m actually a little concerned by the new GFS run and I think Joe Bastardi is really onto something here, as it seems to be slower with the energy in the northern branch, and allows for the energy in the subtropical jet stream to catch up, and even though you do not see a “big storm” the oncoming arctic air associated with the clipper system could make all the difference in this one. It is these kinds of situations, where it can be hard to forecast (this is only amplified with the subtropical energy over the southwestern US limited surface data, and a trough of low pressure barely hanging onto the jet stream, and as I said in an earlier comment, all it is going to take is one shortwave disturbance (like a clipper system), and then we are faced with a situation that could yield a monster storm, but there is a considerable amount of uncertainty with this system. By the looks of how things are starting to play out, Joe Bastardi may be right in saying a major phasing event takes place near the eastern US, but only time will tell.
Eric
December 30, 2012 at 12:21 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I posted that there would be a warm up in mid January, and many of the factors like the 30 day sunspot cycles, NAO, AO, and similarities to analog winters like 1978-79, 1995-96, 2002-03, and 2009-10, were all winters in which there was cold early towards December, a warm-up mid winter, then the worst of the winter cold cam towards late January and through February. I’m currently monitoring a system, the same one I’ve been harping on since the 23rd of December for winter weather over the southern US in January.(as you’ve seen in my post) and this system will bare watching over the next several days, but go look at what I said in the comment above to Armando and John Michael, I do have a few renewed concerns about this storm.
armando
December 30, 2012 at 12:49 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
AutoFill Rob
December 30, 2012 at 5:10 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mitchell West
December 30, 2012 at 7:55 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Armando
December 30, 2012 at 5:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment