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36 Responses
I do like how you put out summer maps, but I am going to say this, will be hard to get the plains to be cold and dry as you think with the cold PDO in place, and warm AMO in place, which favors warmer & drier conditions over the plains, east coast hurricanes (which would imply the threat of “warm and dry” near the east coast to be potentially overdone), and of course as I have begun to take note of in some of my research is the increase in late season tornado outbreaks in the 1950s, because many of those Marches, (especially March 1960 & 1956) were colder than normal all the way down to the Gulf Coast, which put a cap on the severe wx season until later, which is where I think this tornado season looks to be headed.
This map above would be a great summer forecast if we were in the 1960s pattern (but we aren’t there quite yet), which is where we will be headed over the next several years as the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) cools, and what I have taken note of is during the period of the cold AMO, PDO combination, Gulf of Mexico hurricane strikes become very violent like they were in the 1960s with Camille for example, and in the late 1890s-into the 1900s (1900 Galveston Hurricane) where the PDO & AMO were cold, which focused upward motion away from the deep tropics and towards areas like the Gulf of Mexico, which would make them actually wetter than normal (all good except the central Gulf in your forecast above) and in the 1960s, although there were still dry conditions over the plains, the heat lessened and spread eastward towards the east coast, which would support this summer forecast above, if we were in the 1960s pattern. However, I think we’re going to see like in the 1950s, drought and heat towards the plains, more east coast hurricane threats, late season tornado outbreaks, and a cold March (which is exactly what you’re seeing now).
Considering we are in a 1950s pattern, as we have been for the last several years, the hurricane threat is going to be abnormally high once again, of course you will need to pay very close attention to the blocking over eastern Canada and the Maritimes, as I have noted that the hurricane seasons with biggest landfalls have had a considerable high pressure area over this region. Also, I will have a new post out hopefully sometime this week explaining my ideas, as I have taken note that in a la nina pattern, hurricanes tend to move more north-south in nature near the east coast, like Hazel, the Long Island Express of 38, etc.., but it will be interesting to see where this year ends up, but if we do get a major storm on the east coast, it is a fact that a major hurricane on the east coast is usually followed by a la nina winter the following winter, and although this winter was not quite la nina, it was darn close at cold neutral, far from the el nino predictions earlier last fall and summer. I think we’ll just have to wait and see how things play out, but this season looks like it could be extremely active as the -NAO has forced the NE trade winds over the deep tropics to slow and a like blowing on a hot spoonful of soup for example, once that blowing motion stops, you generally notice the soup starts to heat up again, and thus a similar concept can be applied to the way the -NAO we have now is pumping the tropics with warmth. Also, many of the ENSO forecasts (although extremely unreliable at this time of the year) are leaning towards neutral conditions, and under a neutral ENSO, the number of named storms in the Atlantic is usually greatest, however, knowing we are in a cold PDO, I’m thinking this season may lean towards la nina, but if its neutral, that certainly does not bode well for the US. I am going to need more time to come up with some ideas for the upcoming season, but if I currently had to pick any year to analog for this hurricane season based off of ENSO neutral conditions and the 1950s, cold PDO warm AMO pattern, I would have to go with 1952 and 1960, both of which featured one long-tracking cape verde hurricane (1952 hurricane Able which struck SC and went up the east coast) and 1960′s Hurricane Donna) which went up the east coast and directly affected areas from Florida to Atlantic Canada.
My answer to your question is that I can’t say for your particular area, but in a general sense for the US east coast, they should definitely be aware that the pattern is unusually favorable for east coast hurricanes, and will remain so for the next several years like it was in 1950s and in the 1890s, and this will continue until the AMO cools. When the AMO cools, the droughts should lessen over the plains, tornadoes as a whole over the US should increase, east coast snowstorms were very prominent in the 1960s, summers will likely get hotter and drier for the east coast, and the focus of hurricane activity is likely to shift into the Gulf of Mexico like it did in the 1900s and the 1960s, when the AMO & PDO went into their cold states.
You all have got to check this video out, from Levi Cowan, (my personal favorite when it comes to hurricane forecasting) with his ideas on this upcoming hurricane season, I should have mine out hopefully by this week as well. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=583
Link: http://biggamefisherman1000.wordpress.com/
Oh, it is easily the biggest one I’ve ever made, and I’m not even done yet, lol, you are going to learn so much (as I have in making the post), and as of right now, it is easily the best one I’ve ever made to top of its insurmountable size. For me, things are going great, for the past few weeks, any spare time I have had I put it towards making this gigantic post, for perspective my last post, which was large by my standards was about 10,000 words, this one I have coming (I’m not even close to done yet) is at 22,000 words and counting. Plus, I have a lot of cool videos in it to watch, and as far as the storm for the northeast, I think I mentioned a potential analog storm several days ago in response to Wasi about the March 28-30 1983 major snowstorm for the mid-atlantic and northeast, which dumped 1-2 feet of snow in Washington DC & Baltimore, with nice snowfall totals up towards Philadelphia and into New Jersey. I think something similar may transpire next week, and interestingly enough, many of the odels show snow into the plains all the way down to I-40 in OK & AR, which may seem unusual, but it did happen in the winter of 2009-10 in late March, so I think if you go with a blend of these two storm systems, I think you can get a general picture of where my thoughts currently are for this next major storm system (after the upcoming storm this week). We’ll also have to consider though that it is March after all, and with strong wavelengths this time of the year, with the equivalent amount of solar energy as seen in mid-late September, it will certainly be at least somewhat of challenge to get snow to accumulate. However, considering that the AO & NAO are absolutely off of the charts, the MJO is now coming towards the Atlantic now in octant 8, which will eventually help to active the subtropical branch of the jet stream in our part of the world, and with an unfavorable -PNA due to a sudden rise in the 30 day sunspot cycles recently, the pattern is overall supportive, but in saying this, I do think spring will arrive sooner or later, and by mid April I think as we begin to see the strengthening solar wavelengths strong enough to the point where the subtropical ridge that has been poking up from time to time over the eastern US bringing a “taste of spring: every once in a while, will be able to “hook” over the top with the powerful Greenland block, and will likely put an end to winter, but we may have a rough road to get there as the ECMWF control and its ensembles agree for a very wild start to April with temperatures widespread 10-15 below normal over much of the US east of the Rockies, with a few regions closer to 25-30 below normal centered towards the plains and perhaps into the upper midwest.
It looks like you could get some snow with the storm coming this week, although most of it will be along and west of the mountains, but I am trying to come up with a solid idea on that storm next week, although I do think it could end up being a decent snowstorm for somewhere in the mid-atlantic and northeast, with references to the March 28-30 1983 snowstorm and the southern Plains snow in late March of the winter of 2009-10 and I think a blend of those storms at this time sounds quite reasonable. However, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty still lurking at this time, thus I am not 100% sold yet on a snowstorm in this area, but given the pattern, which is going to become slightly more favorable despite the unfavorable 30 day sunspot cycles & PNA (MJO is coming to the Atlantic to amplify the subtropical jet stream, which would bring a more favorable environment for larger storms and major phasing events), I am definitely starting to consider this a fairly legitimate possibility at this point.
I don’t know if you guys saw the link to the video I posted above to the hurricane season, but it is truly a must watch, as I learned so much from watching Levi Cowan. Now, here’s something I said on his blog that might really capture your attention, and certainly raises my concerns for the upcoming hurricane season and is a testament to just how vital the 30 day sunspot cycle-PNA relationship is, even into the hurricane season. “Thanks so much Levi, very good analysis and video. Now, with the years you’ve mentioned which dealt with the trough and ridging pattern over the northern Pacific and North America as a whole (which would tell me to pay attention to the PNA) in which their was an increase in the number of hurricane landfalls on the US, I have taken this a step further in that, I compared those years to the sunspot cycles. I did this because I have noticed a very interesting inverse correlation relationship to the PNA & the sunspot cycles, even over short scales of time, and have found the 30 day sunspot cycle to be very useful in predicting the overall state of the PNA. When I looked at the years mentioned like 1953, 1954, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1971, 1979, 1985, 1989, 2004, 2005, and 2008 I noticed something very interesting about all of those years, in exception to 1979. In that, those years occurred near the peaks and the minimums of the normal 11-year solar cycle (22 years accounting for magnetic field changes), which is extremely interesting and may in fact hold the key to determining this pattern over the north Pacific and North America as you were talking about, and considering that this year we are currently near the peak of the solar cycle suggests to me that this hurricane season may very well follow suit of those mentioned years given also the overall state of the PDO, AMO, and the fact that the US, especially the east coast is overdue for a major hurricane. I am actually somewhat surprised by the lack of activity, probably as you are in the aspect that this pattern is very similar to the 1950s, yet there have yet to be any major hurricanes on the US east coast, while in the 1950s, there 8 major hurricane on the east coast, with the other major storm being Hurricane Audrey of 1957 in the gulf.”
I think I got the years mixed up, thanks for helping me correct this, it was actually 1984 because that same storm system also spawned an historic outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes over North Carolina, only rivaled by the April 16 2011 outbreak, and of course there was also the ‘Palm Sunday” snowstorm of 1942, and the March 27-28 snowstorm of 1891 which gave Washington DC a lot of snow. 12 inches of snow in the 1891 storm, which makes it the 14th biggest snowstorm on record in Washington DC, and the Palm Sunday snowstorm of 1942 gave Washington DC 11.5 inches of snow, tied for 15th greatest all-time in Washington DC. In Baltimore the 1942 Palm Sunday snowstorm dumped an unbelievable 22 inches of snow March 29-30 1942 and is their 5th biggest snowstorm of all-time. Another notable storm in March was the 1892 storm in the mid-Atlantic which dumped 16 inches of snow in Baltimore, making it their 8th biggest snowstorm on record. Here’s where I got this information from, and although I don’t have snow maps of these events, I will do my best to look for them, (they are hard to find)
Here’s the site I was getting my information from, now although it only goes to 2003 and does not include some of the monster storms of the 2009-10 & 2010-11 winter, is very interesting to look at, and may perhaps be an area of interest and research for you to look into these storms, since you seem to like snow so much, like me and many other bloggers here.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/snohist.htm
Oh, it gets even more astonishing the trend between US hurricane landfalls and the minimum and maximum of solar cycles, perhaps I have just made an amazing discovery that unlocks the key to a potential secret that may be an underlying reason for sudden increase in US hurricane landfalls. Here’s what I said on Levi Cowan’s blog at tropicaltidbits (if you haven’t seen his hurricane forecast video suggest you to see it) showing even more evidence for this going all the way back to the 1930s.
Wow, I never used to think the sunspot cycles were this important, but I may start to worship them from now on, lol.
“This sunspot cycle theory also works in the 1930s, with the solar minimum between solar cycles 16 & 17 having 1933 in the middle, and of course in that season 3 major hurricane struck the US coast. 1934 & 1935 were also both years near that same minimum, and the barrage of hurricanes continued on the US coast including Labor Day in 1935. The solar peak of cycle 17 around 1938 featured the Long Island Express and Hurricane 3 hitting the US coast. It does not stop there, the next region of solar maximum and minimum was towards 1944, which had yet another barrage of hurricanes on the US coast, with 3 hurricanes hitting the US in that season, along with the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944. It only continues from here with the next solar peak or minimum towards the period of 1947-1950 and during that period of the cooling (not yet cold) PDO and warm AMO, reminiscent of the hurricane landfall pattern of the 2000s, another batch of intense hurricanes struck the US coast, especially towards Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, with 5 major hurricanes in just 3 years striking the US coast, including Hurricanes King and Easy in 1950. Then, by 1953-55 at the next solar peak and minimum, there was yet another period of extreme landfall activity on the US coast, with storms like Connie, Diane, Ione, Hazel, Carol, and Edna. Just extremely interesting to see this correlation seeming to show itself in just about every instance going back to the 1930s. If it wasn’t for you talking about the pattern over the north Pacific getting me into the mindset of the PNA, would have never thought of this. Extremely hard to ignore such a glaring trend in hurricane activity on the US coast in relation to the peaks and minimums of the solar cycle.”
I’ll make mention of this in my new post so you can see for yourself, which is now approaching 24,000 words, lol.
Yeah, he’s extremely good, and he will be doing videos during the hurricane season as well, which I will post links to when they come out, but for some reason, he does not seem to understand what I am trying to hint at in relation to the sunspot cycles and US hurricane landfalls (posted in his comments underneath his video) I understand that there are exceptions in this overall trend like in 2000 & 2002, oh wait, that’s actually not the case with 2002 was a low year for hurricane hits with only Lili, but there were 6 tropical storms to make landfall in that year, which is quite high, but 2000 still was not extremely active for hurricane hits overall.
Now is not the time to give up on winter, at least just quite yet although it is looking more and more dismal with time, but I guess that’s how it goes sometimes. You are exactly right though on these people complaining about winter, because I had said all the way back in December (you can go look back at my post) I did say probably before any one else that the worst of winter was to come later, and that was mainly based off of the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly for October (also thanks to Andrew of weathercentre for picking up on this) which was well below normal early in the month and then spiked to even more above normal later and has seemed to nicely represent the winter for us thus far. I do think this upcoming storm on the ECMWF is too flat because it backloading energy towards the south-central Rockies, which it is known to do in essence “dragging its feet”, and as it should correct, you should see a stronger storm. Although there certainly are absolutely no guarantees for snow, this does look quite similar to March of 1984 and even to some extent April 6-7 1982, both of which were quite cold in March, resembling the Marches of the 1950s under the last cold PDO, warm AMO regime, although the April 6-7 snowstorm did not have snow into DC as most of it was north of the Mason-Dixon line, where as 1984 had a blasting blizzard into Washington DC & Baltimore, so there is certainly a lot of uncertainty in this situation and we’ll have to see how things play out the next few days. Good news is, besides the AO & NAO virtually off of the charts negative is the MJO coming back to the Atlantic, (currently now in octant 8) and as it moves our way, this will help to add energy into the subtropical jet stream and increase the chances for phasing of storm systems.
Thanks, and I do like the site that Mark put together, surprised he is so young and has such a strong passion for weather. Hopefully I can get my new absolutely gigantic post out this weekend, been working on it for about 3 weeks.
Link: http://biggamefisherman1000snowreporter.blogspot.com/2013/03/as-of-now-3813-annual-snowfall-oct-2012.html
Hello, I’m not not talking that area. I’m talking about DC and Baltimore regions and the suburbs of the city from maryland to virginia that did NOT get much snow that are still in snow drought. Stop criticizing me because I never mentioned new jersey. I live west of DC not new jersey. DC and Baltimore are the big cities of the 95 corridor. Did you read my comment correctly?
Sorry haven’t been able to answer comments and concerns as I am very busy doing my new post, which I have been working on for several weeks now, I hope to have it out by this weekend, but it will be well worth the wait and I will warn you it will be absolutely gigantic. I’m not even close to done yet and I’m already at about 30,000 words and counting (for perspective, about 3X the size of my last post, which was in its own right large, that should tell you something)
Dan