Final Update On NC Winter Storm

winter 1winter 2

Matthew

About Matthew

Hey, My name is Matt im 17 years old. I am a weatherforecaster for the southeast United States. I have always loved the weather ever since I was a kid. Sometimes me and my dad will chase storms just for fun. I have captured some incredible and intense weather before and hope to continue that. I have expereinced a tornado, and a tropical storm. I have also experienced severe ice-storms and heavy snowfall. I am just facinated with the weather. My favorite season during the year is winter. I like the cold brisk days and the snow on the ground. When it comes to forecasting the weather i do my best, and get the information people want, out there.

32 comments on “Final Update On NC Winter Storm

  1. Matthew this event isnt going to produce this much precip at all. 1/2 inch of ice? That’s a destructive ice storm. Even a quarter of inch of ice is very dangerous and your saying just north of charlotte could get a inch of ice/freezing rain? That is ridiculous and on top of a inch of snow! No one is calling doe that much at all. None of the local meteorologists from stations such as wcnc, wbtv, wsoc, or news14 which all run out of charlotte. Even the winter weather advisory didnt say that much! An we all know the winter weather advisories and warning the national weather service post are always over hyped! The system is suppose to be moisture starved. Everyone is estimating there being 0.05 to 0.10 of freezing rain, .25 of a inch of sleet and maybe a dusting of snow from the onset of the precip. It’s not that big of a event at all. I know you want a winter storm and trust me I do too I live in Columbia sc where we get even less but there is no reason in hyping up the forecast bro
  2. yes i know that was the earlier advisory earlier today but now the new one said anywhere from .10 of inch to .40 inch of ice with an inch of sleet and snow.
  3. @ Yamahas and other bloggers
    Just in case you missed it, my new post was posted several days ago, and unlike what Yamahas is saying winter is here and here to stay, hard to say spring is here when the temperature fails to reach freezing in Phuladelphia and when there have been persistent winter storms, Yamahas you just need to stop making yourself look stupid, but if you want to continue to post to troll everyone, the blame is on you when no one believes you and when your comments continued to be deleted.
    http://weatheradvance.com/2013/01/21/ideas-for-southern-us-winter-storm-in-early-january-verify-continuing-with-ideas-for-worst-of-winter-lurking-late-jan-feb-perspective-on-the-winter-thus-far/
  4. Hey Yamahas, then after that it is probably supposed to get into the mid thirties in your area ( I don’t know how cold but it is supposed to be cold, in raleigh it is supposed to be 40)
  5. Mmm speaking of racing I took my sti out on the ice/snow last night. The handling was out of this world. Only lost traction when I wanted it too. Wink*
  6. I’m am starting to think that some weather forecasters are hyping up the stratosphere warming and a lot of people said that there will be record breaking snow or record cold temperatures but neither has happened. I prefer warm and no snow than cold and no snow. When could Chicago can get into the heavy snow? I don’t like the dry winter pattern at all.
  7. @ Yamahas
    So you are going to completely ignore the recent snowfall or the fact that temperatures have not risen to freezing over the last few days, or the ice that will occur before any warm-up happens, with some snow mixed in especially north of I-80. You are going to have a lot of waiting to do for spring, at least going to have to get through the rest of February if not even the first week of March.
  8. @ Derickeuegeneree
    Yes, you’re exactly right, you are indeed seeing a little bit of Lake effect snow, a few snow flurries and snow showers in a few isolated bands have shown up on radar coming from the Finger Lakes, Lakes Ontario and Erie as well (very interesting considering how isolated the snowbands are), amazing considering their limited intensity and the fact that the lake effect snow bands have to cross the mountains as well.
  9. I gave up on winter after this last storm,I respect everyone’s opinions here in these blogs…but for me this winter was hyped…and besides it being more colder than last year and a few more storms..this winter hasn’t been nothing to write home about. Besides the strat warming event it wasn’t record breaking cold…not unlike Russia or Europe… at least they had the record cold AND the snow. Maybe next year the teleconnections match up and we’ll have a better winter as far as snowstorms. Til then,pipe down on the “hype”…and more on just the forecasting..
  10. @ Rick
    Lol, how ironic, one of my friends here in NC said he was doing the exact same thing in the snow & ice, sounds like you had a lot of fun, even sloppy ice events can turn out to be plenty of fun (I personally like to play hockey in the street, so awesome!)
  11. @ AutoFill Rob and Rod Houston
    Both of you do understand it is still late January, and you also realize we have gone this entire winter without ANY MJO support, finally going to see it enter octants 8,1,2, and 3, currently in 7 and is headed towards 8, thanks to the warmer than normal waters over the deep tropical Atlantic enhancing upward motion. It is not smart at all to give up on the pattern, because all it really takes is one storm, and all of the sudden the winter can turn out to be unbelievable, March of 1993 Superstorm and the Blizzard of 1996 are perfect examples of this. Plus, the pattern has gotten better, as I said it would, although not the degree of cold observed in 1984, but you must realize we have received these cold shots with the MJO towards the western Pacific, amazing we are this cold, because the MJO over the western Pacific usually induces significant warmth for the eastern US, just imagine what will happen when the MJO finally enters the Atlantic for the first time this entire winter coming up.
    Also, Rod Houston I understand your frustration in getting little snow, but this pattern has gotten better as a whole, even for Chicago, in fact, you were finally able to break the streak of day without 1 inch snows on Thursday, and this next storm could produce some light-moderate snowfall accumulations before changing to ice, but I honestly don’t know why you’re really complaining now, this is the snowiest the pattern has been all winter for Chicago (may not be saying much).
    I strongly caution anyone to claim this winter was over and to start to think about spring, just look at what happened to Yamahas, as soon as he opened his mouth, then came the arctic air and a series of Alberta Clippers, plus February is the climatologically favored month for snow in the northeast as a whole, certainly not a time to give up and claim this was all hype, if you are going to do so, perhaps this would be understandable if we were nearing March (still a little risky even then), but it is not wise at all while we are in the middle of winter.
  12. @ Jake Schiller
    Lol, thanks for reminding me, saw it earlier today, but I have been busy up to the last hour or so. As far as when will we see a good winter storm and will it be cold for February, I definitely think it will be a colder than normal February, if you have been following my posts (in case you haven’t suggest you to read my latest one from January 21st) where I outline the conditions at hand, and as I’ve been saying since about December 23rd, this winter appeared to back loaded based off of the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly, which has verified thus far this winter, because the anomaly was well below normal to start (representative of the beginning of December), and it was quite warm in the beginning of December. The anomaly dipped slightly, closing in on neutral towards the early stages of the month of October, correlating with slightly later in the winter, and no surprises here, the pattern turned colder and snowier over much of the US. However, by mid month, the anomaly remained stationed for a while near neutral, perhaps representative of a “break” in winter, which occurred in mid-January, then it went to well above normal in a hurry late month and stayed there through the end of October, representative of what we are currently seeing where the winter has certainly turned around in late January, and it only looks to improve into February, The reason I say this goes back to the MJO, a very important oscillation in anytime of the year, especially during the winter and hurricane season. What we have witnessed thus far this winter is the MJO has either remained neutral or was over the western Pacific, neither a favorable position for the MJO to produce cold over the eastern US, yet, we have seen arctic air attempt to infiltrate the US, and it has been successful, but the MJO has helped to moderate to a certain extent. Now, with the MJO finally coming towards the Atlantic (for reasons I explain in my newest post on Jan 21st), for the first time this winter, this will help to activate the southern branch of the jet stream, by inducing low pressures over the tropics in our part of the world, helps to amplify troughs in the mid-latitudes and energizes the subtropical jet stream. Considering this along the with Lezak Recurring Cycle, which is essentially in simpler terms a repetitive pattern in weather over a certain period of time, especially prominent in the winter, and can range from 40-60 days, with the current cycle actually near 52 days. Here’s the link to the site I use to look at similarities in the 500 millibar level of the atmosphere, especially in times where I am confused on where a certain pattern may go. (link)http://archive.atmos.colostate.edu/ (link to the 500 millibar heights and temps, I also use these maps in my posts) http://archive.atmos.colostate.edu/data/misc/QHTA11/ In this cycle, I have taken note of where this 52 day period currently puts us, interestingly right near the beginning of December, when the pattern was considerably warm. What I noted in that pattern was how it started off quite warm (which is where this pattern will go for a few days Jan 29-31 in general), but by the 2nd week of December, thanks to the Kelvin Wave over the Pacific, arctic air tried to push southward, but since the pattern was quite warm before the arctic air mass came, it only helped to drive the temperatures down to near normal to slightly below normal, however, knowing the cycle is repetitive, and how we are already cold now, not to mention the large stratospheric warming event offering more support for cold, the arctic air coming after this brief warm-up will be particularly strong. Also, what this cold shot did in December was it activated a storm track, which started over the upper midwest in early December with a blizzard near Minneapolis. What this blizzard did was by laying down snow, the snow itself reflects 85-90% of solar radiation, thus cools the surrounding air, and by the air cooling, it raises the surface pressures. With higher surface pressures in place, the next major low pressure system that came along several days later was influenced by this, in that the higher pressures helped to “block” the progress of the low pressure system, thus forcing it farther south and east, With this low pressure farther south and east, the snow that went along with it was farther south and east, and thus this cycle of reflected solar radiation and higher pressures continued until finally the storm track reached bottom with a storm system that dumped an unusually large amount of snow over northern Mexico, SW texas, and SE New Mexico in early January, I did predict for a major winter storm over the southern US in early January, although there officially was a major winter storm over the southern US, it was not the way I thought it would occur, and the simple reason is the system that was over the southwestern US was too slow and was not able to transfer its energy eastward into the Gulf of Mexico, thus is got stuck over the southwestern US, and dumped its snow there. However, it would not have taken much for that storm system to come eastward, thus this winter storm in the first few days if January may be something to keep track of in accordance to the Lezal Recurring Cycle. If the LRC verifies and there is a storm system about 52 days after the previous one that occurred in the early stages of January, this would correlate to about Mid February for something similar to occur then, and knowing how little it would have taken for the storm to come east into the Gulf of Mexico, the southern US may need to be weary if this were to come up again. Also taking into account conditions in the weather pattern becoming even more favorable as we get into February for winter storms over the southern US ( I outline the ideal pattern in the southern US in my previous post and the other one made on December 23rd) with the MJO finally entering the Atlantic for the first time this winter, things will certainly get interesting for sure as we head into February, but although predicting precisely when a ‘large” ( a matter of opinion) winter storm will hit a particular area in the southern US is nearly impossible, definitely favor Mid-February for a major winter storm to occur. There are large amounts of uncertainty in this at this time and it is bound to change, but it it is the best I have to offer at this point.
  13. @ Jacob
    Lol, he’s just trolling, he lives just west of Philadelphia and it has snowed numerous times (a few decent snows as well) there, he’s just mad because there are no “large” snows (at least in his opinion) over his area yet like what was observed in 2009-10 and 2010-11, yet he completely fails to understand that such snows don’t come around every winter, and can go several years without a major one, plus we aren’t even in February yet, (the climatologically favored snow month for the northeast) and it is not smart to suddenly give up on winter or claim spring is here when it has clearly been cold, areas west of Philadelphia have struggled to even reach freezing the last several days, plus with the MJO coming around for the first time this winter, it looks like the best has yet to come, but we shall see what happens.
  14. @ Yamahas
    “@Eric. Looks like your starting to lose some of your followers just like Joe Bastardi. U guys have alot in common. ( hyped and busted forecast and losing followers ).”
    Lol, Joe Bastardi has over 13,500 followers and more on his website, lol, he’s only gaining them, and plus you have lost ALL of your credibility here on this site for your persistent trollish behavior, personal & Ad Hominem Attacks, etc. not to mention your newest comment. :)
  15. Well, Derickeugeneree, that seems a little far fetched. I think the 3rd will be a light clipper in your area (Not THAT far from my area). The one to worry about is the 6th. This is because there was a very strong storm in the upper Pacific about 1.5 weeks ago, and I heard it teleconnects to a very intense storm on the east coast 18- 21 days later which would bring it to about the 6th. This morning’s GFS actually had a storm, though only 3-6 inches, that is a sign as to what it could be.

    This looks good: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zensp008snow156.gif

    Looking at one after the 6th too: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnowdepth372.gif

  16. All I have to say is, if you are in the northeast, you’re going to get just about on of everything weather has to offer you this week, from snow changing to ice (eventually rain) tomorrow, to a few days of spring like warmth, severe weather to go along with the frontal passage, then more cold and snow follows behind the cold front mid week with a series of Alberta Clippers rotating around a gyre of low pressure in eastern Canada. What more could you possibly ask for, lol?
  17. @Yamahas, just be quiet, Philadelphia doesn’t get one of those every year just like Eric said a little earlier, the 2 winters before last we’re some of the best winters you will get. Dont expect every winter to be like that, and Eric i know he is being annoying (almost as annoying as my brother) but i can fight him (online).
  18. @ Yamahas
    Oh wait I thought “winter is over”, seems like you are even admitting with persistent winter storms (albeit small-moderate snow events) that you’re wrong, lol.

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