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Jun 01 2013

Dante' Brown-Royal

New Weather Advisory To Be Created By weatheradvance.com

During the winter, typically the National Weather Service issues Watches warnings and advisory’s. That will be the same again this year. So What are we talking about? Well weatheradvance.com is creating its own advisory, (not nationally accredited) but will be used For weatheradvance.com site only. This advisory is ¬†due to at times, the national weather service may wait too long or underestimate the amount of snow that will fall and either decide not to release a watch warning or advisory or issue it much later than it should.

This Advisory Will be called a “Winter Weather Watch” And if its upgraded it will be called a “Winter Weather Warning”. Bellow is what a winter weather watch will look like on the website. A warning will be in dark blue. We will continue to look for other ways to upgrade our winter weather coverage. any suggestions leave them in the comment section bellow. Take care guys!

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New Advisory Criteria:

Winter Weather Watch- winter weather is possible within the next 72 hours. amounting to either .25″ of ice or inch or more of snow. Travel problems are possible, as well as school delays or closures.

Winter Weather Warning- Winter Weather is imminent within the next 36 hours, school delays or closings are likely, and travel problems are likely, whether minor or major.

Advisory’s,and warnings can be issued by, myself (Dante’) Jason, or Eric.

About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

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  1. Eric
    Eric

    @ Dante
    This is a good idea, I think it would give a better idea on what you think is going to happen and may offer as a great test for forecasting techniques, I do wonder though what could possibly be done about hurricane season prediction though, because if you do happen to have any ideas at all, I would like to implement them this year. I would think doing like the National Hurricane Center and issuing circles for potential for development in certain areas, or perhaps you have something else in mind?

  2. Dante' Brown-Royal
    Dante' Brown-Royal

    @Eric,

    Thank you, Doing something like the national weather service does, is definitely a good idea. We could implement something like that. How exactly did you think we should integrate something like that? im open to any suggestions. I’ll definitely think of other ideas as well.

  3. Eric
    Eric

    You’re welcome, honestly this is a VERY GOOD idea to suggest what you are doing in the post above, very nice. My thinking is we implement circles for development (and I’ve actually heard that the NHC is considering this idea as well) for development up to 5 days, perhaps even a week into advance and issue circles for development potential like near 0-less than 30% being low (yellow), 30-60% being orange, anything greater than 60% in a shade of red, and I would also like to implement circles over certain areas that I think development would be possible, like for instance in the Caribbean, where we could honestly see the development coming from “a mile away” per say with the upward MJO pulse and model support out well in advance, well since we are several days out for development to occur, we could put a large yellow circle over the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico denoting potential development and write a description of the storm, its environment, movement, and any trends we see. Plus, I would like to put circles onto African waves, as earlier detection may be important in tropical forecasts, plus with the MJO and Indian Monsoon circulation and knowing its trends and predictability, we could even be able to forecast the amount of amount of tropical wave activity and disturbances over the African continent well in advance, because this is important given that about 90% of all Atlantic hurricanes and major hurricanes are at some point spawned from these African easterly waves. Just some thoughts, and plus we could easily make our own cones of uncertainty, (not just based on the actual center of circulation, but the broad area in which the storm’s effects could be felt) and we would be able to put certain intensities on such storms at certain time intervals.

    These are some of my ideas, does this help at all to what you’re possibly considering?

  4. Derickeugeneree

    Eric do you think my area will get any hurricanes at all or do you think just tropical storms if my area gets affected?

  5. Eric

    @Derickeugeneree
    I know what you’re talking about but it is honestly not wise at all nor do I see any viable point at this time to try and predict whether your area will get hurricanes OR tropical storms because of simply all of the factors that not only go into hurricane intensity over water but over land. Think about it, in order to predict for a precise location whether a tropical storm or hurricane will hit several hundred miles inland, you have to know landfall intensity, whether or not eyewall replacement cycles are occurring, storm size and minimum central pressure in relation to maximum sustained winds that helps to determine rate of weakening, forward progression of the tropical disturbance in terms of speed and direction of movement, local topography that determines the friction of the land against the winds aloft, and time of day never hurts as afternoon heating can enhance thunderstorm activity that can help lower pressures of the storm, at least temporarily, and you have to know the shape, direction, and placement of ridges and troughs that steer tropical cyclones, amon other affects. In general, given the fact that you take all of these factors into account, there is no point or no accuracy involved in predicting precise storm intensities for certain locations, until an actual storm forms and an accurate assessment of the conditions at hand has been made. This beig said, given my thoughts for neutral ENSO and the fact that we are in a period of cold PDO and warm AMO, this does not change my thoughts for your area and the eastern US in general, that I’ve had since March 24th for an active year for tropical cyclone landfalls.

  6. Derickeugeneree

    Ok I understand what your talking about. Time will tell. Sorry for asking a question like that before a systerm forms.

  7. Dante' Brown-Royal
    Dante' Brown-Royal

    @eric,
    I’m not too familia I’m not too familiar with factor of how to tell when storms are going to develop coming off of Africa while I can tell when one is likely to based on how it is how to storm development looks after this coming from all the coast the African goes on but I think that that’s a very good idea and I will look into ways so we can implement that starting this hurricane season I’ll try to write a post if not today or tomorrow about how we can implement this.

  8. Derickeugeneree

    That’s a good idea.

  9. Derickeugeneree

    Wow the gfs is all over the place with this potential depression or storm that might form in the coming days

  10. midatlanticweather
    midatlanticweather

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  11. Eric
    Eric

    @Derickeugeneree and other bloggers
    No, it wasn’t a dumb question, I appreciate the fact that you ask, because honestly it is even the simplest questions like that from bloggers like you that actually help spark ideas in my head and get me going and make me come to certain realizations that force me to research new aspects about the weather or really help me “test’ my weather knowledge, so keep the questions and concerns coming, I’m more than happy to answer them.

    As far as the GFS being over all the place with this potential tropical disturbance, this is to be expected given the fact that origins of this tropical system will be monsoonal in nature, in which the storm itself will be sparked from a very large region of generally low pressure and thunderstorms that are associated with the upward MJO pulse and due also in part to the center of a “downwelling” kelvin wave centered over the eastern Pacific where there are cooler than normal waters currently residing just to the west of the coast of South America, and you can thank this to the fact that the MJO has not entered the western Pacific for quite some time. In doing so, this has forced higher than normal pressures over this region, which supports sunnier skies and more tranquil conditions, allowing for increased amounts of solar radiation to penetrate into the west Pacific. This leaves the waters over the western Pacific, at least in relation to the rest of the globe significantly warmer than normal, thus one would think that upward motion would be focused over that region courtesy of upward MJO pulse right? No, this is not the case, because actually what is occurring in this case is the warmer than normal waters and associated upward motion that is being produced over the western Pacific is actually diffused into the Indian Monsoon circulation, thus all of that energy is actually going into the Indian Ocean and southeast Asia, where due to an overturning circulation in this region with ties to the Atlantic, allows for upward motion to be focused in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean basins, as opposed to the western Pacific, despite that region having warmer than normal water temperatures. This is a good reason why along with the +NAO that is inducing higher than normal trade winds that are helping to stir up the waters in the MDR, as to why the deep tropical Atlantic is not as overwhelmingly warm as what was observed back in March.
    Going back to the tropical disturbance, the reason why models are struggling is simply because there is such a large region of generally low pressures and thunderstorms going off in the eastern Pacific, central America, southern Gulf of Mexico, and the NW Caribbean that models have trouble pinpointing one specific area of vorticity, low pressures, etc, that lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. Sometimes, even though a model may be picking up on a tropical disturbance, it may not be as aggressive, because the monsoon circulation in events like what is being observed now, can “overshadow” any tropical system and lead to large model errors. This has certainly be a reoccurring theme over the last month or so with several tropical systems, like the twin Indian Ocean cyclones, and of course Hurricane Barbara on some of the computer models, was virtually non-existant even despite the storm already formed and well organized with low pressures well below 1000mb, suggesting that the large and relative region of low pressures over such a large area is causing major problems in the models trying to spin-up specific tropical cyclones, and this is something that needs to be considered with this upcoming tropical system, thus now is not a good time to be model watching, and I think a lot of people understand now where I’m coming from.

    Once this storm system forms, in whatever form it may come in, be it a tropical depression, tropical storm, or possibly even a hurricane, there will be a few characteristics that will make it unique, of course one being the size of the system, because given its monsoonal nature, much like most tropical cyclones that form over the western Pacific, it will be large because the complex of thunderstorms and low pressures and thunderstorms that spawned such a storm was in of itself also large, at least in comparison to the African easterly waves, which are naturally smaller in general. Also, I have taken note of the fact that the models have backed off somewhat on the system being lopsided, and this may be attributed to the fact that the storm now is forecasted to head towards the southeast coast of the US and the extreme eastern Gulf as opposed to the central Gulf, where dry air issues from the desert and natural subsidence coming off of Mexico (due also in part to a retreating upward MJO pulse, forcing pressures in that area to rise and this begins to dry the air out)., force dry air into the western side of the circulation, making the storm asymmetrical and weighted heavily on its eastern side, much like Tropical Storm Arlene in 2005 which is somewhat analogous to the current pattern, and is interesting also given the fact that 2005 is also one of the analog years being discussed for this year. In addition, I made earlier comment on the fact that there seems to be a correlation between storms that from in the deep Caribbean in June and move north to affect the eastern US and the cycles of PDO & AMO, in the aspect that such storms seem to occur at the transition periods of the oceanic cycles, which is supported by the storms that formed before the major cold PDO flip in 2008, the storms in 1994 & 1995 around the time of the warm AMO flip and the barrage of systems that formed in the deep tropics and affected the eastern US in the month of June during the 1960s, thanks in part to multiple flips in the AMO cycle from warm to cold.

  12. Eric
    Eric

    @ Dante
    Well, I have a few tricks up my sleeve, per say, I did begin to physically track these tropical waves and analyze their characteristics last year when I first joined this website, and I’ve been learning about these systems for several years so it will be interesting to see how this goes this year, and I will be looking forward to what you have to say in your next post regarding this matter.

  13. Dante' Brown-Royal
    Dante' Brown-Royal

    @Eric,

    The post is up on the site. I just decided to include the new measures in the weather safe article.

  14. Eric
    Eric

    @ Dante
    Thanks for the heads up, I don’t know if there are any other possible ideas we could come up with while we’re at it, but this new idea for this upcoming hurricane season, and the one you came up with for instituting your own ideas for specific counties for winter storms is very smart.

  1. Euro & GFS Close on Storm Next Weds Thurs, Winter Weather Watches Maybe? » Weather Advance Storm Center

    […] We are currently watching a system which may bring major snow over the eastern half of the nation. The 00Z Euro has a all out massive snowstorm (above) with areas receiving a good 12″+ of Snow From Richmond, to DC, To Phily, to NYC. Now this is one run, but other runs of the GFS and Degx model have supported this same or similar track in prior runs. Im not saying this is going to happen but it bears watching. If we still have the same storm come Sunday night-Monday on the models, we will issue Winter Weather Watches. Remember that is something new we were working on bringing for this winter. For a refresher click here. […]

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