After taking a look at all of the recent model runs, it appears as if a consensus has come upon us. So I am comfortable with my snowfall map. (Below) Right now it looks like this upcoming storm may start as some sleet in DC, Baltimore and in Philadelphia, but afterwards change over to rain. This storm will result into a classic nor’easter. A clipper will come from Canada and merge with a developing coastal low from the Gulf of Mexico and will merge off the coast of New Jersey. Cold air will wrap into this storm in time for New York City and even extreme northeastern portions of New Jersey to get significant snowfall from this storm. As it heads towards Boston it will be at it’s strongest and will deliver blizzard conditions. Pretty much if you live anywhere north of the PA/NY boarder you will likely receive a good 6-12″ of snow. Winter storm conditions from the clipper will result in Michigan, where in Detroit they are seeing an above average winter season. (see winter has not been terrible for everyone lol)
New York City by the way is tricky. You are on the boarder, but recent models have shown that you all will get a decent amount of snow.
Key Snowfall Predictions:
New York City: 6-12″ Snow to Mix & Rain then quickly back to snow.
Albany: 6-12″ All Snow
Boston: 14-20″ All Snow, Some sleet may mix in. (Blizzard Warning Expected)
Scranton PA: 6-12″ All Snow
Philadelphia: Mainly Rain, May mix with sleet at first, May end as some wet snow. Little to No accumulations expected.
February Pattern:
For those of you in Central Pennsylvania that will receive mainly rain or nothing at all, have no fear. The winter pattern seems to have shifted and looks in the favor right now of those in Central Pennsylvania and the interior sections of the Northeast. Right now I think the best chances of snow, lie North of the Mason Dixon line and primarily West of I-95 going all the way up to Boston. In other words areas south of the Mason Dixon Line, expect rain for areas East of I-95 all the way up to Boston. Expect rain for the most part, aside from this storm, there is a storm setting it’s eyes on the 12-14th of this month, But it looks like it will be an active month, so snow chances I think will abound for interior areas. Not much cold air will be available, So snow in the big cites will be hard to come by. Below is what in general I expect for most of February. Any questions or comments please leave below, and I will try to answer as many as I can. Take care guys and for those who are getting snow, enjoy it. Make sure to send your snow pictures to weather.advance@yahoo.com and you might get to see them on the website.
Loading tweets...
36 comments
Skip to comment form ↓
Derickeugeneree
February 6, 2013 at 6:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Dante' Brown-Royal
February 6, 2013 at 6:37 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
r
February 6, 2013 at 6:56 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Derickeugeneree
February 6, 2013 at 7:20 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 7:22 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
No, you were not banned, at least according to what I know, plus you ask fairly good questions and contribute quite nicely to this website, thus I see no reason at all to ban you, perhaps there may be some sort of glitch, and maybe Dante could help you figure that out.
John Michael
February 6, 2013 at 7:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 7:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yeah, and that isn’t all, another system will be on the way as we approach Valentine’s Day, and the ECMWF model in particular is suggesting up to 40-50 inches of snow total from these two storms alone, which would be absolutely unbelievable, but not out of the realm of possibility.
AutoFill Rob
February 6, 2013 at 7:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 8:03 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’m doing great actually, and right now I’m in the process of making a post (much shorter than normal with more focus on these upcoming systems) which will explain some of my thoughts. As far as NYC getting into blizzard criteria, do not rule it out, but NYC is going to be a very tough call on snow because you sit on the southern edge of the heavy snow in southern New England, and the snowfall forecasts could vary quite dramatically with the latest RAP model showing 20 inches, of course the ECMWF showing the potential for nearly a foot, but we’ll see what happens, going to need to get closer to this event to determine precise snowfall totals.
Wasi
February 6, 2013 at 8:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mitchell West
February 6, 2013 at 8:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Armando
February 6, 2013 at 8:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 8:34 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Oh, I wouldn’t say that just yet, you may be speaking too soon, because just like in December where two major winter storms went into the northeast, the pattern ended in early January with a major winter storm in the southern US (towards SW Texas and northern Mexico), and although that storm did not effect areas farther east, if this same storm formed in the current pattern , different results would occur due to the significantly stronger subtropical jet stream in place now thanks to the -SOI plunge and the upward MJO.
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 8:36 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
No, not even close, this next storm towards Valentine’s Day will be much farther south and east than this current one, thus poses a much more significant threat for snowfall in northern Virginia, I honestly see absolutely no reason to call this winter over yet, because the best has yet to come, just ask the people in New England in a few days as they dig out from 1-2 feet of snow, with isolated areas seeing potentially more.
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 8:39 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Wow, a very tough call, at this point, I’ll go with a conservative 4-8 inches, although you do realize a 50 mile shift in snowfall totals could easily mean your area closes in on one foot of snow in a hurry. I’m glad you’re excited about this pattern, because I am as well. Another thing to get excited about is my new post that will be coming out tonight, although much shorter than usual because I am putting more focus on these specific winter storms, still looks to be a good one nonetheless.
Armando
February 6, 2013 at 8:44 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
jrweaherman
February 6, 2013 at 8:46 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Dan
February 6, 2013 at 8:49 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Wasi
February 6, 2013 at 8:50 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mike D
February 6, 2013 at 9:05 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 9:06 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
I’ll hopefully be able to explain it better so you can see my rationale on this potential Valentine’s Day storm also noticed Joe Bastardi is hinting at it as well and he also notes that the storm around Valentine’s Day would further south than the current one, which raises the potential for snow in your area, potentially significant snow at that.
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 9:08 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
There may very well be some mixing, but when it changes to completely all snow, it is likely to fall quite heavily and to be accompanied by strong winds, potentially into tropical storm force, which does give at least some potential for blizzard conditions in NYC, but the real question will be if NYC can actually meet the official “blizzard” criteria.
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 9:11 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Another thing you have to consider with rapidly intensifying regions of low pressure is the atmosphere can be quite dynamic and unstable, thus thundersnow to go along with the heavy snow and wind is also possible.
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 9:13 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
It looks like it will be a close-call at this point for central NC and we will have to monitor the situation closely, but I think that the main axis of snow may fall just to the north of central NC in towards the mid-atlantic, including Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Roanoke, etc.. but there is a lot of uncertainty at this point, its just that this is where I currently stand in this situation.
Eric
February 6, 2013 at 9:15 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Yeah I’m not exactly sure when all of the models will come into agreement, but it looks like the ECMWF may be scoring a big one here as other models like the GFS are being forced to correct towards its solution, and let’s not forget I did give you fair warning about this system several days ago when I looked at the ECMWF and realized the supportive conditions developing at hand.
Armando
February 6, 2013 at 9:16 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Dustin
February 6, 2013 at 9:19 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Tim Perkins
February 6, 2013 at 9:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Mike D
February 6, 2013 at 9:50 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Connor
February 6, 2013 at 9:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
-Thanks
Mike D
February 6, 2013 at 9:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Eric
February 7, 2013 at 7:04 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Like I told Wasi, this winter is really giving the best it has to offer now and for the next few weeks, and if you look at my new post, I show you why we need to watch the storm system around Valentine’s Day, because that could be a big one as well, but should be farther south and east than this current system.
Eric
February 7, 2013 at 7:10 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
Well, you know how it is when you’re in a warm AMO, cold PDO, like we were in the 1950s where any precip is hard to come by, and that looks to be the case here, although the trough currently off of the northwest coast of the US could provide just enough energy for an opportunity for some winter weather in 5 days or so, but that system looks to be most impactful for areas further east where we could have another system to watch near the east coast around Valentine’s Day.
Eric
February 7, 2013 at 7:13 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
That is a very tough call for central NJ as some deviation in track could increase snowfall totals there, plus with an east wind coming off of the ocean, some “ocean effect snow” can also help to increase snowfall totals, but for now I’ll go with a 2-4 inch storm in your area, but this is likely to dramatically change in time, as your area sits on the southern edge of the heavier snowfall that will be felt towards NYC and into southern New England.
Derickeugeneree
February 7, 2013 at 8:37 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment
marandag29
February 8, 2013 at 5:25 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment