Jan 03 2013

Computer Model Analysis Later Today

I will have a computer model analysis later today. Stay tuned.

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About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

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Rick

January 7, 2013 at 3:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I have no doubt that after this upcoming warm up we will see a respectable time period of below average temperatures, the NAO and especially AO are likely to go back to negative. The PNA however is also forecasted to move towards negative, so we will just be back to a favorable atlantic and unfavorable pacific. The important thing to remember here is cold doesn’t always mean snow, the important thing to watch will be the gulf of mexico, if it keeps sending high pressure to the southeast coast then we will likely see another warmup soon follow with no big storms in between.
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 4:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Dustin
Extreme warmth in most of the US for the rest of winter.
Eric

January 7, 2013 at 4:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
“You were right?” Lol, you clearly stated “So remember I told u philly has gotten less than an inch so far?” and then you say this ” the PHI INTL airport where the daily records are recorded and he said 1.1″ of snow.”
Now, that is NOT less than 1 inch, so you are still wrong.
Eric

January 7, 2013 at 4:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
Well, if the cold air isn’t as bad as he thought, that may actually be a good thing for snow in your area considering how you made claims that when cold hits “all the storms get pushed out to sea” lol, and at this point, it is not even worth arguing with you because of your excessive ignorance, because no matter what I say you’re not going to change your mind, even if you are completely wrong.
armando

January 7, 2013 at 4:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Yamahas really what in the heck are you talking about? His video mentioned whats going to happen with storms not cold. How many times has he said the cold?I think he stressed it so much that everyone should know by now and he can take a break from the cold (for one day) and talk about an active storm pattern. Look Rick is right we have everything coming in our favor with all the oscillations! If you don’t get what i’m saying here is that look whats going on right now with a STRATOSPHERIC WARMING, and a third one about to happen which even pushes that cold to make it even more colder! If you haven’t done so check out liveweatherblogs.com and read about the upcoming storm around the 15-20! I mean hey if you’re a naysayer this should pick up your “winter spirit”! This storm could happen because now the cold should be setting in the same time as this storm is brewing plus the NAO to crash so hey look at that it seems everything could be in our favor for that to happen! Also Yamahas and others who lost faith for the cold I STRONGLY RECOMMEND you to go to WEATHERCENTRE and read about the MAJOR COLD coming later Jan-Feb! That should help you guys and Yamahas if you still don’t believe it than ok your loss not mine! Guys there is a winter this year so those who are like me you all know whats coming! I can’t wait!!!
Rod Houston

January 7, 2013 at 4:12 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Storms could get suppressed to the south? That means there will not be that much snow in the Midwest?
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 4:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
http://models.weatherbell.com/cfs/2013010706/conus/cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2013010706_141.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation.php
http://models.weatherbell.com/cfs/2013010706/conus/cfs_snow_max_conus_2013010706_week.php

The end of winter? Suit yourself!
BTW, Joe Bastardi didn’t sound worried at all.
AutoFill Rob

January 7, 2013 at 4:21 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

DING!!! Round three! I think round 1 was split…but clearly round 2 went to big E…the thrilla in weather I’ll call it! Exciting! lmao
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 4:24 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
Couldn’t have said it better myself!
armando

January 7, 2013 at 4:34 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Haha thanks Mike D! Yea I mean hey if he doesn’t believe it than so let it be what you going to do with stubborn people eh? Hey Mike D did you see the storm on the GFS for later next week? I got a little excited their and it actually has a good chance of happening because thats when the cold air should be making its way to us so we just have to wait and see! Also the NAO should be neg right around that time so if everything does come together the NAO will only aid it significantly! And that means the first (possibly biggest) storm of 2013! O and mike I agree with Eric i like how you sum up things and it makes it very easy to understand! great job!
Yamahas

January 7, 2013 at 4:37 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Eric. Actually I was right Eric about the 1″. As we were in the middle of our fight last night the official daily total isn’t announced till 11:59 at night which clearly we were arguing b4 that time which means till 11:59 there was officially only .4″ of snow to date. Thank you!!
Eric

January 7, 2013 at 4:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
You are very delusional, you clearly stated LESS than one inch, had you stated NEAR one inch, then I could see your argument, and using simple elementary school math, one easily discovers that 1.1 is NOT less than one, so your argument is already false, the snow in November counts correct? According to the website showing the links I posted to snow depth maps, there was about 2 inches of snow near Philadelphia with the November 8th storm, so you are still wrong. (can’t believe you continue to drag this on, you are making yourself look foolish, lol)
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 4:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
Thanks! And yeah that storm looks like a beautiful setup. Even other models are hinting at it too! Even if we don’t get this one theres plenty more to come!
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 5:00 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
Drop it already. Does 0.6 inches really matter to you? Well, maybe it does for where Eric lives (haha). Look at this pattern! Oh wait, you’re staring right through it. You don’t get how remarkable this is going to be! Using your opinions for fights is awful, because you have no facts, so stay out of this conversation. Don’t ruin this pattern for all of us. If your right about this winter, you have bragging rights, if you’re wrong, as usual, do not mention this again, unless your laughing at yourself for being wrong or apologizing for calling the forecasters idiots.
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 5:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Eric
He has already made himself look like a foolish rookie, so he’s got nothing to lose.
Yamahas

January 7, 2013 at 5:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Eric. Yes less than 1″. In my math .4 is less than 1″ and your crazy there wasn’t any snow in November in Philly! It rained at the airport so again I’m right. If u were really boxing me u would have been knocked out already cuz you’ve been beat down 3 times already. Stop using sites that say there was snow and actually go to the nws where records are kept. Again ur 400 miles away I’m 25 from Philly so I think I know what it did in November.
Eric

January 7, 2013 at 5:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando and other bloggers
You really summed things up there, lol, you and Mike D really have a strong passion for weather (like all of us here) and it really shows in your posts. Also, I will explain in my post why the stratosphere is going to have another major warming event in the longer ranges, and it has a lot do with the MJO, southern Indian and southern Pacific tropical activity, the SOI, and the Kelvin Wave.
In fact, just to prove my theory about Kelvin Waves correct, I want you to watch this animation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif of the 10 millibar temperatures in the stratosphere. Now, we had the Kelvin Wave in the 2nd week of December, and notice towards the start of the animation the warmth that is setting up over the eastern Pacific. This is because the latent heat energy being released by the Kelvin Wave has nowhere to go but upwards in the atmosphere to counteract the excess heat energy, and considering warmer air rises, makes sense as to why we are seeing warming over the eastern Pacific in the stratosphere because of the Kelvin Wave. Now, I want you to follow that warming across the tropics, notice how it moves across the Atlantic, through Africa, and then once it hits Asia, the warmth explodes. Makes sense as to why the warming would suddenly occur over Asia because of the stronger snowpack near the surface, reflects solar radiation, cools the surrounding air, thus with colder air, air molecules take up less space and become more tightly packed. In doing so, you allow for more air molecules to be confined to a given space, thus it gives the air more “weight” and the pressures rise. This colder air near the surface and in the lower troposphere means that the specific layer in the atmosphere takes up less space, and in order to compensate, other levels of the atmosphere expand to fill the void. With the air expanding, it tends to warm as air molecules move more freely about, but with the addition of already warmed air from the Kelvin Wave propagating across the Atlantic, and through Africa, once this already warmed air reaches Asia it should warm substantially in response, and it is no wonder now as to why the warming event occurred in such a remarkable fashion over Asia towards late December.
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 5:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
Boxing? Really? Are you kidding? You’re relating this to boxing? BTW, it doesn’t matter where he lives. He is a meteorologist. For all you know, he could live in China and know how much it snowed in Philly. So if that’s your comeback, you lose once again.
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 5:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
That comparison is totally irrelevant to the weather, and clearly, your one of the “99% of the people” (Another lie) who craps on us. Thanks a lot.
Eric

January 7, 2013 at 5:30 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
I do not say this often, but you really are not very smart at all, and are making yourself look more and more foolish as you continue to drag this on lol, just admit you were wrong. Can you provide any justification to it NOT snowing in Philadelphia in November?, because the this site begs to disagree with you http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Eastern_Coastal/nsm_depth/201211/nsm_depth_2012110805_Eastern_Coastal.jpg
and this one http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/sandy-sequel-new-storm-hits-new-york-new-jersey–9500.html

and this one http://www.examiner.com/article/sandy-sequel-impacts-recovery-and-election-day-weather?CID=examiner_alerts_article

and this one http://www.climatecentral.org/news/snowstorm-strikes-northeast-just-one-week-after-hurricane-sandy-15217

and this one (shows radar clearly showing snow over Philadelphia in early November) http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20121107november_7_2012_snowstorm_maps__totals_so_far

and this one http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2229316/East-Coast-fresh-chaos-thousands-stranded-power-Sandy-victims-hit-snow-storm.html

and this one http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012/11/08/tens-thousands-homes-and-businesses-lose-power-again-some-transit-services/

and this one http://wwwmasterkif.blogspot.com/2012/11/its-like-sequel-to-horror-movie-east.html

I could honestly do this all day, lol. So once again, another false claim of yours bites the dust. “If u were really boxing me u would have been knocked out already cuz you’ve been beat down 3 times already.” That’s too bad, especially considering my opponent (you) is laying on the ground unconscious.

“Stop using sites that say there was snow and actually go to the nws where records are kept.”
Oh, I’m sorry, I’m actually using sites that disprove your claims? Oh yeah, by the way, just in case you couldn’t figure it out, the links I posted yesterday in this post are from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, which is a branch of the National Weather Service, another baseless claim by Yamahas dismantled.
“It’s funny how weather guys won’t take blame when their wrong.” That’s funny because EVERY claim you have made the last few days has been utterly wrong, from winter being over to me not using the NWS, when the links I posted were in fact from the NWS, and then of course you lied about not posting until winter is over, seems like you can even predict what you’re going to do, nonetheless the weather, lol. Constantly denying reality, making baseless claims, Ad hominem attacks, you obviously are a troll and any credibility and respect you had from everyone here at this site before you started this a few days ago is completely and utterly gone, just like your latest comment.
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 5:39 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
I’ve really been hitting you w/ info and comments as you have with nasty groundless ideas, and to “turn your ship” a little more, as if you have gone overboard already, with just the nor’easter after the hurricane, freehold New Jersey received 13 inches of snow. Thats barely 5 miles inland from the beach. Gosh, have you lived in many winters starting like this one. Nope! no arguing with that one.
Rod Houston

January 7, 2013 at 6:38 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Yamahas@
Please be quiet. You said that” Your one of 99% of people in the real world talk crap on you guy” Really? And what are you comparing to something that has nothing to do with weather at all. Be quiet and trying to ruin for everybody that wants to see what could happen to the weather pattern and I know that Eric does way more research than what you will ever do.
Rod Houston

January 7, 2013 at 6:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I meant to say stop trying to ruin for everybody.
Andrew

January 7, 2013 at 7:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Don’t go off on Eric, he is one of the most intelligent weather bloggers I know to date. His knowledge surpasses mine in quite a few areas, to be frank. If someone is to know what’s going on with the weather, it’s Eric. I see no reason to bash him and cause a stir not meant for someone like him.
AutoFill Rob

January 7, 2013 at 7:47 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Trying to figure out the weather is hard enough…I might tease here and there but I won’t ever disrespect him for a bad forecast…nothing in life is guaranteed(especially the weather),and only the one upstairs could fully know…I think Eric,jason,and the rest of the meteorologist on here do a better job than those guys on t.v….
Mitchell West

January 7, 2013 at 8:01 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

correct me if I’m wrong but didnt that yamahas dude say like several comments up that he wasn’t going to post anything else on here til winter showed up or didn’t show up? Dude its a loosing battle just give it up already.
Mitchell West

January 7, 2013 at 8:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

he said he wouldnt post anything else til spring…so don’t man
Eric

January 7, 2013 at 8:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob, Mitchell West, and Andrew
Thank you all for backing me up, don’t even know how much I appreciate it. Andrew, all of the bloggers here and I love your posts, and interestingly, your knowledge of weather does surpass mine in many areas, and if it wasn’t for him, I would still be probably scratching my head for reasons as to why this winter would be back-loaded, but thanks to him posting the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly, (outstanding job on the winter thus far, you beat me for the December forecast, I thought it would be cold, but you were right in saying it would be warm, you deserve a lot of credit for that) and I absolutely love the graphics you produce in your post!! I may use a few of them in my new post with the ideas we’ve had for quite some time now for the potential of cold like 1984-85, although extreme, definitely a legitimate possibility.
Tim Johnson

January 7, 2013 at 9:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

UGH It doesn’t look very cold for the eastern U.S in the longer range models. We have a dreaded southeastern ridge and it looks like it doesn’t want to go away. Once we do get that dreaded southeastern ridge, the Midwest would get mightily cold while the East would only be chilly but nothing arctic cold. Looks this might not be a big deal for the East coast.
Rod Houston

January 7, 2013 at 9:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Andrew said that the cold could be just like 1985? Some of the Models have the Polar vortex over southern Canada into the U.S. That means record lows in the Midwest?
armando

January 7, 2013 at 10:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

OK wow Eric I had no idea you were only 16! i mean I’m shocked because you are so INTELLIGENT especially when it comes to weather o my! Wow i thought you were like in your late 20′s! I’m as well 16 and thats pretty funny! So anyway i read this little post on NEW ENGLAND WEATHER WORKS, and it caught my attention. Once I was done reading it I had no idea what was going on but to sum it up they are watching a system to come out of the gulf around the 15th, at the SAME time some tropical moisture out to sea could merge with the other storm and would that mean a HUGE snowstorm for the east coast? love to hear your opinion on this! I’m puzzled so here i will put the link here :

http://m.facebook.com/pages/New-England-Weather-Works/316340155055468?id=316340155055468&_rdr#!/photo.php?fbid=510443678978447&id=316340155055468&set=a.472996112723204.102669.316340155055468&%24MURI__user=0
Mike D

January 7, 2013 at 10:42 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
I’m 12. In case you didn’t know. U are 16. I never have thought you were the same age as Eric. I wondrously how old Yamahas is. Because he acts as if he was 5.
Armando

January 7, 2013 at 10:50 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

No way mike i thought you were same age if not older! Wow what a day lol! You know so much and act very mature nice work! So do you follow new england weather works? If not i suggest you do because they update our area everyday and and they made a post about if a storm merges with the moisture we could get a bomg of the coast like im talking a big blizzard! Thats really exciting but its 10 days away so anything could happen! You should check it out! Also its a facebook page!
AutoFill Rob

January 7, 2013 at 11:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Mike D is 12?! Geez!! I’m not saying my age cuz guys on here will think I’m a fossil!!! Ughhh..well anyway hopefully that merge comes to fruition cuz we need something big to make up for some of our lack of snow!!
armando

January 9, 2013 at 11:05 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Ok So i’m not sure if it’s just me, but has anyone heard about this potential major storm around the 20th? I’m hearing if it interacts with the tropical moisture and also cold air will be arriving just right before it could be the biggest storm in years! Also with a negative NAO and a rex block it’s the perfect setup, we just need this to come true. So Eric will this storm be in your new post, and what is your opinion on that storm? Also I recommend you to watch stephen boyle newest video, some great stuff! Thanks Eric