Jan 19 2013

Update on 26-27th storm models are showing same picture

by Jason Shaulov

The models are showing the same picture with snow falling in all major cities of the east coast . Stay tuned

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Jason Shaulov

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Armando

January 20, 2013 at 2:38 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Ok yea good post mike D! Also Eric i posted something so if you have a chance could you look at it thanks! So guys my question is that weatherbell’s NAO graphs show it deeply negative, but why do MOST people go by the noaa graphs? What makes them two so different because the noaa has the NAO neutral while weatherbell’s models have it tanked? Im confused! Also anyone see joe’s video he says we could get more than 5 inches according to his graphs but says it will be a fast runner
Eric

January 20, 2013 at 2:42 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
Yeah, Yamahas really is the definition of ignorant, oh well, but this should be at least a decent storm for I-95, with a considerable period of snow at least at the beginning of the storm. I’m not sure if this will “be the one” but, it could definitely be a very nice winter storm, but the same can not be said for southern New England, because when you have a positively tilted trough like this, energy towards the base of the trough tends to lag behind, thus you can get secondary lows to form, however considering we do not have a decently negative NAO/AO, or a large block of high pressure to the north of the system, any secondary low pressure system may just scoot ENE out to sea.
Eric

January 20, 2013 at 2:45 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
Yeah, I think the Weatherbell AO/NAO models may go off of different algorithms, or use a different system to calculate them, but I honestly do not put a whole lot of faith in the NOAA models, it is better to look at the conditions at hand ( I certainly do not stare at model graphs for AO/NAO that’s for sure) to help you determine the validity of the forecasts and get a general idea of where the AO/NAO are going with stratospheric warming events, sunspot cycles and its associated indices, etc..,
Mike D

January 20, 2013 at 2:52 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Eric, any ideas on the new post release? Will it be tonight?
Tiara

January 20, 2013 at 3:12 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Eric. Thank u very much. And don’t let that yamahas guy get to u he’s such a jerk :*
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 3:37 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Mike d.. remember what I said in my blog…”its not my words ” …a met said the nao was going neutral or slightly positive….I’m not a met..just saying what I heard from a someone supposedly an expert…not spreading rumors..
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 3:41 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

And not for nothing, guys here talk about not believing models but more the teleconnections..
And ur posting snowammounts already for Fridays storm based on a ” model”…especially one that’s been off alot this season…hmmm
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 3:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

For those who want to know I don’t start anything remotely close to “rumors” or say anything that’s not being said….go to live weather.blog…it will show you what I’m talking about is not something I’m making up… unlike sum people
Mike D

January 20, 2013 at 3:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
I am clearly not basing my forecast “on a model” but interpreting the models, interpreting the teleconnections, and interpreting other factors. I then think about it, and look at the conditions before coming to snowfall conclusions.

I did not post “snowammounts already for Fridays storm based on a ” model” …especially one that’s been off alot this season…hmmm”

I specifically said this morning at 9:41 that,
“The Friday night storm looks like a great set up. I am expecting a good 4-8 inches for our area, but not ruling out more or less due to the time, 6 days out. It is a little bothersome that it looks like the PNA isn’t going to be consistently positive. As long as it stays positive until the Friday storm, were good for a while.”
Mike D

January 20, 2013 at 3:54 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
I’m not putting you down, nor saying that was a rumor, nor saying that you were necessarily wrong. I was just supporting the idea that the NAO was not necessarily going to be positive. Thats all.
Eric

January 20, 2013 at 3:59 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Mike D
I was a little busy yesterday, and if I wasn’t I would have probably put it out by tomorrow, however, right now, I’m trying to understand and trying to looks for at least a few answers on some concepts related to TSI, Sunspot cycles, etc.. and how these relate to the stratosphere, perhaps playing a role in the recent stratospheric warming event along with the Kelvin Wave, but we’ll see, as I’m always trying to do more research into understanding the weather when I make my posts
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 4:21 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Lol I’m the one that posted that about posting snow ammounts …I’m one that feels posting am mounts for snow based on a model that’s been off most of this winter season for me is funny cuz guys on here are the ones that say not put ur beliefs in them…I’m not starting trouble by the way…just trying to base my opinions
Jason Shaulov

January 20, 2013 at 4:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@autofill rob
You keep doing what your doing and well worry about what we are doing. I am done arguing with you and Yamaha
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 5:05 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Jason…wow…I’m not arguing with you…I’m just stating something from another site…this is a blog and everyone has the right to state their opinions… especially if we’re not arguing (as per yamahas) …I’m stating something from a met…didn’t agree wit them or said they were my words ..just wanted to say what others where saying… no arguments..
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 5:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Ive learned alot from listening to your blogs and especially Eric’s …never knew anything about Kelvin waves until I heard Eric talk about them…but I also go on other sites and learn from them and state my opinions… I’ve never argued wit anyone… don’t want anyone getting sensitive either about what I say..no need to.
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 5:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I’ve stated my opinions to Eric before and he never took it as an attack on.him…I respect him for that. It shows at the end of the day you could state ur feelings and thoughts but still be respectful of one another’s ideas…since u get sensitive about that…I’ll deal with Eric from now on.
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 5:45 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

And for those others on here…mike d,Eric,Armando,Mitchell west etc…sorry to take all that space…no hard feelings to you guys..
Armando

January 20, 2013 at 5:56 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Non taken Rob you’re just stateing your opinion and are posting things from other mets! It’s ok to show everyone what they saying! This clipper will be mostly for southern new england, but o well out chance might come Friday if we could get these factors to hold such as the cold and hopefully the NAO will be slightly negative and we could squeeze this one in! What you put up before about storms happening when the NAO was positive and PNA was negative …etc but yea it gives us hope so only time will tell! Hey also i see another chance after next week and even NEWW mentioned it so things are looking up!
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 6:04 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando …I feel you…and thanks for the support:) I saw that on NEWW too!
chintan

January 20, 2013 at 7:18 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Eric
hey everywhere snow falling but we r snow drought since 2 years in buford ga. I feel really jealous when I heard snow fall in somewhere.
Mike D

January 20, 2013 at 7:29 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ AutoFill Rob
No hard feelings taken. When I made that long post I was just showing that the person who said +NAO was probably wrong. No need to even state that. I think Eric, Armando and I are all smart enough not to get annoyed or angry by the earlier posts.
Armando

January 20, 2013 at 7:45 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey mike D thanks! So from what you showed i appreciated very much it’s just that which NAO do we go with? Noaa or weatherbell? Like what i mean is many mets are saying that friday’s event wont be significant because of the NAO, but if you go by noaa you can see and on the other hand you have weatherbell then you can say wow this storm should be big! You know what i’m saying? Like anything could happen with it so we have to wait and see
Mike D

January 20, 2013 at 8:03 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Armado, I agree. The difference is quite incredible. The models are in such disagreement with the NAO only 5 days out. Therefore, we cannot use the models to guide us on this storm. We will have to go by pure knowledge and one thing we do know: +PNA! I will post an update here later.
AutoFill Rob

January 20, 2013 at 8:23 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hello that’s what I was trying to point out! Its just crazy how different met interpret info n then make a forecast out of it…to me I figured they did their research and connections and then made a forecast…but alot just use the GFS and that’s like the Bible to them..
Mike D

January 20, 2013 at 9:03 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
There is this, which clearly shows the NAO staying neutral after the slight negative coming up.

In extreme contrast, after going to neutral, these have the NAO going negative:
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/cmc_nao_bias.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gefs_nao_06.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs_ext_nao_bias.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs_nao_bias.png

Though I believe the NAO will remain negative, and the PNA predominantly positive, I can’t put off the fact that some models beg to differ.
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gefs_nao_00.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gefs_nao_12.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf_nao_bias.png

The storm on Friday looks decent for the I-95 corridor, however, the model trending shows the bulk of the snow once again in the interior northeast. Areas from Central PA through northern NJ to northwestern Mass. could see 12+. areas S & W of there, but N & W of I-95 could see 6-12″. Areas S & W of I-95 will struggle to reach a few inches. This is a preliminary forecast, and is subject to change. The aforementioned snow totals are mine, not a model or any other person.

There are dates beyond then that look promising, though far out, the 29th, and the 4-5th of February.

I do wish I was part of the team, and could make a post on all of this.

Please approve this and get ready for Winter’s return!
Eric

January 21, 2013 at 8:06 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Well, well, well, looks like the GFS has come around and pushed the axis of snow farther to the south & east, (as I anticipated), as it is beginning to feedback on some of the snowfall from this current clipper system, and the next one coming behind it later this week, however, we are still seeing large flip-flopping in solutions, evidence that the model is having a difficult time deciphering the set-up, thus there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with this, although the trend has undeniably been farther south and east with the heaviest axis of snow.
Eric

January 21, 2013 at 10:17 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ chintan
Lol, I’m dealing with the same problem here is south-central NC, have not seen snow down here in 2 years, but I know that if that recent storm had shifted just 50-100 miles south and temperatures were just a degree or two cooler, would have been a much different story over the southern US, and really all it takes is one storm, and usually average snowfall totals for the season are reached or even surpassed, especially along and south of I-20.
Tim Johnson

January 21, 2013 at 12:55 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Is there a chance that the storm track can shift 50 -100 miles south to the point where Raleigh can get major snowfall. The Thursday storm wasn’t that impressive and could the southern U.S see more snowstorms this year?
Jason Shaulov

January 21, 2013 at 1:08 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Tim Johnson
Of course the southern U.S can see more snowstorms this year February will be a cray month for all;).
Eric

January 21, 2013 at 1:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ TIm Johnson
Yes, (I also agree with Jason that February could be a great month) of course, you realize that ONLY a 50-100 mile shift in track of that storm on Thursday would have resulted in major snows for the Raleigh-Durham area like what was experienced over towards the Triad, Roxboro, Richmond, etc, even where they experienced thundersnow at times, that was an impressive storm, the low snowfall totals should not deter you on this. I’ll have more on that storm in my new post and explain the pattern that went into it.