Jan 14 2013

Arctic Blast Next Week. Could This Pattern Stay? More Details About That Later!!!

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About the author

Matthew

Hey my name is Matthew Hatley. I am 16 and I always loved the weather ever since I was a baby. I used to stand at the door and watch the lightning during thunderstorms. I was a little chap when I used to do that. I am a meterologist for mainly the southeast but occasinally I do forecasts for the whole country. I do my best to give information about the weather to people who ask me what the weather will be like for the day, or the week. My favorite time of the year is winter. I do the best weather forecasting during the winter. I enjoy all of the people who view my forecast, but not only mine but all the other forecasters at Weatheradvance.com

46 comments

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jr

January 15, 2013 at 6:56 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

when will N.C. get snow. or is is itin the longe range models?
Mitchell West

January 15, 2013 at 8:45 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Who cares about cold air when you don’t have the moisture with it.
Derickeugeneree

January 15, 2013 at 10:33 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I’m sure there will be snow with the cold air
Mitchell West

January 15, 2013 at 11:27 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

What’s really becoming frustrating is that places like Dallas, northern lousisiana, Memphis, northwest Alabama and up in west tennesee and into Nashville keep getting hit. Even though it isn’t a lot its still frustrating. Once again the models are coming together for maybe some snow around charlotte thurs night into Friday morning but guess where the bulk of it is suppose to fall? All those places I just mentioned except maybe Dallas… Frustrating seems like there just hogging it all as usual. I mean we have a huge arctic front heading right towards us but it just decides to say hey screw the Carolinas no cold and snowy weather for them. Seriously frustrating
Maranda

January 15, 2013 at 11:42 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

My family in Dallas Tx has gotten snow twice. It snowed there on Christmas and again today. I’m here in Jacksonville NC and no snow : (
When will eastern Carolina get snow? It driving me crazy lol
AutoFill Rob

January 15, 2013 at 12:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Wake me up when the real snow and cold hit,a storm that dumps more than the rain and sleet their predicting for NYC tonight and tomorrow morning..ughh…where have you 95-96 winters:-(
Central New Jersey Weather

January 15, 2013 at 4:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Okay. I updated the storm on my blog.

Link: http://centralnjweather.blogspot.com/2013/01/tomorrow-and-thursdays-storm.html
Mitchell West

January 15, 2013 at 4:43 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Dallas always gets it for some reason. Also Memphis and Nashville seem to hog it all also.
Brad Fields

January 15, 2013 at 6:59 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

21-23 slight chance of a coastal mid-Atlantic/northeast. Looks like a slight -NAO&+PNA. Who knows its to early to tell.
Mike D

January 15, 2013 at 7:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Brad Fields
Go to meteocentre.com and look at the GEM-GLB (Canadian) model. It shows a major storm bombing out along the coast. A little more than a slight chance!
AutoFill Rob

January 15, 2013 at 9:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

The way those models have been flipping around I’m not believing anything til at least 3 days out.especially this winter where nothings set in stone..
Central New Jersey Weather

January 15, 2013 at 9:18 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Okay, I updated it. Here’s the link.

Link: http://centralnjweather.blogspot.com/2013/01/looking-moderate-in-some-areas-in.html
Jacob Thome

January 15, 2013 at 9:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey Eric I was wondering if we could talk weather sometime soon, kind of like over email or something because i want to be a better forecaster, and what I have learn over (12) my years of life that it is right to share everything exept secrets. I know that people are sopposed to work for knowledge i would hope that this is one of those freebees. I will Tell you my email if you say yes and I hope this is no bother to you. I am just amazed that you really started just learning these things over summer because i have known the “weather basics like El Niño, La Niña and the nao, ao, and the pdo for 2 years. Well I might have accidentally and trying to say as nice as possible that some people were going too cold or snowy for winter (that you might have thoght were hate comments, sorry), yet again i hope that this is not a bother, so if you do want to talk weather, what i mean by that is we teach each other what we know so that we all could become good weathermen. If you want to do this please tell me and I will tell my email. Other commenters please do not spam my email, I just hate it and I just might return spam to you.
Yamahas

January 15, 2013 at 11:06 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Holy smokes did everyone see the newest models??? It says blizzard
AutoFill Rob

January 16, 2013 at 12:16 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ yamahas… YOUR getting excited about models?! Lol…I’ll believe 2-3days from the event..til then I’m not getting to excited.. by tomorrow’s 12 noon run it’ll probably miss the I-95 altogether..
Derickeugeneree

January 16, 2013 at 8:22 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

The gfs is showing the next storm coming but it’s keeping it south of PA is that right or wrong?
Mike D

January 16, 2013 at 8:59 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
Check the Canadian!!! It has been consistent with and I-95 snow event next week. It shows a repeat of the blizzard of 2010 the day after Christmas!
Yamahas

January 16, 2013 at 9:28 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

So 1 storm missed me yesterday and another one misses me tomorrow guess I was right again. I said 2 days ago 2 storms 2 misses
Derickeugeneree

January 16, 2013 at 9:58 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

My area got freezing rain and sleet last night and its raining now
Yamahas

January 16, 2013 at 10:13 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Mike D. I’m not gonna believe something a week away let alone something 2 days away as we have all seen time and time again it doesn’t happen.
derickeugeneree

January 16, 2013 at 2:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

whats that i see on the gfs at hour 228? i see a big storm for the east coast the mid-atlantic!! i’m not getting too exited yet but just something the gfs is showing since its at hour 228.
derickeugeneree

January 16, 2013 at 2:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

not getting too exited yet cause its at hour 228 but just something the gfs is showing now.
AutoFill Rob

January 16, 2013 at 2:33 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

That’s that big storm new England weather has been talking about since last week…hmmmm…interesting
Mitchell West

January 16, 2013 at 2:56 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Very suprised someone hasn’t posted something talking about the southern snowstorm developing now that’s suppose to affect mid Mississippi up thru Atlanta, charlotte and also Raleigh. There calling for a dusting to a couple inches thru there.
AutoFill Rob

January 16, 2013 at 3:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ M.West…tell me about it…I figured a few of the guys on here would’ve at least posted something..
Rick

January 16, 2013 at 3:38 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Whomp whomp… so much for 1984…
Aaron

January 16, 2013 at 4:08 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Matthew what do u think about the snowstorm that will affect VA and north NC thursday night?
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 4:50 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Rick
Lol, where’s your proof of this not being like 1984-85 in what is coming, you did the same thing with my forecast over the summer trying to tell me it was going to be too warm for it to snow over the upper midwest before summer was over, then you went with the GFS on Sandy, and we saw how that turned out, and then you said this winter was “a check that could not be cashed” yet, the northern hemisphere broke a record for most snowfall ever in the month of December, and although the US was warm in the early and mid parts of the month, there is no denying the fact that we had the greatest Christmas snowcover since 1996 or the greatest New Year’s snow cover since 1989, and to boot we are witnessing a major stratospheric warming event (was the warmest on record for a few days) like what was observed in 1984-85. Like that winter, this winter started out slow, but by mid-late January through February that winter was very cold over much of the US. So, trying to already claim this is not like 1984-85 is not smart all, especially considering all the evidence in support of it and the fact that these ideas have yet to be tested due to the fact that we aren’t even in late Jan-Feb yet, lol.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 4:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
I actually did post something on this several days ago in response to one of your concerns, although the ideas and forecasts for the storm itself have changed dramatically since then with the storm actually coming out of the southwestern US.

“I know, but for right now, I am not going to pay to much attention to precise winter storms due to the unusually high variability in this pattern, and with so much arctic air coming down near and after the 20th, the models and many of the forecasters seem to be having a tough time handling this changing pattern. Although this might surprise you, I think the southern US (especially towards areas where it snowed in early January over SW Texas, northern Mexico and extending a little farther to the north and east) may get a winter storm, due to the pattern once again looking favorable for some winter weather over areas that saw snow in early January (that forecast for a winter storm over the southern US in early Jan did verify by the way, amazingly, heavy snow occurred well into Mexico). This favorable pattern I’m alluding to is when you get trough and/or a gyre of low pressure in the vicinity of eastern Canada, with a trough that extends eastward into the Atlantic, then another disturbance that lays back to the south and west, with ridging over the western US and extending into NW Canada, and a trough of low pressure that is positioned near and just west of the Gulf of Alaska. In this particular case, this disturbance over the southwestern US is currently enveloped in very cold air coming out of northern and northwestern Canada, and as it comes east, it will be able to draw moisture not only from the eastern Pacific, but also from the Gulf of Mexico, and it may still have enough cold air to go along with that moisture to make potentially make things interesting, especially towards the southern Plains.”
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 4:57 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I am also surprised myself that some of the forecasters here haven’t said anything about it, of course I’ve been very busy this week up until now, and I honestly would have posted something, but you know I like to make my posts very large and elaborate showing everything that is going on, why certain things are occurring, not just one or two particular storm systems.
Central New Jersey Weather

January 16, 2013 at 5:03 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Okay. Posted out the final outlook for this storm. May not be ice storm. Maybe just freezing rain for those areas. It’s a 40-70 Benchmark Storm so more for the New England Coast and NJ Coast.

Link: http://centralnjweather.blogspot.com/2013/01/final-outlook-for-tonights-thru-tomorrow.html
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 5:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I am laughing at Yamahas right now because he claimed winter was over (about a week and a half ago) yet as many of you already know, there is a decent winter storm coming for the southern US, and another winterand you know when it snows over the south winter is not over by a longshot, in fact it appears to be only really getting started with the worst of winter to come later this month and into February.
Derickeugeneree

January 16, 2013 at 5:54 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I am really laughing at yamahas cause it sleeted and freezing rained in my area last night and the NWS in state college is saying that tomorrow there is a 20 percent chance of snow within 12 hours I thought winter was over and spring was going to start LOL
AutoFill Rob

January 16, 2013 at 6:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey E! Welcome back! Missed you on here,and yes I do remember that post…though that storm is growing in stature…but what are ur feelings about next weeks storm..is it possible it could grow into a blizzard?
Rick

January 16, 2013 at 7:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

First of all, in the forecast you made back in september you said snow as far south as chicago, I said no it would be to warm and that it would be more to have a few flurries fall in upper minnisota. My reasoning? The lakes were much to warm and would keep ground temperatures well above freezing. The outcome? Exactly that. Yes I was wrong on sandy, I thought that it would follow the storm preceding it tracking closer to bermuda and going out to sea. However, I did not stick with that forecast for more then a few days. Also you seem to have misquoted me, I said that comparing this winter to that of winters 09-11, which were winters with well above average snow on the EAST COAST, was “a check that could not be cashed” because those winters are called “ANOMALOUS” and are not going to occur every winter. Now, I don’t know how many times have had to say it, a strat warming doesn’t mean the cold is going to move to our side of the hemisphere, or even cause any cold at all. An Example? The great pattern change of last januarary that never happened. This cold front that will be moving in soon that you initially compared to that of 84-85 seems to have been way over estimated, what I believe you made a call for below 0 temperatures for areas like pennsylvania seems now to be bringing temperatures hardly below average, with another warm up soon to follow. What isn’t smart is trying to compare ANOMALOUS winters to a winter that currently has not a single favorable teleconnection with a neutral AO, neutral NAO, neutral PNA, and the MJO stuck in phase 6 and 7 (unfavorable). I see absolutely no reason, besides to make a total out on a limb forecast in the hopes of being right, to think that we are going to see any record cold. Here’s another point; you continue to push your “worst of winter” forecast back now I see that it’s late januarary to febuarary. Why is that? How many times have you busted this winter? Lol.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 8:13 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Rick,
My specific forecast was for snow north of the I-94 corridor, I was just shocked when I saw guidance showing snow south into Chicago, that was NOT my forecast, so you were clearly wrong there, it snowed into Duluth, MN, I even made a post about it. At least you admit you were dead wrong on Sandy, told you not to watch the GFS due to it trying to force the energy to quickly out to the east into a bowling ball low, didn’t make any sense given the strong blocking present over Atlantic Canada.

You are clearly delusional and the NAO and AO are favorable with stratospheric warming with the warmest waters focused over the northern Atlantic in a tripole set-up, and the NAO and AO have been predominantly neutral to negative thus far, so you are also wrong there. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif (NAO) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif (AO)
Comparing this year’s stratospheric warming event to last year is liking comparing apples to oranges, last year featured a predominant Alaskan Vortex which helped to withold the cold air over N.America, this year that feature is nowhere nearly as strong, plus the current stratspheric warming event broke a record for a few days for being the warmest for those particular days in the satellite era, even beating out 1984-85. Without a considerable mechanism like an Alaskan Vortex to hold the arctic air to the northhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/05mb9065.gif
Now, I did not take your words out of context, you said “it was a check that could not be cashed”. Yet, late December featured cold and snowy conditions and the Christmas US snow cover was greatest since 1996 and greatest New Year’s snow cover since 1989. (beating out 2009-10 and 2010-11, so it is hard to make the argument this is not comparable to those winters when the snowpack in late December easily beat out both of those winters.) Perhaps you really need to reconsider this not being like 2009-10, compare the temperatures maps from December 27th-Jan 3rd for this year and 2009-10, very similar http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_71_58_109_165_3_16_25_45.gif (2009-10)
http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_71_58_109_165_3_16_25_15(1).gif (this year)

Perhaps you do not recall what happened in the 2009-10 winter, like this year, there was a significant warm period mid-late January and snow cover over the US by the 19th of January dropped below 40% coverage, this year for the latest coverage at 48.8% coverage, actually significantly ahead of 2009-10. http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_71_58_109_165_3_16_26_39.gif
,http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201001/nsm_depth_2010011805_National.jpg
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201301/nsm_depth_2013011605_National.jpg
How has my winter forecast busted, lol? Let’s just bring a reality into this, I made white Christmas predictions on December 9th for snow south of the I-40 corridor, east of the Rockies, like what happened in 2009-10 and 2010-11, and there was snow on Christmas all the way down to Dallas,TX. Also, I said this was NOT going to be like last year, despite many people criticizing me (including you), and of course we know how that turned out. Then, made predictions for snowfall for the southern US in early January, based off the conditions at hand and comparisons to other similar winter storms over the south, and the only reason why the snow fell in northern Mexico and southwest Texas as opposed to coming east was because the storm could not transfer energy quickly enough to the Gulf of Mexico, unlike this storm that is coming tomorrow. I also correctly predicted the current stratospheric warming event well ahead of other professional meteorologists on December 9th based off the Kelvin Wave, east QBO, the warmer than normal waters over the north Atlantic correlating with increased blocking, and the fact that the polar vortex was not vertically aligned at different levels of the atmosphere, and when this occurs, it makes the vortex susceptible to warming and even collapse. Now you claim that this particular cold front is not going to be like 1984-85, yet, did I ever make any forecast for this particular cold front coming through would be like 1984-85, I said based off of all of the conditions at hand including the NAO, AO, PNA (which would go towards positive thanks to a collapse of the MJO in octants 6 and 7, this would help to force the troughing near and east of Hawaii by backing off of the western Pacific, forcing pressures to suddenly rise there, forces a trough to the east, also an inverse correlation has been shown between the PNA and the 30 day sunspot cycles, and since they’re near the peak now going down from here, means that along with the troughing east of Hawaii, PNA goes positive.

Also you are also wrong again when you say “Here’s another point; you continue to push your “worst of winter” forecast back now I see that it’s late januarary to febuarary.” I have NOT changed my ideas since December 23rd for the worst of winter to come later, so how have I been “pushing back” my forecast, I have not budged for over 3 weeks? Here’s what I specifically said in my post on December 23rd, “The northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly, also posted in a few of my other previous posts really exemplifying how the winter (meteorological winter from Dec-Feb) has played out thus far with a warm start to December, but now the pattern has progressively gotten colder with time, similar to how the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly progressively increased with time. If this is any trend of what is to come later in winter, along with an oncoming stratospheric warming event, the worst of winter is lurking for later in the winter.” Looks like you need to get your facts straight.
armando

January 16, 2013 at 8:32 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

LOL eric i’m not sure if you saw it, but I posted something under mathew’s comment. What i pretty much said was that my physics teacher(by the way i’m a junior and same age as you) said that this winter we could get one HUGE blizzard so I brought up that a stratospheric warming was taking place and the funny part was that no one in my class had a clue what I was saying, but anyway he told me specifically this “I do know what it is, but I’ve taken a look at the nasa satellite and saw that their is nothing happening in the stratosphere and it’s been average for the past 10 years”. ?? All i said was what are you talking about?! Could you explain what he means by that I’m so confused like does he not know whats happening as of right now? Well crazy right? So anyway back to weather, so it’s amazing how we were in the 60 degree mark Sunday and now their is about an half a inch on the ground lol. You and JB were right right after mid month things would change and look at it now! So this storm tomorrow whats it going to do? Will it shift more northward or just have a sharp cut off and miss north NJ? What happens if it phases with the feature from the north Jet? pretty interesting stuff, and also whats your opinion on the storm next week? Thanks Eric
Tim Johnson

January 16, 2013 at 9:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

We will finally get some snow tomorrow in central NC. How much snow could Raleigh with the storm system? The SE ridge is finally getting moved out. Could that mean we will see very cold weather for February or will worst of the cold stay to the West?
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 10:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
I’ve warned you time and time again not to post unless you have adequate evidence to show how my forecast is a “bust”, and it shows the fact that you go on personal and Ad hominem attacks, that your credibility (especially after claiming winter was over) is completely gone, just like your newest comment.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 10:37 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Derickeugeneree
Yes, I as well am laughing pretty hard right now at Yamahas, as he continues to dig a bigger hole for himself every time he posts.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 10:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
Next week we will see arctic air slide down into the eastern US on the heels of a trough of low pressure that is currently near the Gulf of Alaska, and this trough will slide eastward into Canada and then move southeastward around the gyre of low pressure over northern Quebec and Ontario associated with the polar vortex, and with very cold air lurking near and just south of the Hudson Bay, this trough will help to drag it down and the troughs that follow will help to reinforce the cold air in place. What this cold air does over the warm Atlantic waters is when you have such a strong difference in temperatures from the ocean surface to the lower of atmosphere above, this creates lots of instability and thunderstorms and clouds form as result. However, with the cold air there is also sinking air and with high pressure over the region, it puts a “cap” on thunderstorm activity, and it is not until the next trough that comes through that this “cap” in the atmosphere is lifted. However, once this “cap” is lifted explosive thunderstorm development can occur, and this is one of the reasons for “bombogenesis” of mid-latitude cyclones where pressures fall rapidly and nor’easters can quickly develop. In saying this, there is always uncertainty as to whether or not a storm will actually form, and if the arctic air really presses, it could actually be so strong that it forces the storm track (temporarily) to the south and east, plus I still do not think we’ll have a good handle on this potential storm until we get the feedback from the snow that falls over the Carolinas and mid-atlantic Thursday night.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 11:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
Yeah, I did see that and it is very interesting that you had this problem with your physics teacher, although I am no expert on precisely how warm or cold the stratosphere has been compared to normal the last decade or so, this does not take away from the fact that this stratospheric warming event has been one of the greatest on record, (provided link above to site showing stratosphere temps in response to Rick) and we went from nearly the coldest on record to the warmest on record within a week should tell you something. Also, when I look at stratospheric warming, I like to reference this video a lot from Levi Cowan http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=F1xoO2kZC_c
The storm coming tomorrow is not going to phase to the north, should be a winter storm confined to the Carolinas and Virginia, one of the main reasons for this has a lot to do with the recent snowfall that fell over the northeast. Already, when you have a trough exiting a particular region, higher pressures usually follow in its wake, and this naturally creates regions of high pressure behind the trough, and not only that, but when you have snowfall, that snow reflects solar radiation, cools the surrounding air, and since colder air leads to higher pressures (air molecules in cold air do not move as fast, thus they can move within closer proximity to each other), and like I’ve talked about before, these storm systems prefer to move along the “boundary”at which separates higher/lower pressures & warm/cold air. This increased snowpack raising surface pressures, forces this “boundary” farther south and east than it would be without the presence of snow, and not only that, the trough associated with this push of colder air that swept through the US has pressures rising in the wake of it, and this is only amplified by the cold air behind this large scale weather system as well. I posted my opinion on next week’s storm in my comment above to AutoFill Rob (considering you guys live within close proximity to each other no reason to make two different forecasts or ideas for the same particular region.) I should continue to form a more defined opinion on what exactly may happen next week, but definitely going to be interesting with this large push of arctic air into the eastern US starting next week.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 11:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
The only little kid here is you, the same one whining and complaining about it not snowing in their backyard, the same one not recognizing reality, the same one who will not admit that they are already wrong about winter being over, and please try to refrain from using profanity. Why don’t you man up and show some evidence to back up your claims of my forecast busting, because it has not changed since December 23rd. I have warned you already to show some evidence to back up your outrageous claims and you failed miserably to do so, and until you can do that, your comments are pointless.
Eric

January 16, 2013 at 11:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Like I said, your credibility is as non-existent as every single one of your pointless, childish, and purely baseless comments, it’s no wonder why your comments are getting deleted.
AutoFill Rob

January 17, 2013 at 1:05 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ E…thanks for the feedback Eric..well I ain’t expecting much out of it..when just about every other spot is getting snow( well except Chicago)then you know this winters been kinda dull around the ole’ I-95…I mean getting on late January and NYC has had about 7.5 inches of snow so far. I was getting excited about this winter…but besides it being colder than last year there hasn’t been to much of anything going on…oh,forgot…sleet n rain last night left a coating….forgot about it already..
Eric

January 17, 2013 at 9:09 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
Yeah, I saw that, hopefully I can get a new post out by this weekend outlining my thoughts on what’s going on in this pattern, among other things