While We Are Still Dealing With Andrea, Invest 92L has developed…

Don’t have much time today, but here is invest 92L. Right now does not pose a serious threat besides heavy rain for the Caribbean Islands. For further information please visit our Tropical Weather Center.

tropical development outlook 06-06-13

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

10 comments on “While We Are Still Dealing With Andrea, Invest 92L has developed…

  1. Really do not understand why the NHC has not renumbered invest 92L, ASCAT passes on the storm and satellite imagery support a tropical depression, in showing a closed circulation with winds being observed around 30 knots in the northern semi-circle. Of course I think its because this system is not threatening the US, if this storm was in the Gulf of Mexico, or much farther west where hurricane hunters can investigate the storm, would likely be talking about Tropical Depression 2 here or Tropical Storm Barry. Right now, I completely disagree with the NHC on this, think this deserves to be at least a depression, perhaps they may upgrade it in their post-season analysis.
  2. Eric do you think sometime down the road invest 92 could become a threat to the USA? You might not know but I’m asking.
  3. @Derickeugeneree and other bloggers
    Actually, as I said in the post above, this should have definitely been a tropical depression as it met all of the viable criteria for becoming one, with winds well in excess of 23 mph, persistent thunderstorm activity that has lasted for at least 48 hours, and a well defined low level circulation was observed on visible satellite and confirmed by an ASCAT satellite pass. However, the NHC did not name or designate this system because literally within the time it would become a tropical depression it would be declassified because they saw, just as well as I do that an unfavorable environment is greeting this storm with the subtropical jet stream enforcing very strong westerly wind shear in excess of 50 knots (60-65 MPH), which is very unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. Also, the sea surface temperatures aren’t extremely favorable, marginal at best, and TCHP is also marginal. Also, knowing the fact that this storm is also going to encounter even more wind shear as the upper level outflow from Tropical Storm Andrea and the trough catching it interact with this system, I virtually give this storm no chance to develop, however, this has system has virtually gone against most of the modeling and forecasts and is much stronger than anticipated, thus these tenacious systems always just need to monitored in case development does occur. As far as track goes, yes the remnants of this system or whatever is left of it will get fairly close to the southeast coast next week, and I’m currently watching a trough next week that will move through the eastern US, and at this time of the year with very short jet stream wavelengths, a lot of times, deep troughs will tend to leave energy behind. If energy is left behind and whatever is left of 92L enters the SW Atlantic and we see favorable upper level ridging directly north of the tropics promoting convergence, then I would watch out for some potential development, but this is a longshot, as the MJO will be going into an unfavorable octants 4 & 5 (Maritime Continent), that promotes downward motion over the Atlantic, which is unfavorable for development as the downward phase of the MJO promotes sinking motion that limits thunderstorm activity, and considering that thunderstorms are the basis for tropical cyclones, it makes sense as to why a downward MJO phase is unfavorable.

    However, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a system this strong over the central Atlantic so early in the season, it certainly has me very worried because, looking at the factors and conditions at hand, as well as considering my hurricane forecast for this season for an active cape verde hurricane season, this may indeed be a sign of things to come. Also remember something I mentioned in an earlier post about how storms that hit the east coast tend to originate near the Cape Verde islands and deep tropics as opposed to the storms that hit the Gulf which come out of the Caribbean, this is concerning given the strength of the 92L and the fact that we are in a pattern of cold PDO, warm AMO that features lots of hurricane hits on the east like in the 1950s & 1890s. Essentially, this has me quite worried as although this system may be weak, given the time of year and predictions I made for this season, this only seems to further confirm and support my ideas. If we were in August, this would not be just a tropical low like it is now, we would probably be dealing with a major hurricane in the central Atlantic, and I am worried that given the unusually favorable conditions in the deep tropics this year, that our first significant threat of the hurricane season may not be too far around the corner (perhaps July or even early August, depends on the MJO, but the next time it comes through the Atlantic will certainly be a time to watch and see if any system tries to get going.)

  4. @ midatlanticweather
    Well, if you’ve never heard of this kind of term before, you had better get used to it, because you are going to hear it a lot more often. What the 92L means is essentially a designation that the National Hurricane Center gives to “areas of interest” that may pose a potential threat to tropical development, and the NHC uses the numbers 90-99 to designate with these storms, with the Atlantic (because of the letter “L” in Atlantic) given the designation of L to accompany the numbers 90-99. The eastern Pacific uses the letter “E” with their invests, and the West Pacific uses “W” to denote their systems that may pose a potential threat for development (like 90W for example). This letter and number combination allows the NHC to accurately identify certain areas of tropical interest, and this allows for computer models and other forecasters to put focus on these systems, and this helps to lead to better forecasts on these storms and earlier detection, all of which are important to protecting lives and property and even shipping interests.
  5. @midatlanticweather
    Well, that’s out of my control, you’d have to ask Dante, but I don’t know if he will, I did give you guys warnings about posting that kind of content.

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