Weather Safe: Be Prepared For, and During Hurricane Season, new features to help you stay safe

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

6 comments on “Weather Safe: Be Prepared For, and During Hurricane Season, new features to help you stay safe

  1. that track may be a sign of things to come along the east coast this hurricane season I might be wrong but that’s what I think.
  2. why does the Canadian model has a full blown tropical storm going into the central appalatian mountains when its saying it will be over land all the way down to the gulf coast of florida to PA?
  3. @ Dante
    Thanks for the post, I greatly appreciate it, I will try to though implement satellite overlay into these areas denoted as “regions of concern” in the tropics or over the African continent, and I think it will also be a good idea to give a detailed description of each individual system, like for instance its location, forward movement, environmental conditions surrounding the storm and even if it is near landmasses, areas that could be impacted. I’m thinking along the lines of something like this for example let’s take the disturbance in the NW Caribbean at the moment
    “An area of disturbed weather currently located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of hurricane Barbara and a tropical wave near 85-90 west. Latest satellite imagery reveals the the disturbance is becoming more organized and notable spin is observed on visible satellite which is associated with a weak-mid level circulation developing over the Yucatan Peninsula, however, surface observations and lower level analysis of the atmosphere reveals little in the way of surface center organization, suggesting the system is still disorganized and is far from being classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm. Despite this, surface pressures in the region are lowering, with minimum central pressures approaching 1010 millibars. Wind shear over the tropical system is relaxing, to now marginal levels at 15-25 knots as an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico begins to weaken and retreat northward. This is allowing favorable upper-level high pressure to develop over the region and to promote lower shear values due to the release of latent heat that continues to fuel this upper level high with continued thunderstorm activity. Given recent trends in organization, and an increasingly favorable environment ahead, further organization of the system is expected over the next few days as it moves slowly to the northwest at around 5 knots in the general direction of the Florida, the Florida Keys, & the southeastern US. This system has a low chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, around 20 PERCENT. Regardless, heavy rains will continue over central America, the northwestern Caribbean, and spread northeastward into Florida later this week, with the potential for several inches to a foot of rain in isolated areas that may lead to flash flooding, thus all persons should remain alert of the developing situation and changing weather conditions over the next few days. The next tropical update on this system will be issued tomorrow morning, unless conditions warrant otherwise.”
  4. @derickeuegeneree
    Interesting you should be saying that the CMC does this, because in case you don’t know, the CMC has a clear and very evident bias to overestimate storm intensity and blow-up virtually non-existant tropical cyclones, however, a recent upgrade to the model was supposed to correct these biases, and although it does seem to have helped, the model still struggles with storm intensity, which greatly affects storm track. Now, I do actually think it is interesting the CMC keeps up the intensity of this tropical disturbance very far inland, and I think this won’t weaken considerably given some of the conditions at hand, although if this storm goes into the Appalachians, (which I think is a bit too far west) the friction of the land will greatly weaken the winds aloft and will severely disrupt any surface circulation. However, knowing that this storm is monsoonal in its origin, this means that whatever storm develops will be quite large, and it is known that when dealing with tropical cyclones, larger disturbances, given the exact same conditions as a smaller storm, will weaken much more slowly and aren’t as adversely affected by an unfavorable surrounding environment, thus this storm will be large and will be slow to wind down (much Sandy & Irene which were large systems, although this storm will be nowhere near as strong). Also, when you consider that this storm will be weak to begin with, even if this goes over the relatively flat and swampy land of southern Florida, the friction of the land acting against the winds aloft will be weak, and considering that the environment in front of the storm will be very moist and a favorable poleward outflow channel will be establish with a trough to the north, this storm system actually may INTENSIFY over land despite not being over warm, tropical ocean water, somewhat reminiscent of Tropical Storm Allison, Tropical Storm Fay (2008), which scared many in southern Florida as it developed an eye-like feature while passing near Lake Okeechobee. This will be an interesting storm to track, but the key things to look for will be a large, and lopsided (asymmetrical) storm system due to some westerly wind shear and impinging dry air from the Gulf of Mexico, heavy rains, especially east of the storm, and potentially gusty winds at times, especially for areas closer to the coast. It actually is interesting to see the potential tracks of this storm system, because it reminds me a lot of the tracks of hurricanes Donna & Charley as they went over the eastern US, and what is also intriguing is both of those storms are in my analog years (1960, 1969, 1979, 2004, and 2010) for the upcoming hurricane season that I released all the way back in March, amazing to see these ideas actually beginning to verify, and as you mentioned, this very well could be a sign of things to come, although come August and September conditions will be much more favorable and supportive for tropical cyclone development.
  5. @ all bloggers
    Also, I highly recommend the bloggers here to see, in case they haven’t the 28storms.com hurricane season. I will say it is interesting they use some of the same factors I used to predict this hurricane season back in March, and 3 of their “analog” years 1960, 1979, and 2004, are also in my top 5 hurricane season analogs for this year!! It is cool to see others catching onto some of my ideas that I released several months ago.

    (link) http://28storms.com/longrange/2013-hurricane-season/

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