Sorry Guys, I’ll be Back this week…

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

8 comments on “Sorry Guys, I’ll be Back this week…

  1. @ Dante
    That’s ok, but hey, I thought you and the other bloggers would like to see this comment I made at usweatherplus, wow very interesting.
    Good post Mark, how have you been lately? Looks like the MJO once again exerting its influence as phase 3 in the JJA period favors warmth in the northeastern US. However, it looks that something strange is about to occur with the MJO that I haven’t seen for quite some time, looks like it will retrograde westward into the Atlantic once again within a few weeks, that’s at least according to the ECMWF & other models. The MJO though is already in a favorable position for tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic, although downward motion overall is currently found throughout the basin. The reason for this has to do with the MJO orientation to the Atlantic Basin & its relationship to the upper level winds along with the tropical easterly trades. I’ve always been under the impression that the MJO in phases 8-3 was where tropical activity occurred, and that octants 4 & 5 (Maritime Continent) were unfavorable for tropical activity in the Atlantic & with MJO in the east Pacific (octants 7 & 8) were unfavorable, not as much as phases 4 & 5 of the MJO. I discovered though that this is not the case and that actually in terms of MJO in its relationship to the Atlantic tropical activity & I wondered why, but I then thought about it. Considering that the MJO is in of itself of a measure of upward motion over the tropics & that the upper level winds over the mid-latitudes & even the tropics are generally westerly in nature (although they sometimes can become weak out of the east in the tropics). Also knowing that winds at the surface in the tropics because of the Hadley Cell are out of the east, & that with the upward phase of the MJO comes increased thunderstorm activity where air converges at the surface & spreads out in the upper levels of the troposphere, it makes sense why having the MJO in phase 6 & 7 is more unfavorable than having it farther away from the Atlantic in phases 4 & 5. If you think about it, the MJO towards phase 7 means it’s in the eastern Pacific, or west in orientation to the Atlantic, & with the MJO there that forces the upper level winds that spread out generally in all directions as a result of the increased thunderstorm activity to come out of west stronger than normal in the upper levels over the tropical Atlantic, and this enhances westerly wind shear that’s unfavorable to tropical cyclone genesis, because of the winds going in different directions from the upper levels where they are out of the west to the surface where they are generally out of the east at the surface. Now, having the MJO over the Indian Ocean or even Maritime Continent is much more favorable despite a similar amount of downward motion favored in the Atlantic, because now with the MJO to the east of the Atlantic, this forces stronger upper level easterlies into the Atlantic that lessens the effects of westerly wind shear, essentially creating a favorable environment for tropical cyclones. Also a thing to consider is with the MJO over the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent this also enhances African easterly waves which usually account for over 90% of all tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic, making them generally stronger & raising the chances for them to develop into tropical cyclones. I do want to add that usually when the MJO is over the Maritime Continent phases 4 & 5, that based on natural progression of the MJO west-east in the tropics, this means that it has also recently gone through the Atlantic & as a result of recent thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic this leads to the atmospheric column still being relatively warm & moist, both factors that also favor tropical cyclone genesis, & the opposite is true when the MJO is in phases 6 & 7.

    Now, what makes this situation so unique though is that we’re seeing the MJO retrograde westward into the Atlantic once again, & this suggests to me that also given the abnormally favorable conditions at hand for African easterly waves, the development of tropical storm Chantal & 92 L in the first week of June that conditions may get even more supportive for development in the eastern Atlantic as the MJO already to the east of Atlantic but now moving westerly into the Atlantic, you would have and additive effect of movement of the MJO on the upper level easterly winds, which would only further lower wind shear in the Atlantic, a favorable environment for tropical cyclones. I’ll lastly add, and I’m not sure if you saw this, but we had typhoon Soulik hit Taiwan recently, & you might be asking yourself, what is so significant about a tropical cyclone hitting Taiwan in the western Pacific, it happens a lot? Well, when I looked at the data & viewed years where there was one typhoon landfall landfall in Taiwan in the month of July (1948, 1953, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1965, 1967, 1971, 1982, 1984, 1987, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, & 2008, should notice by just looking at these seasons, there are some pretty nasty ones in here like 1960, 2005, 2008, & 2004) & looked at peak of those hurricane seasons, this is what I got for the 500 millibar pattern for the Aug-Oct time period. (link) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPObTUXCEAMYAgG.jpg
    Ouch, that looks ugly, +NAO set-up that I’ve been talking about since May & notice how pressures are below normal across the entire tropical atlantic, with a focus of activity near the Southeast US coast, and take note all of the blocking over southern Canada & into the north Atlantic, with a stronger than normal region of high pressure, (shown in shades of yellow & green in the link) that would have a tendency to block storms from going out to sea. If this is the case along with the conditions at hand already indicating an active season, this upcoming season looks like one that may not be forgiving to landmasses further west, especially for the Caribbean islands & the US coast.

  2. Will there accually be a ice age this winter and will it snow from October through April this winter? Or is it too early to tell?
  3. @Eric

    I just wanted you to see my first hurricane season forecast I have ever made. I tried to link as many factors as I could together to forecast it. I am going to take my first meteorology course next year, as I am in high school, so I do not know a lot about the complicated factors that go into forecasting hurricanes.

    http://noreasterwx.com/toparticles

    Thanks

    -Scott Reinhardt

  4. @ Derickeuegeneree
    I did happen to answer your question on another blog, here’s what I said, tell me what you think of this. Will try to put some of these ideas to work in an upcoming post I’m still working on.
    “I’ve actually been doing some research into the upcoming winter, & if you read the tweets I post on out twitter account I talk about the AAO (AntArctic Oscillation) index connection to the following northern hemisphere’s AO which suggests that this winter may indeed see yet another -NAO & if you extrapolate my hurricane season analogs into the next winter, you’ll be able to see that a lot of them are colder than normal especially from the northern plains & Great Lakes and points southeastward into the eastern US & southern US. I’ve also begun to take into consideration the PDO, which looks like it has briefly spiked into its warm cycle this summer, & looking at years in which there was a warm spike in the PDO during its cold cycle in the summer, you get some very cold winters, one of them being 1978 (I don’t know if you remember the Blizzard of 1978, one of the most infamous winter storms & its right up there with the blizzard of 1996 & snowmaggedon 2010 storms) & in fact that previous hurricane season of 1977 was almost an analog for this year, but it had no Cape Verde systems so I removed it, but that hurricane season, like so many others in my analog package had a category 5 hurricane that year (Anita) which luckily just missed south Texas. Now, getting back to the winter, I currently favor at the very least a cold start to winter, however a few conflicting factors like the Bering Sea ridge, PDO, & ENSO are still somewhat “foggy” at this time, thus its hard to forecast the entire winter, but I am definitely on the side that favors a generally cold winter this year from the northern plains southeastward into the Great Lakes & eastern US. We’ll also have to see how other things like northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly for October & of course stratospheric warming events (which actually are in high likelihood this year because we are near the peak of the solar cycle) which can lead to rather large arctic air intrusions into the mid-latitudes, sometimes even the US. We’ll see how this goes, but wouldn’t be all too surprised if it snows in October or April as my hurricane analogs extrapolated into the following winter & years with significant east coast hurricanes are generally favored periods for early & late snowfalls to occur outside of winter. We’ll have to see what happens though.”
  5. @ Scott
    Thank you, although I will say I’ll make a correction that we are in fact in ENSO neutral, not el nino (although it was forecasted earlier by the ECMWF, it’s forecast currently appears invalid). It certainly is not a bad first forecast, & I’ll say you do have some potential, I’ll throw some more factors at you, I did put these factors scattered throughout my recent postings & comments, so feel free to read about these.
    -Solar cycle relationship to US hurricane landfalls (more specifically the relationship between sunspots for the May-July & November time periods to September of the same season)
    -QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) & Atlantic hurricane activity
    -Atlantic warm Tripole
    -PDO & AMO cycles
    -MJO behavior & tendencies
    -Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
    -NAO & spring northern hemisphere snowfall cover (NAO influences the Azores-Bermuda high in hurricane season, the main steering mechanism for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic)
    – West Pacific typhoon recurvatures near the east coast of Asia teleconnecting to the US east coast
    -Typhoon hits on Taiwan (island in west Pacific near China) in July & the following hurricane season patterns for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season
    -Analog years (Mine are 1960, 1969, 1979, 1996, 2004, & 2010, I think NOAA used 1966 as well as some of my years that I’ve listed here)
    -Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea (near the equator just south of west Africa)

    Ok, well thanks for letting me see you outlook, & you should see some of these factors in my previous posts on here, & I’m kind of in the same situation as you (and I wish you luck) as I have yet to take a meteorology course too, will probably do so very late next year at the earliest.

  6. Hey Eric. You always make great posts on here and that is really impressive. But did you say that the east coast will get an early start to the snow in this upcoming winter? I didn’t see whether you commented that in this post it not. And please don’t get offended if I didn’t see it.
  7. @ Jordan R.
    Lol, that’s ok, but I did hint at based on the connection that can be made between the southern hemisphere’s AAO in their winter & the following winter AO in the northern hemisphere, (here’s the link to the AAO, note how in the start of their winter, which begins in late June, that the AAO has plunged deeply negative, & if my teleconnection between AAO & AO is indeed true, then this suggest that this winter’s AO in the northern hemisphere may plunge negative early in the winter, which offers evidence to suggest that our winter may get off to a relatively fast start, the opposite of last winter) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.obs.gif
    You should also notice how the AAO was strongly positive in our spring during March & April when the NAO & AO were still relatively negative, & now when you look at our AO & NAO they have gone positive as I indicated in May, interesting how the AAO in its positive phase seemed to preclude our own AO & NAO going positive just months later.
    AO index http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.obs.gif
    NAO index http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    Also, when you look at my hurricane season analogs of 1960, 1969, 1979, 1996, 2004, & 2010 extrapolated into next winter, they also show that conditions were colder than normal in the eastern US, especially early in the winter (link) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&mon1=11&mon2=11&iy=1960&iy=1969&iy=1979&iy=1996&iy=2004&iy=2010&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=100&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=USA&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

    Also, let me say that when you look at my hurricane season analogs & other years that featured an active east coast landfalling year in terms of tropical cyclones, there’s usually abnormally early snowstorms that tend to follow. Take for instance hurricane Bob which ran the east coast & hit Long Island as category 2 in 1991, was later followed by the midwest halloween blizzard of 1991 and the “Perfect Storm” which sat off the US east coast. Also remember in 2011, we had hurricane Irene run the eastern seaboard, was followed by the late October snowstorm of 2011. Then last year’s post Sandy snowstorm after Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern seaboard came in November. Also, many regions of the northeast observed a record snowstorm 9at least for the time) in October 1979, which followed hurricane David that hit the east coast that hurricane season in early September. Looking at Portland, Maine for example & their list of snowiest octobers on record
    2011 5.2 inches
    1969 3.8 inches
    1962 3.6 inches
    1963 1.7 inches
    1979 1.7 inches
    1906 .9 inches
    1961 .8 inches
    1926 .5 inches
    1884 .3 inches
    1993 .2 inches

    Those top 5 snowiest years all featured at the very least a significant hurricane threat on the US east coast, with 2011 having Irene, 1969 Hurricane Gerda (category 2 into eastern Maine), 1962 & 1963 featuring a series of close calls in New England & of course 1979 having hurricane David. Also, Portland’s coldest October on record was 1976, the same year Hurricane belle hit the US east coast in August 1976. This is just a trend I note in northeastern US early snowfalls in October, where they are usually preceded in the hurricane season by significant storms that make runs at the eastern seaboard.

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