One thing i must point out with this summer is the NAO, after observing this for a few years, I have learned that once you get past March, the more negative the NAO is the Warmer it gets, the more positive it is the cooler it is. From what the NAO has done over the past several months it appears as if it will be hovering in the neutral to positive range for the remainder of the Spring, as we go into summer how will it fare though?
Well one thing i mentioned a few weeks back in why, severe weather seems to have gotten off to a slow start, is that this year so far has similarities to the year of 2005. Now Lets compare 2005 more closely to now.
Tornado Count By May 21st 2005 – 368 Tornado Count By May 21st 2013 – 336
And what i want to mention here is that both seasons the Tornado count went up about at the same time and just took off from there. 2005 was the second least productive tornado count year over the past 12 years so far and as it appears 2013 will remain along the lines of that pattern.
The Wind reports for this year are actually more than there were in 2005 but not by too much.
Point being we will be using the year 2005 as an analog year to try to compare what this summer & hurricane season will be like. Now granted in 2005 we were in a weak el-nino phase at the begining of the year and it went to a la nina after February of 2005, and currently we are stuck in a nueatral phase. However models indicate, that we may be headed to a very weak el-nino, so keep that in mind.
Atlantic Hurricane season Outlook:
Right now, since we are transitioning out of a neutral year or a very weak la nina year if you want to be technical about it, im thinking that the conditions surrounding that will still persist. And typically during a hurricane season there are usually 10 named storms and 5 become hurricanes. I am expecting an above average year and this time not only the gulf states are under the gun.
Right now when you look at the Carribian sea you see warm juicy water temperatures, around 80 degrees which is very ample for hurricane development, but elsewhere temperatures are in the mid to upper 70’s, which are not extremely favorable for hurricane development, but you cant rule it out. In all actuality temperatures are bellow average in the Western Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico. So what does that mean? I am expecting a slow start to the season, maybe one or two storms in the month of June, and things really wont amp up until we head into the month of July and August with the peak being Late August. Really that’s around the typical peak period.
Now lets move onto summer. Most of you have realized that we have had a much colder and in some areas snowier than average spring than average as old man winter made its presence know late in the season and hung on, giving chilly weather to several areas in the lower 48 states into the first half of May.
Right now here is my outlook for the Summer of 2013. Now I am comparing this summer to the one of 2005. Which had a top 25 month in terms of heat in the Month of August of 2005. It was also wetter than average in 2005, ranking the 17th wettest in the last 111yrs and when you look at the precipitation ranking it is looking more and more likely that, that seems to be following the same trend again. With several areas being 100% over the average in the eastern half of the united states. So here is my outlook, while looking at the data from this year and also from 2005 as an analog.
For The Astrick in the Northeast. I expect you guys to have Cool Periods, but overall slightly warmer than average. You will see (as you have already this spring) periods of really comfortable and bellow average temperatures (70’s and lower 80’s) but you will also see temperatures at times be above average as well. You will have stretches of both. Severe weather wise I expect it to be bellow the 12yr average (2000-2012) but expect it to be close to around 2005’s level.
So there you have it my 2013 hurricane season outlook and my 2013 Summer outlook 2013. I will try to answer questions when i can. Take care everyone and have a safe summer.