Jan 08 2013

For Those Bailing Out On This Winter Already… Take Note….

I’ve seen several people on several different forums writing this winter off already. Even here on weatheradvance.com But I want to bring out just a few points to why I think otherwise.

Winter Has JUST started: Meteorological winter started December 1st but, officially winter didn’t start until just a few days ago. Yet we have already have had a major snowstorm in Coastal New Jersey, (after sandy) and have just had A major snowstorm in the interior sections of the northeast. Winter actually could be considered ahead of schedule.

Last Few Winters (09′-10′ & 10′-11′) Has Spoiled People: Most people use to be content with a good 3-6″ of snow from a snowstorm and the occasional 4-8″. But after the 3 Blizzards in the 2009-2010 winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and major snowstorms back to back to back in the 2010-2011 winter, most people think that its a bad winter if you get under 12″ of snow in one storm. But in all actuality could we just be seeing things finally returning back to normal? I think that is what has happened this year. I still think you will see above-average snowfall this winter in the eastern half of the nation especially the east coast but you will see it come in smaller sizes besides in February and March when I think winter will amp up.

November Was Bellow Average Temperature Wise In The Eastern Half Of The Nation: Many people who have said it has been so warm, have already forgotten that November Was MUCH colder than average in the eastern half of the nation. Actually NORTH CAROLINA had its 10th Coldest winter on record. Compared To Last Year Where the Eastern Half of the US was Its 10th WARMEST on record. Folks, this is NOT 2011-2012 winter all over
again. This actually looks closer to the winter of 2002-2003, if you are comparing Novembers. Which ended up being cold and snowier than average as well.

I have constantly compared this winter to the one of 2002-2003 because of its similarities. Be patient folks.

Already Had Several Eastern Major Snowstorms: A lot of people have not noticed that already there have been a few snow storms that have occurred in the Eastern half of the Nation. Lets take a look…

New Jersey East Coast Snowstorm- It delivered a good 4-6″ plus of snow in eastern areas of Pennsylvania New Jersey and Northern Delaware, including also NYC and Connecticut. 3 Inches fell in Philadelphia and upwards of a foot in New England.
Christmas Clipper- While this storm was relatively small and left a general 1-3″ Of snow in areas of Pennsylvania its still snow that most did not have last year.
Post Christmas Snowstorm- This storm left areas from the Big cities (coating to 3″ of snow) To Interior states (6-12″+ of Snow) into Pennsylvania and New York State.
Lets not forget the potential snow events for 12/28-12/31 and 01/01-01/04 storm. That’s 5 snow systems for some areas of the northeast that did not receive more than 2″ of snow last year,
New Jersey Snow (November)

Long Range Models Show plenty of cold air: The long range models, GFS, Euro are both showing cold air spilling into the eastern half of the nation for the next few weeks. The NAO is positive and the AO is positive, but you must remember that weather is a lot more than just the NAO and AO, If a cold front passes and pulls down cold air behind it and another storm comes right behind it. The previous storm serves as a block, in this case you don’t really need the negative NAO. You just better hope the PNA is positive. There are a lot of factors that go into the storms than just the NAO and AO and PNA. Anyway when you look at the long range models it is cold in the east and warm in the west. Which means that there will be opportunities for snow even in the southeast, including northern Georgia and Carolina.

cold air on GFS To Start January

Models Often Underestimate Cold Air in the Winter: As we have seen with the past two storms over the past 3 days (December 24th-26th) The Models had greatly underestimated the cold air that is present for these storms. This has often been the case in winters past. It continues to be the case this year as well. For example, we at weatheradvance.com preached that I-95 would get snow from this December 26th storm for about 4-5 days before, and that some would stick, contrary to what the models said, why? Because of the cold air that was present, that the models didn’t pick up. They have done that often. Forecasting is so much more than watching models. Its the conditions surrounding the area of weather as well. (Example, is the high pressure to the west or East of the area that the foretasted storm is coming in and how strong is the high, how strong will the low be?)

NAO, AO and PNA: While only the PNA is favorable now the NAO and AO were favorable for about a month. Why isn’t there reason the believe they will be again? When I track the NAO and AO during the summer, its not for no reason at all. You look for the pattern that these get into. I constantly stated that the NAO looks to be in a favorable pattern, the NAO has been for the most part Neutral or Negative. Its popped positive here and there, but nothing drastic. The NAO is projected to be slightly positive for now. But I think that will change as we head into February. The AO seems to have developed a pattern now. It goes negative for about a month, then goes positive for half a month, then goes back negative. Well have to wait and see if this continues but it looks as if it is in its positive half a month period now.

These are just a few reasons you should not be so quick to give up on this winter of 2012-2013 as there are a lot of positive things here already this year that were not here last year. And this winter is looking similar to the one that we had in 2002-2003 which really did not pick up until late January and that carried on until Early March. I think the same will happen this year. Winter is just getting started folks and it looks to be on the right track!

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About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

45 comments

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armando

December 26, 2012 at 11:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Great post Dante you couldn’t put it together any better than this! Yea I totally agree you people just give up because they are fooled by the models! Most of the time they’re inconsistent, but people just tend to rely on models then when a arctic outbreak occurs everyone is flabbergasted! I guess for most it’s just seeing is believing. Well Dante i’ve learned so much from you and Eric! So Eric replied back to me about this upcoming pattern especially these next two storms. The first one, does it have a good chance of just moving northward and i guess giving a swath of 3-6″ to mainly the mid atlantic and could it strengthen? Also does the one next week look interesting because Eric has been saying that for a few days now and he seems right on this! Pretty exciting winter! Great post Dante
Dan

December 27, 2012 at 2:05 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Do you see northwest indiana getting a good snow storm before the season is over? i live right off lake michigan about 20 from michigan and about 50 miles east of chicago..
Eric

December 27, 2012 at 2:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Dante I have to tell you this was a great post, I agree with everything you said on here, pretty much sums up my thoughts, it’s like you’re reading my mind, lol. I can also tell you put a lot of time and effort into it, great job.
chris v

January 8, 2013 at 9:06 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I really enjoy reading all of yalls post and love weather myself. Just not the best at forecasting it. Thought maybe someone could answer a few for me. Is there a chance for snow in south central VA this year how cold could it get with this new pattern and how long will it last ready for winter to kick it in four wheel drive and get wild not mild
Rick

January 8, 2013 at 9:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

What ever happened to the el nino?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Maranda Gotcher

January 8, 2013 at 11:05 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

When will Jacksonville nc get some snow?
Yamahas

January 9, 2013 at 9:59 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Wow it got pretty boring in here without me. So I guess I’ll spice things up again. So if u go on weatherbell JB doesn’t really have much to talk about. His videos have been short and he’s not very excited anymore. He sees and here’s the comments people are making and I think he’s finally realizing this winter for the East anyways was a BUST!! The cold is pushed back to February now so if guys can’t get this thru your heads maybe you should get off the computers stop looking at the models and step outside to reallity. Birds are singing spring has sprung!
Yamahas

January 9, 2013 at 10:09 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

So I’m starting my own weather website it’s gonna be called YOUR WEATHER and I’ll only charge everyone $4.99 a month. That’s cheap!! Here’s how it works it’s very simple. I’ll write blogs and make a video every morning telling people if u wanna know what the weather will be that day just step outside and find out for yourself and guess what!? I’ll always be right. So sign up now it’s only $4.99 and worth every penny.
Rick

January 9, 2013 at 11:25 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

^ wishcasting is still wishcasting even if its on the other side of the spectrum. And why are you subscribed to weather bell if you don’t agree with joe bastardi’s meteorology? Sounds like an unwise investment. It’s clear you were very disappointed by some good ole meteorological over hype sometime in the past, so here’s a tip that I think you will benefit and learn a little from; if you don’t want an opportunity to learn about atmospheric phenomena beyond when it’s going to snow in your backyard, then stick your head out the window and shut up. If you use the resources that science and technology has provided us and keep in mind that it is just that, then you don’t need to hang on to every model run and meteorologists video post, hyped or unhyped. Because then your learning, not getting worked up over whether it will snow or not. If its warm then look at the south east ridge being produced by the cooler waters off the western coast of South America rather then just jumping to conclusions that its spring, because that’s astronomically impossible. And you know what?You can find that out for free.
Rick

January 9, 2013 at 11:36 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

On a meteorological note, as I had said on a previous post we have yet to see that the strat warming will effect our side of the globe, much less even our side of the country. Or whether there will be much effect from the warming at all. Meanwhile Eurasia continues to see very below average temperatures.
Yamahas

January 9, 2013 at 11:37 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Sounds like Rick is upset the weather isn’t doing what everyone keeps telling him it’s suppose to do!!! You can only wish for so long Rick. Here’s a tip Rick, wish for a better winter next year. You have 11 more months. That’s alot of wishing!!
Rick

January 9, 2013 at 11:49 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Sounds like you check this website pretty often for someone who doesn’t care about weather
Yamahas

January 9, 2013 at 11:52 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Rick. I check it everyday bcuz I actually do care about the weather.
Yamahas

January 9, 2013 at 11:56 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I know I gave Eric a hard time but I actually do like him and think he will be a great meteorologist one day.
derickeugeneree

January 9, 2013 at 1:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

well there you go again yamahas.
Rick

January 9, 2013 at 1:32 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Don’t just give someone a hard time without presenting anything to support your side of the argument. There’s nothing to gain from that.
Mike D

January 9, 2013 at 3:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Yamahas, you’re hilarious! In Joe’s video today, he totally opposed your ideas as he has been, and BTW it was not short.
Tim Johnson

January 9, 2013 at 3:40 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

This winter doesn’t look very good. The models and everything has changed over the last 24 hours. It look from very good for cold and snow to just horrible. The MJO has no signs of going to 8 anytime soon. I wounder if every models says warmth now?
Tim Johnson

January 9, 2013 at 4:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Sorry I thought that all the models show warmth. The GFS model is the only models that is warm and I hope it’s a model error.
Mike D

January 9, 2013 at 4:24 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Tim Johnson
This is a very difficult pattern to predict. You are probably right, a model error. It hasn’t shown it the past week except for now, yet even its ensemble members are still showing cold in the coming weeks. Since it is only the operational that is showing that trend, I make a note, but until other models show the same trend, don’t buy it just yet.
Wasi

January 9, 2013 at 4:48 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

It looks like winter is over. I see PNA going negative. Do you think that it will go positive again?
AutoFill Rob

January 9, 2013 at 5:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Has the GFS ever been right about ANYTHING?? Get rid of that se ridge n we’ll be in business! I think we’re having a nice surprise in hr142!
AutoFill Rob

January 9, 2013 at 6:01 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

And I stuck my head out the window today………its WARM!
Nathan Sinclair

January 9, 2013 at 6:56 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I was checking out many different websites and I’ve started see a system around the 18-22 of january bringing significant snow totals and alot of colder temperatures. Because the canadian block is going to creep down to about northern indiana and southern michigan on the 19. The freezing mark is suppose to be as far south as northern North Carolina.
Mike D

January 9, 2013 at 8:19 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zensp002snow228.gif

18z GFS Ensemble member for 228 hours on Friday, January 18, 2013. For all the snow lovers on the east coast, this may be the one. This member pretty much sums up my ideas, though I think the snow axis may be a bit farther NW.
Tim Johnson

January 9, 2013 at 8:36 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

A compete 180 from yesterdays forecast. The models were showing very cold air for most of the U.S. Now it shows a warming trend to take place. I don’t want to rule this winter out but chances are we are out of luck for this winter. I hope next year will be way different from this winter.
Mike D

January 9, 2013 at 8:45 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I can try to help you….where do you live? I know you can’t trust anyone on the internet, so just the area is ok. Then I will try to reassure you.
Nathan Sinclair

January 9, 2013 at 9:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I live in Chesapeake,VA and their predicting about maybe 3-6 inches or 4-8 depending on temperature. places like Philadelphia,PA are going to see 6+ inches of snow on the 18-22 same as southern virginia central virginia could see 4-8 inches also.
Tim Johnson

January 9, 2013 at 9:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Looks like the MJO will be at an 5 and 6 again in the next couple of weeks. That southeastern ridge will keep temperatures warm and keep the east coast snowless. I know that we were doomed right from the beginning. The stratosphere warming doesn’t mean anything for us atleast this time. No cold for any models at all and the PNA will also stay negative. I know that most of the U.S had more snow than last year but atleast with last year, we didn’t get hopes hopes up so much. Even Andrew is backing down from major cold and snow. This winter for the East coast is a major bust.
Mike D

January 9, 2013 at 9:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Where are you receiving your forecasts from, be specific. There are actually 2 possible storms. 1 on the 19th and one on the 24th. The problem with the storm on the 19th is, even though it has more precipitation than the one on the 24th, the cold air may not be in place yet. The models are all over with the storm on the 16th. After that storm passes, it’ll draw the cold air behind it, and thats when the east coast will get cold. I believe the storm will have a primary cutting up the Appalachians, weakening, and a secondary forming offshore. This will be much like the post-christmas storm on the 26th, however, I believe the heaviest snow axis will be father southeast. Another possibility is the 14th and 16 storms will phase, and create a substantial rainfall on the east coast, but it will be strong enough to tap into the arctic dam, and break it down. The cold will flow to the east and therefore create a much higher chance for the heaviest snow on the 18th be coastal, not inland. I believe the rain/snow line will be from 20+ miles inland to 50 miles inland leaving a large area of snow to ice and rain to snow and ice. This is because the height offshore may still be high, and the temperatures high as well. This drams warm air into the storm, and rises to 850-500 millibar heights. In the mixing area, there will still be low level cold, due to the arctic push, but I think your area has a better chance of receiving snow from the 24th storm since you may not have to deal with mixing. I run my own website, mikessnowwatch.com, which has snowfall predictions for the tri-state area. When I make snowfall maps, however, they are for the mid-atalntic and northeast. When I make a map for this storm on the 18th, I will be sure to include your area. Does that help?
Mike D
Rod Houston

January 9, 2013 at 9:58 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

It won’t be nearly as cold as what I was thinking a few days ago but it still should be cold,I hope. Looks like most of the cold might be heading for Europe instead for the U.S. That has me worried. Only if the MJO was going to 8 and not back to 6,we would have been very cold. We need to wait and see.
Mike D

January 9, 2013 at 10:02 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

BTW, so no confusion is made, that comment was to Nathan Sinclair.
Yamahas

January 9, 2013 at 11:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Good ole yamahas is looking pretty good right now with his forecast that the cold and snow aren’t coming. I see Tim is agreeing with me. What’s the big dogs ( Eric, Dante, Jason ) gotta say about this. I didn’t include matthew cuz he hasn’t gotten one storm right including last year.
Derickeugeneree

January 10, 2013 at 1:45 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Eric did you check out Stephen Boyle video today if so what’s your thoughts about the 19th storm that he talked about?
AutoFill Rob

January 10, 2013 at 2:10 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Ugh you guys on here today lol….did you check out the “last” updated GFS run? ALOT colder AND busier huh? Just like Eric said…stop following models …cuz especially with the GFS who’s constantly wrong…look at the whole picture… you guys on here today where depressing… yamahas even though he be dissin Eric is alot more fun! Stop reading models…cuz I think by next week…EVERYONE is going to be surprised… and I saw Stephen’s video D…veeery interesting:-)
Eric

January 10, 2013 at 6:51 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ All bloggers
I have been extremely busy this week due to studies, and will not be able to get to your questions until Friday evening.
Mitchell West

January 11, 2013 at 7:17 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Sucks to say but I don’t see any substained cold air in site. Deff. Nothing to right home about.. I say this winter has been about as average as it could get to this point if not slightly above average as far as temps. Ready for this weekend around columbia sc! Close to 80 degrees! If it ain’t going to snow for us in the south just skip forward to spring and summer already!!!!
AutoFill Rob

January 11, 2013 at 7:58 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Geez! Where’s everyone?! Its quiet as kept in here since forever! Hope everyones OK! Hey big E…do you know about a storm for the 20th? And it seems everyone’s picking up on that cold air for next week! Surprise surprise!
Eric

January 11, 2013 at 8:44 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Well, I’m back, still going to busy through early next week, my next post will probably come out late next week, hopefully by next Saturday. Now, as far as what I’m seeing, I have not changed my ideas that I’ve had since early December for the worst of winter having yet to come, and a potentially brutal pattern to set up late Jan-Feb. This warmth we are seeing is not nearly as strong nor is at as widespread as what we saw in early December. Although some areas of the southeast will get quite warm and approach near record high temperatures, this warmth we are currently seeing is being induced by a few factors, including the MJO and the 25-30 day sunspot cycles. The 25-30 day sunspot cycles are partially to blame for this recent warmth, because the latest NOAA sunspot numbers and solar flux are among the highest observed in the entire solar cycle, and based on what was observed during the fall months, the downward part of the 25-30 day sunspot cycle correlated with cooler than normal conditions over the eastern US and caused the PNA to have a tendency to go into its negative state, so with the cycle very active, it is no wonder why we are seeing this sudden warm-up over the eastern US.
Also, this sudden increase in sunspots and solar flux may have an effect on the sudden strengthening of the MJO over the tropics, as more energy is received to earth’s surface, and considering that the greatest amount of sunlight energy is focused towards the tropics, this could possibly explain the sudden increase in rising motion over western Pacific, which has led to an increase in thunderstorms and a strengthening MJO. The MJO is currently over the western Pacific towards Octants 5 and 6, which favors warmth over much of the US, especially towards the eastern US, with any cool weather occurring towards the western US and sometimes into the Plains. However, this is what normally occurs, and what we are seeing in this instance is a displacement of the polar vortex (due to the stratospheric warming event which was caused by the Kelvin Wave over the Pacific in early-mid December) In fact, the current stratosphere temperatures at 10 and 50 millibars are at all time record highs for this date http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/05mb9065.gif interestingly, this would put this current warming event in comparison to what we saw in 1984-85. Now, there is concern from what I understand about the MJO remaining in the western Pacific as being shown by the GFS and its ensembles, and this would mean that warmth would try to fight against the impending cold coming from the displaced polar vortex. However, I have a few reasons why I don’t think this is to be believed. You have to understand that we are dealing with models here trying to forecast the MJO out to 2 weeks in advance, and lately, the verification of the models on MJO has been horrific, with the GFS and GFES two weeks ago having the MJO stay in the “igloo” or barely into Octant 4 and 5, of course, the MJO is now approaching Octant 6. Considering that the MJO is a tropical oscillation, in which the increased temperatures means a greater difference in energy per degree, and since we are also dealing with the tropical oceans (Oceans have 1000 x the heat capacity of air), this difference in energy is significantly amplified, and thus, this is why it is important to look at the tropics, before PNA, AO, NAO and other associated mid and high latitude oscillations because it is the tropics and the solar cycles which ultimately control the pattern, and these other oscillations are just indicators, not dictators of the pattern.
A tip I like to use when trying to predict MJO is to look at the temperature anomalies for the global tropical oceans, and by doing so, you can see there are large regions of colder and warmer than normal water over the tropics. It is over these areas with the highest anomalies from normal over the tropics that have a tendency to see the upward phase of the MJO go over that particular region of the globe. (link) http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif This is the case because with warmer waters in place, it naturally warms the surrounding air, and since warmer air has a natural tendency to rise and force pressures to fall thanks to the air particles within warmer air moving more freely about, causing less air molecules to packed into the same amount of space. In our current situation, the MJO has moved quite quickly out of the Indian Ocean and towards the eastern Pacific, however, as time progresses the models show the MJO trying to hang around in the western Pacific, and if this occurred, it would be a warm pattern for the US. However, this does not make sense given that the Atlantic Ocean is deep into its warm AMO, and naturally, the MJO would have a tendency to force upward motion over the Atlantic due to the waters being warmer than normal, and with the eastern Pacific being colder than normal, it would seem that the models in this case trying to keep the MJO over the western Pacific, are having problems pushing the MJO towards the Atlantic because there is a a disconnect with the eastern Pacific being cooler than normal. (also this is the opposite of last year when the deep tropical Atlantic was cooler than normal) Now, when the MJO does move out of the western Pacific, we will have to keep a lookout for any potential Kelvin Waves, we saw less than a week ago, the SOI tried to crash negative, however the upward MJO pulse prevented this Kelvin Wave from strengthening because as the increase in thunderstorm activity occurred over the western Pacific, this lowered surface pressures, and with pressures over the eastern Pacific in relation being higher than normal, this induces a more east-west flow across the tropics where air from the region of naturally higher pressures over the eastern Pacific flows towards the region of general low pressure over the western Pacific. This east-west flow is associated with “normal” conditions over the Pacific, in which it follows the natural wind patterns over the tropics are induced by the Coriolis Effect. However, realizing that like the Kelvin Wave (which helped to lead to the current stratospheric warming event, and it’s the stratospheric warming event causing the polar vortex to become dislodged and is leading to the very cold weather being experienced over Asia) the MJO is one of the few things that can travel west-east in the tropics, it is very important to watch the MJO to help lookout for Kelvin Waves. My suspicion is that when the MJO starts to come towards the Atlantic, that with it backing off in the western Pacific forcing pressures to rise, and pressures lower towards the eastern Pacific, this could lead to the formation of a new Kelvin Wave where the air over the Pacific under this scenario naturally rushes west to east, just like the natural propagation of the Kelvin Wave. If this does happen, then I would not be too surprised to see a reinforcing shot of warmth into the already warm stratosphere, and this could mean even more deterioration of the polar vortex, helping to drive the NAO and AO considerably negative. Also, with the 30 day sunspot cycles near their peak now, they should begin to drop off, and knowing the inverse correlation with sunspot cycles and PNA, the lower portion of the 30 day cycle that will come towards late January will lead to the PNA becoming positive, and with a strongly negative AO and NAO from the stratosphere, this would set-up a pattern in which it could get very cold and snowy over the US towards late January and February. Interestingly, the models agree with me in this instance, and they show the polar vortex currently located over extreme northern Canada becoming very displaced and heading towards southern Canada and the northern US in the longer ranges, and the reason the vortex will be coming south will be because of the increasing warming in the stratosphere over arctic, forcing the vortex to move southward to avoid complete collapse (like what happened in 1984-85), and with a strong gyre of low pressure forming over eastern Canada and the Canadian Maritimes, this will create a “fujiwhara” with the other strong region of low pressure (this strong region of low pressure being the polar vortex containing some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere), and since the polar vortex is located to the northwest of this developing gyre of low pressure, this means that since fujiwhara of low pressure regions in the northern hemisphere goes in a counter-clockwise motion, this area of low pressure (polar vortex )would be forced to move southward in response. Interestingly, the timing on when this would occur would ironically be almost at the exact same time when the severe arctic outbreak in 1985 plunged into the US. (around and just after January 20th) This winter is not over by a long shot, and I will continue on my ideas for cold and the worst of winter to come towards late Jan-Feb.
Central New Jersey Weather

January 11, 2013 at 9:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Check out our website. It’s rapidweather.wordpress.com

Karl, Forecaster, and I (biggamefisherman1000) forecast on that website.
Eric

January 11, 2013 at 10:26 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
I have heard about the storm on the 20th, but there’s a lot of uncertainty as to exactly when a storm will hit, although we could easily see a wave of low pressure develop along a very strong cold front associated with a positively tilted trough that extends all the way into the polar vortex which will be nearing the Hudson Bay within a week’s time. This cold front will have arctic air infused into it since it will be attached to the polar vortex and I will feel more confident in a precise storm system when we start to see the feedback from this cold air into the models. Regardless, with the polar vortex moving down into Quebec and Ontario (as I explained in my post above) this will infuse vast amounts of cold air into the pattern, and with residual mild air (in comparison) to the south, this will create a strong temperature and pressure gradient (helps to fuel mid-latitude cyclones), so we are bound to get some significant storm system(s) out of this pattern, its just a matter of precisely when and where they strike.
AutoFill Rob

January 11, 2013 at 10:36 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Eric …finally! Some good news! I figure with the way this cold artic air coming in SOMETHING should develop..I’m hoping this is the case…thanks E …its been so slow around here without your feedback!
Eric Webb

January 11, 2013 at 10:46 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
Yeah, I have been busy of late, and I will still somewhat busy early this week, but I should start blogging more frequently by late this upcoming week. This is good news, and if this does indeed happen where the polar vortex dips into the northern US, would verify my ideas all the way back on December 9th for this to be comparable to 1984-85, and through all of the model discrepancies, ridicule, etc.., I have not budged from my initial ideas from early December for the worst of winter to come later, now that’s consistency, lol. If this verifies, wow, would be simply amazing. In saying this, still have a little ways to go before these ideas are tested and things can change, but I like how things are playing out right now.
AutoFill Rob

January 12, 2013 at 2:15 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Eric…not for nothing I give you mad props! Cuz while alot of dudes on here( and we know who they are gave you hell you’ve been right just about EVERY time! And wit astounding frequency so for that I congratulate you and hopefully you continue success in this field…for a guy so young you truly have done excellent work…and I hope that storm materializes wit the cold…that would be n added bonus!
Mike D

January 12, 2013 at 11:28 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Eric
I read your comments whether they are to me or not. I have a few questions for you. I understand you are busy with studies so whenever you can please answer (don’t worry, they’re not that urgent)

What do you think of the new Korean run for 30 days out starting January 21st? It was on Joe Bastardi’s video today, and it had a major heat wave in Europe and a positive AO.

Do you think me area could receive any snow on Tuesday? Most weather prediction websites and models have the precipitation staying south or only cold rain here.

I know you and Autofill Rob have been discussing the storm on the 20th, but I have seen otherwise. I know Stephen Boyle thinks the storm on the 20th is going to be so strong its dangerous. I just don’t see the storm phasing because of the other storm just in front of it on the 16th. On the models, it almost looks like there is a piece of energy in the southeast, a piece of that breaks off for the 16th storm, and then the other piece strengthens but goes out to sea. I think the problem is that there is not enough space between the two storms for the arctic blast to come in. Instead, the arctic air pushes the 20th storm out to sea. What are your thoughts on this?

Lastly, what are Kelvin Waves, where do they form, and what do they do?