Jan 26 2013

February Forecast

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About the author

Matthew

Hey my name is Matthew Hatley. I am 16 and I always loved the weather ever since I was a baby. I used to stand at the door and watch the lightning during thunderstorms. I was a little chap when I used to do that. I am a meterologist for mainly the southeast but occasinally I do forecasts for the whole country. I do my best to give information about the weather to people who ask me what the weather will be like for the day, or the week. My favorite time of the year is winter. I do the best weather forecasting during the winter. I enjoy all of the people who view my forecast, but not only mine but all the other forecasters at Weatheradvance.com

205 comments

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biggamefisherman1000

February 4, 2013 at 4:32 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

CHAT!!!

Link: http://xat.com/TheBiggamefisherman1000StormTrackers
Armando

February 4, 2013 at 5:40 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey Erix crazy game yesterday eh? I thought it was a great super bowl and commercials….ehh well not too impressed although some were funny lol! So now everyone is talking about this friday storm and i’m getting very anxious on what could happen! Some models show a big storm such as euro, but don’t think its going to happen. Well what i really want to know is do you think N NJ northward could get hit from the looks of it or too early? I’m wondering if cold air will be a available and also that little warm up, will that be short lived? Also I checked the latest NAO from noaa and its surpisingly starting to head toward negative! Wow well you were right all along and never doubted you! Lots of weather coming up! O and also one more thing, would that storm friday’s track depend on the snow that the clippers will lay down or will have any affect on it? Another possibility is we could get the backend snow but time will tell!
Eric

February 5, 2013 at 4:36 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
I’m sorry I haven’t been able to answer comments the last several days, I have been busy, but it looks like this next storm will be a very big one if you’re in southern New England where totals could range from 1-2 feet in many areas. New York City and northern New Jersey look to be on the southern edge of this, and it will be a very tough call on exact snow totals, but it looks like you should at least see some snow from this before it is all set and done. Also, people complaining about this 2-3 day warm-up need to look at the entire picture, because for one it has been relatively cold and stormy, as I said it would be starting in late January with the arctic outbreak, and now with the upward phase of the MJO and a sudden -SOI drop, this has added lots of energy into the subtropical jet, thus it greatly increases the chances for phasing and big storms to form. Things only look to get better from here as the MJO deepens into the “jackpot” octants 2 and 3, especially octant 3 where not only does it favor arctic blocking because of the MJO being near Africa, weakening the Azores High, which naturally forces the NAO negative, but also forces a strong subtropical jet stream and trough near the east coast, both of which are very favorable for big storms near the east coast, and not surprisingly the ECMWF has a really big one around Valentine’s Day (also mentioned something about this earlier and its connection to the Lezak Recurring Cycle.) due to the system that dives into the southwestern US spliting energy as the northern region of vorticity and low pressure “feels” a shortwave trough to the north in southern Canada, while ridging builds in the wake of this “trapping” any region of low pressure over the southwestern US, and as this comes eastward, it encounters a favorable environment of sufficient Gulf of Mexico moisture and a strong difference in temperature and pressure over the US as the trough that will head into the Great Lakes leaves behind cold air, forcing a rise in surface pressures over this area relative to the low pressures to the south, thus forcing air into this region of low pressure, causing intensification. With the LRC, the NAO due to the MJO towards Octant 3 lowering heights near the Azores, and because of the fact that we have subtropical energy in place, the conditions may be coming together for something fairly significant around Valentine’s Day, of course many of you in the northeast I’m sure would “love” to see at least one nice snowstorm before this winter is out, we shall see what happens.
Armando

February 5, 2013 at 4:58 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Yea same Eric i’ve been busy with so much school work hate it lol! Well honestly i came home today and checked all my weather sites haha and like all of a sudden this “mega storm” has a great chance of coming true and i’m really siked for this even though we won’t be jackpot, but we could get in on the snow! So it seems we are right on the snow/rain boundary, but it seems the zero line according to joe b’s video was like 50 miles south of us! Also could dynamic cooling take place as this storm begins to deepen and move northward? I’m so anxious to see how many inches we could get, but i’ll have to wait until we get closer to the storm! O man Eric I haven’t been this excited about a storm since 2011 lol! Anyway whatever happens to this storm, we have another one valentine’s day like you mentioned and whats even better is we could finally see a major nor’easter for us and we could be in the “jackpot”! The NAO is going to dip negative by then so it’s going to be a very interesting week next week and this week! Just hope we can get some snow with this upcoming one! Also one more thing as that storm pulls away, wouldn’t the cold air rush in and we could get fast accumulating snow? Can’t wait haha!
Mike D

February 5, 2013 at 9:58 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

It’s been very slow around here the past few days. Armando, I hope the cold air remains in place for just enough time. How about we take a wild guess at snow totals (accumulated)? I say 4 for our area. The ECMWF looks to have a good handle on this storm. Don’t forget, this is the storm that tele connected from the strong upper-Pacific storm in mid-January. If you look at some of the ECMWF ensembles though, they’re crazy! they range from (in our area) 0″-25″!!! NAO and AO crashed today. Great sign!!!