Feb 07 2013

New Snowfall Prediction Map – Final

This is my final snowfall prediction map. I decided to go a little more aggressive with snowfall predictions (Note: if you are south of the mason Dixon line you will see all rain.) Areas like New York City are currently under blizzard Warnings. Here’s my updated map.

Key Snowfall Predictions:

New York City: 12-14″+ Snow to Mix & Rain then quickly back to snow. (Blizzard Warning)

Albany: 6-12″ All Snow (Winter Storm Warning)

Boston: 16-24″ All Snow, Some sleet may mix in. (Blizzard Warning)

Scranton PA: 6-12″ All Snow (Winter Storm Warning)

Philadelphia: Rain TO Snow 2-4″+ (Winter Weather Advisory)

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About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

23 comments

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Eric

February 8, 2013 at 6:46 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Even though I am busy I do want to make a quick comment that these snowfall totals above look way underdone, I think many areas of southern New England will get 2 feet of snow, and near NYC, and even areas south of the Mason-Dixon line and into Virginia will get snow, possibly a light accumulation in some spots under one inch.
derickeugeneree

February 8, 2013 at 7:50 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Will it snow in march in my area?
Yamahas

February 8, 2013 at 11:04 am (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Watching radar and it’s just sliding northeast
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 4:17 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Yamahas
You seriously have no idea what’s going on for areas to your northeast towards NYC and Boston, who are going to see a storm of historic proportions, you really have lost the argument that spring is here, especially when over 2 feet of snow will fall in much of southern New England
Wasi

February 8, 2013 at 4:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey Eric, I’m not seeing any cold weather next. I thought the forecast would change but it still shows mild temps all next week and It’s also not showing a storm on valentines day. Why is that happening because the mjo is in octant 1 and forecasting to go to 2 and 3 by next week and it is suppose to get cold and stormy.
Kyle

February 8, 2013 at 4:53 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Great post.

I heard on the new today that the European Models predicted this storm days before the US forecasters did and that the European Models are better for predicting storms than the us model.

Can you please comment on that? Whats your opinion on it as it relates to this current storm?

Here is a similar post on Sandy. Again, my question is what do you think?
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/12/why-european-forecasters-saw-sandys-path-first/
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 5:01 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Wasi
I honestly do not know where you are seeing this because there still will be a Valentine’s Day system, although it looks like it will effect areas from the southern plains into the Carolinas and Virginia at this time, but I see no way temperatures are going to end up being “mild” especially with the pattern in place. Where exactly are you getting this information?
Wasi

February 8, 2013 at 5:10 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@Eric, I’m checking the weatherbug, weather.com, accuweather, wunderground and they forecast 40′s and 50′s. For thursday the 14th it says it’s sunny with 40s for high for my area.
Derickeugeneree

February 8, 2013 at 5:35 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I’m jealous that my area isn’t going to get 2 feet of snow not even a coating so disappointing but hopefully eaither this month or march my area will get clobbered like in New England and main.
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 5:37 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Wasi
Lol, and do you think those sites had a significant snowfall forecasted for today 3-4 days ago over the northeast today? Probably not, plus I don’t see how its going to be in the 40s when areas to your south into VA and parts of the Carolinas may be dealing with snow as we get into Valentine’s Day, plus their forecasts once you get out into the longer ranges have a tendency to go towards climatology, and I have seen time and time again where their long range forecasts are off by several if not up to 10 degrees. It is better to stick with the pattern and the conditions at hand rather than to get involved in long range local forecasts, because they probably will dramatically change from now until then.
derickeugeneree

February 8, 2013 at 5:43 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I don’t know what other models are saying but the gfs is showing storm after storm coming into the east coast and heading into at least southern PA and in PA also I hope it comes true.
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 6:07 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Derickuegeneree
Yes, I am watching that storm, and the one around Valentine’s Day may result in some light snowfall accumulations, of course things could change, but I’m thinking that system in particular will result in a band of snow from western Texas and Oklahoma to Virginia and North Carolina with some snow potentially extending north of there into Maryland and NJ, but it is too early to get worried about exact snowfall possibilities. Plus, I am very intrigued to be seeing not just one model, but several models showing several different storm scenarios for later in the month and it makes sense that a monster storm could be lurking overall for the central and/or eastern US within the next week or two as conditions get even more favorable as the MJO heads into the “jackpot” octants 2 and 3 with a very active subtropical jet stream underneath
Wasi

February 8, 2013 at 6:18 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Where in Virginia is it snowing. Is the storm southern track of my area and if that is the case then it might miss the the I-95 corridor like it did back in January.
armando

February 8, 2013 at 6:27 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Yea 10-14 is awesome!! I’m sure i’ll end up with a foot or maybe a little more! Anyway when you said “a monster storm could be lurking” actually shocked me because I’d think the one occurring as we speak would be the monster storm, but you know what this is only the beginning of a very wild Feb!! So this “monster storm” makes perfect sense given the MJO going to the “jackpot” stages like you mentioned, PLUS blocking. So you think my area could see what boston and SNE are about to experience from that monster storm? I’m sure we will get hammered by it, but time will tell and also whats your thoughts on that valentine’s day storm? Are models picking up a snowstorm for i-95 next week? Well Eric much to cover over the next few weeks, and glad i’m aboard lol. So now when will my area see the worst of the storm and will we be in that 2/3″ per hr bands for a few hours or so?
AutoFill Rob

February 8, 2013 at 7:13 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Hey Eric…storm had let up here for about 30mins…now its picked up again in intensity.. really coming down now…big wet flakes..
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 7:31 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Wasi and other bloggers
I am currently in the process of making a new post, to reiterate some of my ideas from the post a few days ago and to update on the storm, plus what looks to be coming down the road in the next week or so as the pattern remains very favorable for major winter storms in the eastern and central US.
Armando

February 8, 2013 at 7:34 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Ok looking forward to the post Eric thanks! Just a quick question when will we get out of this dry spot? It looks like we are in the middle of dryness and then to our right and left its snowing, so what i’m saying is when will the snow fill up our area? Also will we be in some heavy bands producing 1-2″ per hr? Thanks!
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 7:44 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
It should flip over within the next few hours as the low pressure system associated with the moisture towards eastern PA merges and fills in with the very heavy precipitation occurring east of NYC, and it seems like you are just in a random dry slot for the moment, and yes snowfall rates should dramatically begin to increase again closer to 1-2 inches an hour as these two low pressure systems are in the process of phasing, thus a much bigger storm will quickly take shape and the precipitation shield on the western and southwestern sides of the low pressure area south of New England.
Armando

February 8, 2013 at 9:32 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Well we are gettinf heavy snow so thats good news! Well Eric i’m looking at the radar and I see to our left that it’s cuttinf off, but as this storm strengthens will that just extend as the low moves northward? Honestly if we had more blocking we would be talking amounts as high as boston, but we will get that “monster storm” soon. So now looking for the next storm haha so could that be valentine’s day or later next weekend because some are saying valentine’s and others such as new england weather works has for us a storm next sunday so will their be 2 storms or is that the same one? I know its far out but odds are in our favor and this storm was predicted like more than a week away and look what happened a historic blizzard for NE! Looking forward to your new post today if not tomorrow!
Eric

February 8, 2013 at 10:51 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

@ Armando
Well, I just released my newest post, hopefully answering some of your questions
hockeymom

February 9, 2013 at 5:06 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

Ummm Dante Why am I being banned ???? I haven’t done or said anything ????
Mike D

February 9, 2013 at 5:52 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I’m banned on the newest post by Eric!!!
jrweatherman

February 9, 2013 at 6:14 pm (UTC -4) Link to this comment

I was banned too!