@ Derickeugeneree
Well, I did say northeast, and you know how I am about looking directly at model runs for trying to make a forecast, (I really loathe it), but this particular run shows quite a snowstorm along & north of I-80 in the northeast (the vast majority of the snow well to your north and east) with extremely cold air on the backside of the low pressure, getting below zero in many areas. However, you can not look at one specific model run for one specific model to justify any winter storm forecast for the moment, I just realize at this time that something significant will be coming for the eastern US in general around Jan 20-25 along with the polar vortex driving extremely cold air southeastward into the eastern US. (as I’ve been saying is supported by the conditions at hand, since early December how this looked like 1984-85)
Ok thanks Eric and yea i know you with the models lol! So wait what do you mean ” i just realize something significant will be coming for the east around the 20-25″? Do you mean like a major storm along with cold air? Maybe its that storm everyone is talking about just after the 20th! Well thats something to look forward to lol! Keep us updated if you see anything around that time that keeps popping up!
@ Armando
Well, it is hard NOT to get some kind of significant mid-latitude cyclone (which, unlike tropical cyclones which feed off of pure latent heat release, feed off of differences in air masses) with the arctic air pressing into the comparatively milder air over the US, something is bound to happen, still some uncertainty as to exactly what, when, and where such a system will occur.
Hey Eric thats exciting then because what you say is true so il be looking forward to that! So i havent really talked about this, but it just started to bug me about Joe’s winter update and it seemed like he really isnt impressed anymore or like he just seemed to be a little down with this post i dont know! So like what do you think about this and of his video today? Eric i have so much faith in you and i believe everything you say and you havent let me or anyone down not one time thank you! I just hope and pray that once winter comes it will be just like or somewhat close to 2010 with storms and sustained cold! You feel the same way?
@ Armando
I think he seems fine, but I think he may be a bit conservative on his temperature forecast for the rest of the winter in only showing -4 in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but regardless, I have not altered my ideas at all with this cold coming in late January and through February, and of course there is a chance that once the MJO exits the western Pacific that another Kelvin Wave tries to form as the pressures suddenly rise in the wake of the wave, and induce a more west-east flow over the equatorial Pacific, which favors Kelvin Waves. Plus, as shown in my post on December 9th, along with the above normal snowpack over the northern hemisphere, the Kelvin Wave helps to trigger these stratospheric warming events, and I could only imagine what would happen to the polar vortex if another stratospheric warming event occurred (even if it was relatively minor).
Looks like an LA Nina is trying to form. If thats the case then winter is over with. There was supposed to be very cold air in Central NC on the 22nd and snow on 18 but the GFS doesn’t have ether. Its possible that the GFS runs later runs could be much warmer than this.The 12Z of all models shows that NAO is now positive,AO is not deeply negative and that could be positive. I’m see a trend with all the models and despite of a very strong stratosphere warming event, we still could be warm due to a possible LA Nina.
The Models are under doing the cold air. I wouldn’t be supposed if the models go back to a very cold run. They are not picking the stratosphere warming. While I don’t think it will be record cold in most places, I still think that it could be near-record cold and the record cold may come in February. Also what are the Kelvin waves?
@ Tim Johnson
It is not going back to la nina before winter ends, the latest MEI is near 0, and even if it did somehow go back to la nina, you have to realize that it takes a considerable amount of time, on the order of several weeks to months before any significant effects are felt from any la nina. 1984-85 was a weak la nina, yet featured one of the strongest arctic outbreaks of the 20th century, so it is not just about ENSO, other factors coming into play as well, because I have told you and everyone on this blog not to just look at one condition to suddenly give up on a forecast (look at ALL the conditions at hand) plus, the MJO (a region of rising motion in the tropics( is coming towards the Atlantic in the longer ranges, (because the warm AMO in place, the warmer ocean waters promote rising air over that region of the tropics, and I just think the models forecasting the MJO are having a “disconnect” between the warm waters over the western Pacific and the warm waters over the Atlantic, thus some of them are stuggling to bring the MJO across the Pacific and to the Atlantic) and the cold is coming for the eastern US in late Jan-Feb. Simply saying the AO/NAO going positive means warmth really does not acknowledge the other conditions at hand. If you even bothered to look, early December was very warm over the US, yet the AO and NAO were both negative, just proves that other more larger scale factors are driving this pattern, and the PNA, AO, and NAO are NOT dictators of the pattern, they are indicators, thus try to avoid putting a whole lot of focus on them, instead look at everything in front of you.
@ Rod Houston
You really can not get caught up too much in the models and the teleconnections, AO, NAO, and PNA, because they can change quite quickly and wildly, look at the factors driving these indicators like the MJO and the 25-30 day sunspot cycles, both of which will be getting into more favorable positions in the longer ranges, with the sunspot cycles declining and the MJo moving towards the Atlantic as we get to late January. Check out my response to Mike D on Matthew’s blog (the first one) and if need be, go back and read/skim through my posts from Dec 9th & 23rd, because believe it or not, a lot of what I said at that time still has plenty of relevance to what we are seeing right now.
@ Eric
The NAO and AO very recently and unexpectedly tanked to about -3. Though they will modify before returning negative, do you think it has any impact on this minor storm Tuesday night? What are your thoughts on that storm. I know Central Jer….. Has 6+ for my area, but I’m not buying it. Is c-1 a safe guess?
@ Central New Jersey Weather
Not to be offensive, just as a tip, do more research before putting up a map or prediction on your website, because what happens is the models slowly trend and come to peace on a central idea, and your redoing your forecast 1-2 times a day. Inconsistencies in weather models cause you to constantly change your forecast, and your therefore not a reliable source. Stick to your forecast until there is major questioning as to what is going on. from 6-12+ in my area to c-3. Major swing, and I believe that is still to high. I live in extreme northern central Jersey and am a weather forecaster myself, I manage my own website @ mikessnowwatch.com. I expect c-2 inches for northern NJ.
Loading tweets...
63 comments
Skip to comment form ↓
Eric
January 13, 2013 at 4:59 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, I did say northeast, and you know how I am about looking directly at model runs for trying to make a forecast, (I really loathe it), but this particular run shows quite a snowstorm along & north of I-80 in the northeast (the vast majority of the snow well to your north and east) with extremely cold air on the backside of the low pressure, getting below zero in many areas. However, you can not look at one specific model run for one specific model to justify any winter storm forecast for the moment, I just realize at this time that something significant will be coming for the eastern US in general around Jan 20-25 along with the polar vortex driving extremely cold air southeastward into the eastern US. (as I’ve been saying is supported by the conditions at hand, since early December how this looked like 1984-85)
Armando
January 13, 2013 at 5:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
January 13, 2013 at 5:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, it is hard NOT to get some kind of significant mid-latitude cyclone (which, unlike tropical cyclones which feed off of pure latent heat release, feed off of differences in air masses) with the arctic air pressing into the comparatively milder air over the US, something is bound to happen, still some uncertainty as to exactly what, when, and where such a system will occur.
Armando
January 13, 2013 at 6:43 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
January 13, 2013 at 6:52 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I think he seems fine, but I think he may be a bit conservative on his temperature forecast for the rest of the winter in only showing -4 in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but regardless, I have not altered my ideas at all with this cold coming in late January and through February, and of course there is a chance that once the MJO exits the western Pacific that another Kelvin Wave tries to form as the pressures suddenly rise in the wake of the wave, and induce a more west-east flow over the equatorial Pacific, which favors Kelvin Waves. Plus, as shown in my post on December 9th, along with the above normal snowpack over the northern hemisphere, the Kelvin Wave helps to trigger these stratospheric warming events, and I could only imagine what would happen to the polar vortex if another stratospheric warming event occurred (even if it was relatively minor).
Tim Johnson
January 13, 2013 at 6:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Rod Houston
January 13, 2013 at 7:13 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
January 13, 2013 at 7:25 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
It is not going back to la nina before winter ends, the latest MEI is near 0, and even if it did somehow go back to la nina, you have to realize that it takes a considerable amount of time, on the order of several weeks to months before any significant effects are felt from any la nina. 1984-85 was a weak la nina, yet featured one of the strongest arctic outbreaks of the 20th century, so it is not just about ENSO, other factors coming into play as well, because I have told you and everyone on this blog not to just look at one condition to suddenly give up on a forecast (look at ALL the conditions at hand) plus, the MJO (a region of rising motion in the tropics( is coming towards the Atlantic in the longer ranges, (because the warm AMO in place, the warmer ocean waters promote rising air over that region of the tropics, and I just think the models forecasting the MJO are having a “disconnect” between the warm waters over the western Pacific and the warm waters over the Atlantic, thus some of them are stuggling to bring the MJO across the Pacific and to the Atlantic) and the cold is coming for the eastern US in late Jan-Feb. Simply saying the AO/NAO going positive means warmth really does not acknowledge the other conditions at hand. If you even bothered to look, early December was very warm over the US, yet the AO and NAO were both negative, just proves that other more larger scale factors are driving this pattern, and the PNA, AO, and NAO are NOT dictators of the pattern, they are indicators, thus try to avoid putting a whole lot of focus on them, instead look at everything in front of you.
Eric
January 13, 2013 at 7:28 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
You really can not get caught up too much in the models and the teleconnections, AO, NAO, and PNA, because they can change quite quickly and wildly, look at the factors driving these indicators like the MJO and the 25-30 day sunspot cycles, both of which will be getting into more favorable positions in the longer ranges, with the sunspot cycles declining and the MJo moving towards the Atlantic as we get to late January. Check out my response to Mike D on Matthew’s blog (the first one) and if need be, go back and read/skim through my posts from Dec 9th & 23rd, because believe it or not, a lot of what I said at that time still has plenty of relevance to what we are seeing right now.
Mike D
January 13, 2013 at 10:20 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
The NAO and AO very recently and unexpectedly tanked to about -3. Though they will modify before returning negative, do you think it has any impact on this minor storm Tuesday night? What are your thoughts on that storm. I know Central Jer….. Has 6+ for my area, but I’m not buying it. Is c-1 a safe guess?
Central New Jersey Weather
January 14, 2013 at 3:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Link: http://centralnjweather.blogspot.com/2013/01/tomorrow-thursday-alberta-clipper.html
chris v
January 14, 2013 at 4:03 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mike D
January 14, 2013 at 4:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Not to be offensive, just as a tip, do more research before putting up a map or prediction on your website, because what happens is the models slowly trend and come to peace on a central idea, and your redoing your forecast 1-2 times a day. Inconsistencies in weather models cause you to constantly change your forecast, and your therefore not a reliable source. Stick to your forecast until there is major questioning as to what is going on. from 6-12+ in my area to c-3. Major swing, and I believe that is still to high. I live in extreme northern central Jersey and am a weather forecaster myself, I manage my own website @ mikessnowwatch.com. I expect c-2 inches for northern NJ.
« Previous 1 2