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Feb 09 2013

Matthew

A possible North Carolina Snowstorm On The Horizon?

Now dont get to excited yet this is a long way’s out. Anything can happen, this could happen or be a bust. So take this with a grain of salt.

nc

nc3

About the author

Matthew

Matthew

Hey, My name is Matt im 17 years old. I am a weatherforecaster for the southeast United States. I have always loved the weather ever since I was a kid. Sometimes me and my dad will chase storms just for fun. I have captured some incredible and intense weather before and hope to continue that. I have expereinced a tornado, and a tropical storm. I have also experienced severe ice-storms and heavy snowfall. I am just facinated with the weather. My favorite season during the year is winter. I like the cold brisk days and the snow on the ground. When it comes to forecasting the weather i do my best, and get the information people want, out there.

35 comments

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  1. biggamefisherman1000
    We’ll see what happens with this. The models are being updated right now. So we’ll see. Defiantly snow in NJ. I think the models have been going though some issues. Maybe tomorrow they’ll be fixed. Don’t know about NC getting 12+. Too warm. But we’ll see.
  2. Maranda
    Well if it does happen Jacksonville Nc will be left out again. Im sick of us here not getting any snow. We haven’t had a single snowy day in two years.
    So much for snow this winter. I guess my daughter will have to wait till next winter to see if it snows so she can build a snowman. This winter has been a Big let down.
  3. CV
    Well looks like the storm for NC area is gone did not see it on the models this morning maybe i am missing something but it was nice to think for a day that we might get some snow back to this area
  4. jrweatherman
    I really hope this happens, I need snow
  5. Mike D
    BTW, guys, the 6z GFS model this morning shows a major storm for NC on the 22nd.
  6. Armando
    Hey mike D and Eric, well i just finished reading joe b’s sunday post and well he pretty much just talked about a storm similar to feb 17th, 1972( moms bday) and that their could be one similar to it and that follows up what you’ve said Eric about a very serious storm around the 17th! Wow that made my day lol, so now just want to know either mike or Eric if any models are picking up on that storm. Also the valentine’s day storm looks interesting, but not sure how far north it can reach so just have to watch it! I’m more concerned now about late next weekend! Really want this ” monster storm”!
  7. Wasi
    Hey Eric, Is the storm around the 17th develop on time because the MJO is predicting to enter octant 4. I have a doubt if that will happen. Do you think the storm will develop right before it enters octant 4?
  8. Mike D
    Armando, I think the Valentine’s Day storm will be a bust with 2 or 3 inches of snow. I agree, the one to watch is the 17th.
  9. Rod Houston
    I don’t see a storm system on the 17th on any models. I also very concerned that we will enter a 4 MJO oct. This winter could be over as soon as early next week.Is there a chance that a major storm will pop up again on the models?
  10. derickeugeneree
    will the storm on the 17th affect my area?
  11. Derickeugeneree
    How is the valintines storm looking for my area?
  12. Jacob
    MJO isnt the only teleconnection, yes it is a major one but dont base everything off of it
  13. Eric
    Eric
    @ Jacob
    Exactly, plus we will be beginning to close in on March as the MJO enters octant 4, and if you look at my previous post where I show the FMA temperature composite for the MJO, octant 4 is nowhere near as warm as it was towards the DJF composite.
  14. Eric
    Eric
    @ Rod Houston
    I don’t know what “models” you’re looking at, but that storm is still there, just in a different form now on the models, with some a little farther east, others having the trough phasing occur later, thus the storm does not strengthen until later as it nears Canada, but do not base everything off of the models, the only reason why I was concerned earlier because for a few days in a row, ALL models had a major storm in the central and eastern US.
    ECMWF still has the storm there, just doesn’t phase until later, and of course we know that the ECMWF likes to hang energy back too long in the southwestern US, thus may be slowing the rate at which the phasing occurs, and it would not take much to get a storm to phase much quicker, meaning significantly different results in the eastern and central US.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
    GFS somewhat similar to the ECMWF with phasing later, however, as I said before it will not take much to get a faster phasing event, as long as the energy in the subtropical jet outruns or gets ahead of the northern branch energy allowing for a complete phase and a negatively titled trough, and since this potential system is still over the Pacific, where there’s limited data input into the models, precise solutions at this point can not be taken seriously. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html
    CMC like GFS and ECMWF later phasing, however considering that this is still a week away not smart at all to say there will be no storm, because with a deep trough like that with polar vortex connection, energy in the southern branch, with the effects of the upward MJO still in place, still potential for this to occur. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/cmcloop.html
    NOGAPS also still showing the potential for a storm with a large trough into the eastern US, regardless of the models or the severity of a storm, there will be a big push of arctic air around this time, thus winter is not over yet. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html
  15. Eric
    Eric
    @ Wasi
    Focusing one particular factor as Jacob said above is not smart, and what you have to realize is that just because the MJO goes into a favorable or unfavorable octant does mean the pattern will respond right away, in fact patterns do not turn on a dime like that, there’s always a progression of the pattern and a period of transition, plus we will be nearing march by that time, and octant 4 is not overwhelmingly warm according to the FMA MJO temperature composite, plus if the 30 day sunspot cycles stay low enforcing a +PNA, there will definitely be significant resistance against warming promoted by the MJO
    (DJF MJO temp composite)http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/MJO-DJF-temp-composite-.png
    (FMA MJO temp composite) http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/MJO-temp-precip-FMA.png
  16. Armando
    Hey Eric so I see people are starting to panic about winter’s end lol! So now my question follows up this topic is when do you think winter will defiantly end? Joe B did mention by early to mid march should be the end which makes sense and also when will the MJO reach phase 4? Could it still be snowy for east or do you think we could still get some snow in early march? Well I don’t want to jump to that conclusion, so I see new england weather works did post about that storm around the 17th and their will be blocking plus that monster trough is crazy! I believe we will defiantly be in for it so im looking forward to the updates! Anyway what you still thinking on that storm? Thanks Eric
  17. biggamefisherman1000
    @ Matthew or Eric

    I think NC will get a mixed/rain event. Diffidently not 12+.

    @bloggers

    If you want to forecast on my website, give me your email commenting on my website ( the link will lead you to the open spots page).

    Link: http://biggamefisherman1000.blogspot.com/2013/02/anyone-want-to-forecast-on-this-blog.html

  18. biggamefisherman1000
    I’m in Central NJ.
  19. Wasi
    @Eric
    did you mean to say that it doesn’t respond right away or does respond right away.
  20. Wasi
    and how long does it take to respond change the pattern
  21. Mike D
    Wasi, he meant it doesn’t respond right away.
  22. Mike D
    Armando, if you go to weather.gov for the MJO forecasts, it shows the MJO entering phase 4 in about a week, so the pattern will change in about 10 days. Notice how by the end of the 16 day forecast, it races the MJO all the way into phase 7, and thus within 20 days of now there will be a monster trough with snow, a warmup for a week, yet the pattern will once again resort back to cold and possibly stormy in early March before snapping like JB said. This is very exciting to see, as the GEFS always underestimates everything. Also, the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, and DGEX all have storms on Sunday. Remember, we are actually in a better setup now than we were on Friday with the major storm, so its something to closely monitor as it moves onto the west coast. However, no models will know what’s going to happen, because the GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET will be out to sea or to progressive, which leaves the EC – It will leave the energy behind. So until Wednesday or Thursday, we won’t know whats going on.
  23. Eric
    Eric
    @ Armando
    I agree with Joe Bastardi on that, and it looks like the MJO will be reaching octant 4 in about 10 days however, as I mentioned before the pattern does not immediately respond to such conditions, and plus if we continue to see the low 30 day sunspot cycles enforcing a +PNA regime, then this will help to fight against the warmth being enforced by a less favorable MJO, plus in 10 days or so, we will be getting towards late February, and as we get into March, if you look at my post from February 7th where I talk about the MJO composite temperatures for FMA (February-March-April) nowhere near as warm as they are in DJF, thus we may see winter try and hang on, especially for areas farther to the north and west, but definitely looks like after February 20th, at least for areas farther to the south and east, winter may be over, but for the northeast even, the midwest, the Rockies and the western US there still may be winter to be had, but if we see the unfavorable MJO get pushed against the 30 day sunspot cycles, not to mention that we have a very strong snowpack in the northern hemisphere enforcing cold air to the north stacked against a SE ridge and warmth beginning to fight against the cold, the severe weather season is likely to get going in full force especially over Dixie and Carolina alley. The system for the 17th is just one to watch for now, and I will keep an eye on it the next several days, but with such a large trough in the east with favorable conditions in place need to closely monitor this system for the potential for a major winter storm, details are way too early to contemplate at this time.
  24. Eric
    Eric
    @ Mike D
    Thank you for your insight, I agree with what you’re saying, also want to mention the strong tornado that just moved through Hattiesburg, MS, just a little while ago
  25. Armando
    So wait you guys are saying the MJO won’t stall in phase 3 and go through the cycle one more time then early to mid march it snaps? I understand some of that but if it goes through the rest of the phases then its going to be real warm then back to cold? Joe b said 2 more weeks of “fun” then not sure what happens after that! Well i hate to say this but i’m upset its almost mid feb lol, but still got the rest of the month to go then maybe some of march. Also this 17th storm is getting me real excited haha!
  26. Rod Houston
    I am really concerned.The long range ECMF model has the MJO going to a 5 which favors warmth. We really need a storm on the 17th of February or we are done. Is there a chance if there is a storm on the 17 that it cuts up the great Lakes and give Chicago a lot of snow?
  27. Tim Johnson
    Eric are you sure that you see a storm on the 17th? The GFS isn’t as deep with the trough as it did earlier.Its trending warmer and due to to the rise of sun light active it’s going to very hard to get snow in central NC.If there be a storm who could get hit with snow?
  28. AutoFill Rob
    Hey…does anyone know what happened to new England weather works? Did they go private or change there page? And Eric what’s up? Hope all is well…I’m excited about the weekend storm you talked about yesterday… is it still possible??
  29. Armando
    Ok good rob i’m not the only one who thinks they went private or something! Everytime i click on their site it takes me to my facebook page??! Maybe they are doing something so i’ll keep checking it often today. Also the valentine’s day storm might hit us because models are starting to shift north such as GFS, NAM, and euro so look out for that one! Also weekend storm could be huge so as week progresses Eric will keep us updated!
  30. Mike D
    @ Armando and AutoFill Rob
    I have no idea what happened. When I try to go to either, it gives me a 403 error message. Looking better and better for snow in NNJ and NYC Wed. night! Look at the newest NAM run’s snowfall. It shows a swath of 6-10 inches form Lancaster, PA to Boston.
    AND…….Even the weather channel talked about a storm on Sunday! They said it “could accumulate possibly in inches with localized amounts of possibly over a foot”
  31. derickeugeneree
    wow i know its a model and long ways out but did anyone see that monster storm the gfs is showing for PA at hour 384?
  32. AutoFill Rob
    Ook thanks mike n Armando…I thought they had banned me or something lol…well just saw that storm for the weekend come up…all I’m saying is I’m intrigued!
  33. biggamefisherman1000
    @derickeugeneree

    I did. At least 24+ for all of NJ. It’s sometime next week. But you saw a third storm great. Good for snow.

  34. Eric
    Eric
    @ TIm Johnson
    Yes, I am confident in my forecast for the storm for the 17th, just staring at models, as I’ve warned before can get you into big trouble, and for reasons outlined in my post above which are still valid, I’m even considering the potential for one last chance for the southeastern US to get snow around the 17th-18th
  35. Maranda
    Will jacksonville nc get any snow from this storm?

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