Weather Safe: Be Prepared For, and During Hurricane Season, new features to help you stay safe

weather safe hurricanes

The Official start to hurricane season is June 1st 2013. And over the past 10-12 years we have seen several hurricanes that have devastated the United States. Such as Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Isabel, Floyd, and most recently Sandy. These storms have cost hundreds of people there lives, as well as cost millions of dollars in damage not only to coastal regions, but inland areas that are effected by the storm as it moves inland as these often become tornado outbreak machines. So now it is the perfect time, while it is quiet in the Atlantic and pacific to discuss what we should do to be prepared for this hurricane season and, its effects on the coast and as well as inland.

Like with tornadoes we have to understand a little about the classifications of hurricanes, and the way the National Hurricane Center keeps us informed from the very beginning to a possible storm’s development. First lets review the scale that hurricanes are put on. The Saffir-Simpson Scale. (please note, anything from 40mph winds to 73mph winds is a tropical storm, and anything from 30mph winds to 39mph winds is a tropical depression)

Category Sustained Winds Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1 74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2 96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Now considering the scale, you must consider that if you live right along the coast for a category one hurricane and two hurricanes, serious consideration should be given to evacuating a little further inland. Storm surge is a factor that those right along the coast should be firmly aware of. As you get to a category 3 hurricane, you must now leave or evacuate, this is something you also must plan in advance for. Have a plan of action well in advance to the storm. Perhaps even a disaster preparedness kit that has non perishable food items and water in case you are trapped in a shelter, similar to what people dealing with Katrina had to deal with. But if at all possible for anything from category 3-5, hurricane it is crucial that you evacuate inland, perhaps even inland areas up to 100-200 miles inland may need to evacuate depending on the intensity of the storm. Hurricanes bring so much different types of weather. Tornadoes, Strong Winds, Flooding Rains, and Storm Surge. So you must consider, do i live in an area that floods easy? Am I close enough to an area that i might deal with storm surge. Tornadoes can happen anywhere within an hurricane but are more typical on the Eastern side of it. So we all must consider what side of the hurricane we are on. Typically, the flooding rain side, is the western side of the storm, while the eastern side, is usually the worst, with severe weather and the strongest winds.

It may be days before local, state or federal governments officials may reach you to help you. Therefore it is vital that you prepare now. Here are some things that you can do:

1.)Stay attuned to the National Hurricane Center for possible tropical development if you live anywhere along the gulf coast, or even the east coast, all the way up to Maine

2.)Have A weather radio, preferably one that does not require battery’s. And flash lights preferably ones that do not require batteries,

3.)Have disaster preparedness kits set and in place for you. which should include:

  • 4 bottles of drinkable water per individual.
  • Non perishable food items, such as canned string beans, salmon, corn, cereal, etc. Plus utensils for opening them
  • A First aid kit, for each individual.
  • Hand sanitize
  • Money set aside in case of such an emergency.

This is just a preliminary list, or a guide, to some things you should include in it. This disaster preparedness kit should be light enough for each individual to be able to carry there own, should be no larger than possibly a backpack.

4.)Let others know of you plans to evacuate or stay put and allow for a way to communicate as much as possible.

5.)When a Hurricane is imminent is not the time to put your plans together, by then it is too late, as you have less than 24 hours to execute a plan. It is VITAL that you have one in place early.

6.) If the local government issues a MANDATORY evacuation, please head the warning and evacuate, it helps keep first responders safe as well as you. Many who loose there lives or end up seriously injured are those who decide to “ride the storm out” thinking it wont be that bad. Folks remember Katrina, and Sandy.

7.) What if you have no place to go? Or cant afford to go? Often local governments will set up storm shelters that you can go to locally that will keep you safe from the storm. While things may not go smoothly (New Orleans super-dome) This is where your disaster preparedness kits come in. That would provide you with some food, and water to drink, as well as first aid kits for yourself in case any injury’s are sustained.

These are some practical suggestions that can help to keep you safe during a hurricane. So people please prepare now, as hurricane season currently is quiet. Tornado’s are also a strong possibility, during hurricanes. So for how to stay safe during a tornado, click on this sentence. However, as mentioned, hurricanes bring so much to the table in terms of destruction, flooding, from rain or storm surge. So going underground may not be an option as basements may be flooded. This is why, it is so important that if possible get out of the area, especially if a mandatory evacuation is called for. Make sure your houses water pump is working in advance, but due to possible power outages that may not even be an option. See people? These are all things you MUST consider MUCH BEFORE A HURRICANE, as rash decisions could result in more harm than good.

In order to help our readers/viewers here at weatheradvance.com be alert to possible hurricane development and paths well in advance, we are going to be starting something new for weatheadvance.com.

We will start using a Tropical Development Outlook. Where we will show where tropical development is likely in a certain area. Yellow will be for a 0-30% chance of development Orange 31-59% chance of development and for anything 60% chance or higher for a tropical system to develop will be in red. This will be used on Tropical waves that look possible for development. We will also post a map once or twice a week about where conditions are favorable in the Atlantic, gulf, or Caribbean for hurricane development. So even if there isn’t a tropical wave in that area, you wont be surprised if one does develop and if one moves into that area, you should expect it to develop. The final aspect that we will develop is our own sort of cone of effects. Areas that we expect to be effected by the storm. Similar to a cone of uncertainty. Bellow are some examples of how this will be implemented. Myself, Jason, Matthew, and Eric will be posting these. We hope that this helps for you to be aware of tropical systems development so that you can be better able to be “WEATHER SAFE“. But it is still vital that you start to prepare NOW for hurricane season if you have not already. Please guys, be “Prepared for and during hurricane season.”

*To Weather Advance Storm Team Members, The program used for these graphics is Microsoft PowerPoint 2003 version. I will send you a copy of the outlook maps, so that you can put them to use if not today, perhaps later in the week. 

Tropical Development Outlook

Tropical development outlook for favorable looking tropical waves that might develop within 72 hours +

For areas in the Atalntic, Carribiean or Gulf that look favorable for storms to develop and thrive in for over a 1-2 week period.

For areas in the Atalntic, Carribiean or Gulf that look favorable for storms to develop and thrive in for over a 1-2 week period.

 

This one is pretty self explanatory, the area we expect the storm to possibly effect.

This one is pretty self explanatory, the area we expect the storm to possibly effect.

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

6 comments on “Weather Safe: Be Prepared For, and During Hurricane Season, new features to help you stay safe

  1. that track may be a sign of things to come along the east coast this hurricane season I might be wrong but that’s what I think.
  2. why does the Canadian model has a full blown tropical storm going into the central appalatian mountains when its saying it will be over land all the way down to the gulf coast of florida to PA?
  3. @ Dante
    Thanks for the post, I greatly appreciate it, I will try to though implement satellite overlay into these areas denoted as “regions of concern” in the tropics or over the African continent, and I think it will also be a good idea to give a detailed description of each individual system, like for instance its location, forward movement, environmental conditions surrounding the storm and even if it is near landmasses, areas that could be impacted. I’m thinking along the lines of something like this for example let’s take the disturbance in the NW Caribbean at the moment
    “An area of disturbed weather currently located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of hurricane Barbara and a tropical wave near 85-90 west. Latest satellite imagery reveals the the disturbance is becoming more organized and notable spin is observed on visible satellite which is associated with a weak-mid level circulation developing over the Yucatan Peninsula, however, surface observations and lower level analysis of the atmosphere reveals little in the way of surface center organization, suggesting the system is still disorganized and is far from being classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm. Despite this, surface pressures in the region are lowering, with minimum central pressures approaching 1010 millibars. Wind shear over the tropical system is relaxing, to now marginal levels at 15-25 knots as an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico begins to weaken and retreat northward. This is allowing favorable upper-level high pressure to develop over the region and to promote lower shear values due to the release of latent heat that continues to fuel this upper level high with continued thunderstorm activity. Given recent trends in organization, and an increasingly favorable environment ahead, further organization of the system is expected over the next few days as it moves slowly to the northwest at around 5 knots in the general direction of the Florida, the Florida Keys, & the southeastern US. This system has a low chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, around 20 PERCENT. Regardless, heavy rains will continue over central America, the northwestern Caribbean, and spread northeastward into Florida later this week, with the potential for several inches to a foot of rain in isolated areas that may lead to flash flooding, thus all persons should remain alert of the developing situation and changing weather conditions over the next few days. The next tropical update on this system will be issued tomorrow morning, unless conditions warrant otherwise.”
  4. @derickeuegeneree
    Interesting you should be saying that the CMC does this, because in case you don’t know, the CMC has a clear and very evident bias to overestimate storm intensity and blow-up virtually non-existant tropical cyclones, however, a recent upgrade to the model was supposed to correct these biases, and although it does seem to have helped, the model still struggles with storm intensity, which greatly affects storm track. Now, I do actually think it is interesting the CMC keeps up the intensity of this tropical disturbance very far inland, and I think this won’t weaken considerably given some of the conditions at hand, although if this storm goes into the Appalachians, (which I think is a bit too far west) the friction of the land will greatly weaken the winds aloft and will severely disrupt any surface circulation. However, knowing that this storm is monsoonal in its origin, this means that whatever storm develops will be quite large, and it is known that when dealing with tropical cyclones, larger disturbances, given the exact same conditions as a smaller storm, will weaken much more slowly and aren’t as adversely affected by an unfavorable surrounding environment, thus this storm will be large and will be slow to wind down (much Sandy & Irene which were large systems, although this storm will be nowhere near as strong). Also, when you consider that this storm will be weak to begin with, even if this goes over the relatively flat and swampy land of southern Florida, the friction of the land acting against the winds aloft will be weak, and considering that the environment in front of the storm will be very moist and a favorable poleward outflow channel will be establish with a trough to the north, this storm system actually may INTENSIFY over land despite not being over warm, tropical ocean water, somewhat reminiscent of Tropical Storm Allison, Tropical Storm Fay (2008), which scared many in southern Florida as it developed an eye-like feature while passing near Lake Okeechobee. This will be an interesting storm to track, but the key things to look for will be a large, and lopsided (asymmetrical) storm system due to some westerly wind shear and impinging dry air from the Gulf of Mexico, heavy rains, especially east of the storm, and potentially gusty winds at times, especially for areas closer to the coast. It actually is interesting to see the potential tracks of this storm system, because it reminds me a lot of the tracks of hurricanes Donna & Charley as they went over the eastern US, and what is also intriguing is both of those storms are in my analog years (1960, 1969, 1979, 2004, and 2010) for the upcoming hurricane season that I released all the way back in March, amazing to see these ideas actually beginning to verify, and as you mentioned, this very well could be a sign of things to come, although come August and September conditions will be much more favorable and supportive for tropical cyclone development.
  5. @ all bloggers
    Also, I highly recommend the bloggers here to see, in case they haven’t the 28storms.com hurricane season. I will say it is interesting they use some of the same factors I used to predict this hurricane season back in March, and 3 of their “analog” years 1960, 1979, and 2004, are also in my top 5 hurricane season analogs for this year!! It is cool to see others catching onto some of my ideas that I released several months ago.

    (link) http://28storms.com/longrange/2013-hurricane-season/

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