As we expected here at weatheradvance.com and have been preaching for a little over a week, a tropical system is now in the Gulf Of mexico and conditions are slightly favorable for development of this system. Now some people have wondered about the extreme view of the CMC. But is it really extreme or is it catching onto something? Well lets take a closer look at each model run, and see.
i have marked where the low pressure systems of note are. Why are they so significant? Well because there is a second low, a cold front that will be very instrumental in this storms progression. If the phase misses (06Z GFS Model) the storm fizzles out and doesn’t develop much, if it catches it, (CMC,UKMET,EURO) this becomes a strong tropical depression or weak tropical storm and eventually a coastal low pressure system and a moderate nor-easter. Either way, wind will not be a huge factor, but the heavy rain will be. So these details are very important.
So here is what the Euro Model is showing:
Picking up at hour 96 (Bellow) you can tell that there is a frontal system coming through the mid-west, with an area of high pressure behind it, what this does is funnels the tropical system right up into it. The storm merges with the cold front coming across the country at hour 120. And is a strong coastal low at this point losing its tropical characteristics, and it will not have much wind associated with it. But would be a heavy rain maker. Then at hour 144 it is leaving out of new england, where the winds may be a tad stronger due to the coastal low (possibly nor-easter by then?) strengthening. cooler air comes in behind the system. The tropical sytstem comes on shore of Florida, North Of Tampa, as either a weak tropical storm or strong tropical depression. Either way wind was never going to be a real issue with this system.
Now here is a look at the CMC (Bellow) which is very similar. Only difference is that this model has this storm west about 50-100 miles of the Euro. (Click on the image to enlarge) The Storm starts out in the gulf, and combines with a cold front coming down from Canada. It merges over Virginia, and Maryland and becomes a strong coastal low or nor-easter, delivering heavy rain, all up and down the East coast. From Central Florida all the way up to Maine.
Now lets look at the Ukmet Model (Bellow) and as you notice it says pretty much the same thing. Only difference here is that it is slower in exiting this system out of new england (northeast) and is still lingering around southern Maine at hour 144 while the other two have it to the northwest of Maine by this point.
Now last we will look at the outlier, the GFS shows a solution that races the system it was supposed to merge with acrross to the east much faster. will this still be the case on the 12Z model run? possibly. We will have to wait and see. But right now I would tip my hand to the CMC,Euro,Ukmet combination over the GFS that had the storm over a week while the others did not, and then lost it. Which is typical of the GFS about at this time frame.
Bellow is invest 91L so keep an eye on it. This is the system that we will be watching . Here is also my updated tropical development potential maps as well as updated storm track, that lean more to the CMC, Ukmet, and Euro.