Be Careful Not to Model Hug Folks

The Current state of the ENSO has stalled, long range models indicate that this will change, but ive seen this before, so until i see the models actually verify, i don’t see much reason why a repeat of last winters Neutral to weak ENSO is still possible.



National weather Service over the winter sees it more likely of a LA Nina-Neutral Conditions than an El Nino- Next Winter it is more likely to see the development of an el nino. But overall a small pool of cooler waters will persist in the eastern pacific, no real el-nino develops. Most likely scenario as I have said before in my thinking is a Very Weak La Nina Neutral Conditions, i just don’t see el nino at this time. That may change over the next few months. A Lot of time folks.


Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

47 comments on “Be Careful Not to Model Hug Folks

  1. I read this somewhere, but can’t find it again so I’ll ask her while this topic supports my question.

    What’s the difference between what goes on here on the East Coast for El-Nine and La-Nina? I live in the Southeast. 🙂

  2. Eric you might not know this but do you think more than just 1 tropical system will come and hit the east coast from the southeast or southwest?
  3. @ Derickeugeneree
    Actually, I have been leaning towards that solution for some time now, I know that given we are in a similar period to the 1950s where EIGHT major hurricanes hit the eastern seaboard, while we currently have none, & also given the 500mb May-July pattern in the Atlantic that I showed in my last post with reference years going back to 1995 which show that the east coast, southeastern US coast, & the central Gulf coast are going to be the prime target areas this season. It’s interesting you ask about where exactly a hurricane hit may come from, I did give a hint in my last post if you want to go back & look at that about given the pattern set-up & some similarities I’m seeing to years like 1933 & 1893, I do have that fear a storm may hit the US east coast, even potentially the mid-atlantic from the southeast, which you probably would know by reading the information I posted back on August 3rd that hurricanes which strike from the southeast (somewhat like Sandy, although it came in directly from the east) that those types of hurricanes are much more dangerous than the systems which take the classic “C” curve up the east coast.
    In general, although no one can be certain exactly where a hurricane will track or how it will do so, I have done my very best to answer those questions by looking at the May-July 500mb pattern & if I just based my analysis and thoughts on that, then yes, I think we would have a hurricane hit the east coast from the southeasterly direction, of course for now, I can’t be for certain on that, but I will definitely give it a high chance of probability this season.
    My last post on August 3rd just below this one on the main page should give you some more details to your question & concern.
  4. @eric
    Based on your current thoughts, if you were to rate this upcoming hurricane season from 1 to 10, (1 being average and 10 being the worst in history), where would this hurricane season fall?


    Scott Reinhardt

  5. So, are you folks thinking that here in North Central Texas (Dallas). another warm, dry, boring winter should be expected?
  6. @Scott Reinhardt
    Well, I would say, a scale more like 1 being the best hurricane season ever to 10 being the worst in history, not just in terms of devastation but also in overall hurricane ACE index, number of storms & hurricanes, etc, 2005 still takes the cake, although years like 1933 & 1893 aren’t too far behind. Considering there is always some degree of uncertainty when dealing with the hurricane season, this is why i’m not going to say this year is a 9 simply because of that fact, but if I’d rate it on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being the best, 10 being the worst hurricane season, I’d give this year a solid 8 for now. This year already has proven itself as one that will become fairly active with 4 developments thus far, which is above the 1966-2012 average of about 2 storms by this time. Plus, 2 of those named storms developed in the MDR before August 1, only 5 years since 1950 have been able to do that & more specifically, both of those storms developed in the “deep tropical” Atlantic, & there have only been 3 years since 1950 (1966, 1979, & 2005) which were able to do this. Overall, my analog package I developed way back in March & refined a little bit in June by adding 1996 to the mix really forecasts a slightly above average season in general, which would solidly put this year as at least a 6. To add to this, the 500mb May-July anomaly pattern supports the ideas I’ve had for quite sometime now that this is not going to be like the last several years where many storms avoid the United States not with the stronger than normal Icelandic Vortex in place. Thus, with an above average season on tap & high risk of hurricane landfalls, also given some uncertainty regarding that, I’ll hold this year as an “8” for now on a scale of 1-10.
  7. @ Scott Reinhardt
    I saw you followed me on twitter, well if you ever have any questions or whatever, feel free to message me or Dante on the twitter account & there I usually post much more frequent updates about the weather, especially the tropics because we are now getting into the meat of hurricane season, but once we get deep into fall, those tweets will change more towards being focused primarily on the upcoming winter
  8. @ Scott Reinhardt
    Wow, that’s awesome, I have actually yet to take any tours of the NWS office myself, I plan to do so in the future, must have been a great experience for you & I look forward to see what you tweet in the future. Obviously, I still have a lot to learn though, still only my 1st year here at weatheradvance & of course I have yet to take any courses on meteorology, I’ve learned much of what I know from people like Joe Bastardi, Joe D’Aleo, Levi Cowan, through my own scientific readings & my own experience as being a forecaster here. I tell you what though, things really do change once you start to forecast, it’s a whole other world from just being a weather enthusiast, which I still am of course, lol.
  9. @ Scott Reinhardt
    I make an interesting observation about this site in that it seems more to me that this is a seasonal-based weather website, with most of the bloggers coming here during the winter time when the threats of snow are abound. These times in the summer are generally quiet for the most part, of course unless a hurricane threatens the eastern seaboard then things pick up a little bit. However, I’m hopefully going to try & change this by having people who love winter weather also come to admire & wonder at the awe of tropical weather & hurricane season in the summer. Just wait until we get towards the fall months, especially around October once the winter forecasts start coming out, things change quite a bit around here, last year I noted how many people were around during the winter to March, then after the snowstorms stopped, things went quiet again, so interesting how I seem to notice little things like this.
  10. @eric
    Does Weather Advance have a headquarters or is it just an internet thing. I have always been curious to know. Did you know as much about weather and forecasting as you know now when you joined Weather Advance. I am really happy I have this website to blog on, because as I mentioned previously, I am the only one I know who likes weather, and there are really no clubs or camps out there in Boston for kids like me. I might talk to my meteorology teacher, to see if I can start a forecasting club, but I just don’t think enough kids will sign up for it.

    Scott Reinhardt

  11. @Bloggers—Get over it. We were wrong about this tropical (hurricane) season. The tropics have been very slow and are expected to stay that way. Only 4-5 tropical cyclones WITH no hurricanes. I think that is terrible by August 7th. Get over it. The tropics will not be active. I could be 85% with that. Mexico my have a couple hurricanes but nothing but 1 cyclone (Andrea). By 8/7/13, I think 1 cyclone in the US so far by August is terrible. Don’t worry, there will be no more hurricanes for the US for the rest of the season. Even Yahmas said it. Don’t be excited for hurricanes, all they cause is economic damage. NO MORE HURRICANES! 🙂
  12. @ Central NJ Weather
    No, haven’t you even read or considered any of the information in my recent posts? #1, the first week of August anyway isn’t too much different from July & it’s climatologically speaking the slowest week tropically speaking in the entire month of August, it only gets more active from here. #2, you are completely wrong once again, that saying “the tropics haven’t been active” & it shows your lack of experience in covering hurricanes & tropical phenomena. If you understood them very well, you would know that this season already has been extremely active the 2 MDR developments before August 1st, one of only 5 years since 1950 to do so, including the 2005 hurricane season. Also, the first hurricane on AVERAGE comes around August 10th, we are still relatively on schedule in that aspect. The fact that you also say that by the 1st week of August, the US not getting ANY hurricane landfalls is once again another fallacy if you looked at the actual data that shows normally, the peak time for hurricane strikes on the US coastline is from August 30th through September 15th, we aren’t even close to that yet. Where’s your data to support your claims such as these, because if you actually looked at the data with the solar cycles minimum & maximums, the MJO behavior the last several months in being heavily favored towards octants 1-3, indicative that upward motion is favored in our part of the world, the pre season 400mb temperatures that were much warmer than normal in the tropical Atlantic, supportive of hurricane formation through the process of latent heat release, the warm AMO Atlantic tripole & even la nina like conditions developing in the east Pacific, contrary to the ECMWF & CFSv2 forecasts that had an el nino forecasted in the central Pacific by now, did that verify? No, & to continue, the +NAO which I showed actual evidence in this being linked to significant hurricane landfalls in that it strengthens the Azores-Bermuda high & forces storms farther to the west, also the wetter than normal conditions which are much like years like 1893, 1938, & my analog hurricane season package that had generally wet conditions in the eastern US & southeast US in the summer, which HAS VERIFIED.

    Also, the Indian Ocean Dipole is in its negative state, promoting more upward motion over the African continent which has led to increasingly powerful African Waves that are accountable for about 90-95% of all hurricanes in the Atlantic & also a large number in the eastern Pacific. The negative Dipole, one would think with cooler than normal waters favored in the north Indian Ocean would be a hinderance to Atlantic hurricane activity, but this is not the case. What I posted on another blog about the Indian Ocean Dipole is worth mentioning here to you Yesterday I said that the “debate was still open” relatively speaking for the Indian Ocean Dipole’s effect on tropical activity, I plan on putting that debate & confusion about the Indian Ocean Dipole & its effects on Atlantic activity to rest with these posts below & I’ll show you the data which proves my notion which is the opposite of Joe Bastardi & Joe D’Aleo’s claims that a +IOD enhances activity in the tropical Atlantic, which I also said yesterday was not supported at all by the IOD data & tropical data for systems south of 20 north & east of 60 degrees west in the prime development region & was completely inaccurate & made no sense from a meteorological standpoint.Actual data of storm systems in the prime development region of Atlantic south of 20N & west of 60w supported my idea that a -IOD, at least during period of -PDO/+AMO that activity was enhanced when Indian Ocean was cool, opposite of popular belief that a warmer than normal north Indian Ocean compared against cool near Indonesia (a +IOD) would enhance Atlantic tropical activity because the warmer than normal waters lead to a stronger Indian Monsoon that’s supposed to apparently lead to more activity in the Atlantic. This obviously wasn’t the case when I looked a tropical developments since 2008 at the flip of cold PDO, in which the 3 yrs that were more towards a +IOD (2008/2011/2012) featured ONLY 2 hurricanes & 1 major in “deep tropical Atlantic”, while 2 -IOD yrs of 2009 & 2010 had 7 hurricanes & 4 majors in that same area of Atlantic with the el nino yr of 2009 alone having 2 major hurricanes in the deep tropics, more than the 3 +IOD yrs combined.With that data in mind, I also made my own calculations on the hurricane ACE index (really wasn’t that hard, just added the sums of the squares of the maximum wind speeds in knots for all coordinates south of 20 north, east of 60 west & divided that number by 10,000, which is exactly how hurricane ACE is calculated, for the purpose of showing all of you that in fact a -IOD is favorable to tropical activity in the prime development region of the Atlantic, I decided to hone in on this area. Here was what I came up with as far as each individual storm system’s ACE in this area since 2008 & the overall season totals so you can accurately compare -IOD leaning years to ones that lean more towards a +IOD. ACE index for all storms since 2008 in the “Prime Development Region” of the Atlantic south of 20 degrees north, east of 60 degrees west.
    Hurricane Bertha (2008) 4.955
    Hurricane Ike (2008) 1.7875
    Tropical Storm Josephine (2008) 3.07
    Tropical Storm Nana (2008) .49
    Season total: 10.39 ACE
    Tropical Storm Ana (2009) .8575
    Hurricane Bill (2009) 12.48
    Tropical Storm Erika (2009) .5275
    Hurricane Fred (2009) 9.805
    Tropical Storm Henri (2009) 1.215
    Season total ACE in “prime development region”: 24.88
    Tropical Storm Colin (2010) .245
    Hurricane Danielle (2010) 5.41125
    Hurricane Earl (2010) 4.419
    Tropical Storm Fiona (2010) 1.022
    Tropical Storm Gaston (2010) .245
    Hurricane Igor (2010) 24.653
    Hurricane Julia (2010) 8.483
    Hurricane Lisa (2010) 2.53
    Hurricane Tomas (2010) 1.418
    2010 hurricane season ACE index total in “prime development region”: 48.43
    Hurricane Irene (2011) .278
    Hurricane Katia (2011) 6.816
    Hurricane Maria (2011) 1.733
    Hurricane Ophelia (2011) 3.833
    Hurricane Phillipe 3.533
    2011 season total ACE in “prime development region”: 16.2
    Hurricane Ernesto (2012) .713
    Tropical Storm Florence (2012) 1.513
    Hurricane Isaac (2012) .845
    Tropical Storm Joyce (2012) .245
    Hurricane Leslie (2012) 3.22
    Hurricane Nadine (2012) 1.145
    Tropical Storm Oscar (2012) .587
    2012 hurricane season total ACE in “prime development region” 8.27
    Now when you compare -IOD years to +IOD years not only in terms of actual hurricanes & major hurricanes, but now also hurricane Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index this is what you get for all years since 2008, 2009 & 2010, the two negative IOD years easily beat all of the other +IOD years.
    ACE index ranking for prime development region in Atlantic for + & -IOD years since 2008. (Interesting the -IOD year of 2010’s ACE alone beats all of the other +IOD years combined, just goes to show a -IOD is favorable for tropical cyclones.)
    #1 Negative IOD 2010- 48.43
    #2 Negative IOD 2009- 24.88
    #3 Positive IOD 2011- 16.42
    #4 Positive IOD 2008- 10.39
    #5 Positive IOD 2012- 8.27
    Now, I not only have looked at all of the years since the cold PDO flip in 2008, but now I’m going to go all the way back to 1958, when reliable record keeping of the IOD began & compare the numbers for prime development region of the Atlantic in the -IOD & +IOD years
    According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (link given above) they have identified 11 +IOD years since 1958 (1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 2006, & 2007), & 10 -IOD years since 1958 (1958, 1960, 1964, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1989, 1992, 1993, & 1996). What I’m going to do here is simply compare the numbers in both sets of years for tropical storms, hurricanes & major hurricanes in the prime development region of the Atlantic I have identified as being south of 20 north, east of 60 west, & I will settle this debate about the IOD & its effects on Atlantic tropical activity once & for all.
    Here’s the data I gathered for all the activity in the +IOD years in the “prime development region
    1961- 4 TS, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
    1963- 6 TS, 4 hurricanes, 1 major
    1967- 2 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1972- 0 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1977- 2 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1982- 1 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1983- 0 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1994- 2 TS, 1 hurricane, 0 majors
    1997- 1 TS, 1 hurricane, 0 majors
    2006- 4 TS, 1 hurricane, 0 majors
    2007- 5 TS, 2 hurricanes, 0 majors
    Here’s the data I gathered for the 10 -IOD years since 1958
    1958- 5 TS, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
    1960- 1 TS, 1 hurricane, 1 major
    1964- 4 TS, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
    1971- 1 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1974- 2 TS, 1 hurricane, 0 majors
    1975- 2 TS, 1 hurricane, 0 majors
    1989- 7 TS, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors
    1992- 1 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1993- 2 TS, 0 hurricanes, 0 majors
    1996- 6 TS, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors
    So in all, here’s what the actual data says about Atlantic Tropical activity & the Indian Ocean Dipole
    All of the +IOD years since 1958 had a grand total of 27 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, & 2 majors
    However, the -IOD years, there were 10 of them since 1958 had 31 tropical storms, 16 hurricanes, & 7 major hurricanes, thus my thinking that -IOD enhances tropical activity in the prime development region of the Atlantic is indeed correct. Let’s also remember that there is one less -IOD year than +IOD years, & if there was indeed no correlation at all, the +IOD years would have had higher numbers, but of course according to the actual data that was not the case & it looks like Joe Bastardi & Joe D’Aleo will have a little explaining to do here on this one.
    Now, I tried narrowing down some of these -IOD years to ones that had a neutral ENSO as well as a -IOD, & there were 5 years since 1958 that had this kind of pattern like what’s being observed now, 1958, 1960, 1989, 1992, & 1996. Those are some fairly historic & nasty hurricanes we are being matched up against here based on the actual conditions at hand & a very interesting statistic about these years is that 4 out of 5 of them featured a category 5 Cape verde hurricane (Cleo in 1958, Donna in 1960, which later smashed the US eastern seaboard bringing hurricane force winds to EVERY state on the eastern US., Hurricane Hugo in 1989, & Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the last category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the US, only of only 3 storms in history to ever do so, along with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane & 1969’s Hurricane Camille.)
    I provided more evidence to this in my post below, where I talked about 5 yrs since 1950 (1966, 1969, 1979, 1989, & 2003) like this yr had at least one TS & other system of tropical depression strength or greater form in “prime development region” of the Atlantic before August, 3 out of the 5 of those years had a category 5 Cape verde hurricane, 4 of 5 had a category 5 hurricane, 1966 was VERY close with hurricane Inez, a borderline category 5 with winds that topped out near 155 mph. I give more explanation on my thinking to why I think a category 5 Cape Verde hurricane actually seems somewhat likely this season given other factors like Sahel rainfall, among other things, & of course you can now take these neutral ENSO & -IOD years into account as well, very interesting to say the least.

    So, in general, you just need to patient & just because the tropics are quiet now in the 1st week of August, doesn’t mean much for the season as a whole & the fact that you are trying to even suggest this season is a bust shows your lack of experience in tracking tropical phenomena & the fact that you can’t come up with any solid evidence to back up your claims & assumptions shows your unfamiliarity as well with the topic. I haven’t changed my forecast at all since March & don’t plan on doing so anytime soon, unlike other forecasters who may change their ideas every few months or so, mine hasn’t changed at all & that shows how confident I am in my forecast & the consistency I’ve shown in my ideas is a necessary quality I wish all weather enthusiasts & forecasters would take to heart, because it doesn’t really matter if you make a ton of forecasts & one of them is right, rather, you work very hard to make one & only forecast and at least if you’re wrong in making that one forecast, you can easily see your mistakes & where you went wrong. Thus, you become better as a meteorologist, instead of making a bunch of forecasts and learning almost nothing from it. Just some advice I hope you can take to heart & really take some time to soak in, just be patient with the tropics, do not suddenly jump to conclusions yet, that’s not wise at all, especially considering we still have about 80% of the hurricane season left to go even at the end of the 1st week of August.

  13. @ Scott Reinhardt
    Not that I’m aware of do we have a headquarters, yeah it’s primarily an internet thing, luckily I heard Dante in the future is going to try & expand our operations to facebook as well as the twitter account Dante & I post frequently on. I have learned so much though since I joined the site at weatheradvance, being an actual forecaster has taught me so much you won’t even believe & I’ve persevered myself to learn more every single day I’m here, I’m certainly exponentially more knowledgable & smarter since I came here a year ago, I will tell you that. I know there are some sites out there you can blog on, americanwx forums, premium forum (I post there a lot), I also go to Jeff Masters blog & look through some of the information there (although I don’t agree at all with their ideas on AGW, that’s a topic I covered very extensively back in March. I know USweatherplus Mark does his own forecasting as we all as Andrew of the Weathercentre & Levi Cowan is pretty much my idol when it comes to tropical forecasting, his site is searchable in google if you just enter “tropical tidbits”, his videos are so full of information, I strongly suggest watching them. Other than that, I don’t know of a forecasting club, but I really love your enthusiasm in wanting to start one.
  14. @Eric—I am experienced. Also, Pacific tropical cyclones DO NOT count. 1 tropical cyclone impacting the US is NOTHING. So far, there were NO Atlantic hurricanes. So, the fact this season has been active is wrong. Compare this season to last year. So please learn your scales. That is like saying one 6 inch snowstorm is a lot for Central NJ and that was the only snowstorm. My average is 30 inches. So, you are saying 6 inches is a lot during the first half of the winter and I should have 15. Please learn your scales and averages better. I am actually a smart guy and not a bad British forecaster like you think I am.
  15. @Eric—Seriously. This means very little here.

    “Hurricane Bertha (2008) 4.955 Hurricane Ike (2008) 1.7875 Tropical Storm Josephine (2008) 3.07 Tropical Storm Nana (2008) .49 Season total: 10.39 ACE Tropical Storm Ana (2009) .8575 Hurricane Bill (2009) 12.48 Tropical Storm Erika (2009) .5275 Hurricane Fred (2009) 9.805 Tropical Storm Henri (2009) 1.215 Season total ACE in “prime development region”: 24.88 Tropical Storm Colin (2010) .245 Hurricane Danielle (2010) 5.41125 Hurricane Earl (2010) 4.419 Tropical Storm Fiona (2010) 1.022 Tropical Storm Gaston (2010) .245 Hurricane Igor (2010) 24.653 Hurricane Julia (2010) 8.483 Hurricane Lisa (2010) 2.53 Hurricane Tomas (2010) 1.418 2010 hurricane season ACE index total in “prime development region”: 48.43 Hurricane Irene (2011) .278 Hurricane Katia (2011) 6.816 Hurricane Maria (2011) 1.733 Hurricane Ophelia (2011) 3.833 Hurricane Phillipe 3.533 2011 season total ACE in “prime development region”: 16.2 Hurricane Ernesto (2012) .713 Tropical Storm Florence (2012) 1.513 Hurricane Isaac (2012) .845 Tropical Storm Joyce (2012) .245 Hurricane Leslie (2012) 3.22 Hurricane Nadine (2012) 1.145 Tropical Storm Oscar (2012) .587 – See more at:

    Care about the present NOT years ago.

  16. @Eric—Well this season has been slow. And thanks for telling me the first hurricane comes around the 10th. Guess what? No sign of one that date. So this season has been slow compared to last year.
  17. Maybe there will not be a cold and snowy winter for many years due to global warming. Haha. Global warming is causing more cold to drop into the US. The global warming is causing blocking in the US. Yes, global warming is real.
  18. No…no…no. Not more blocking in the US but Canada. A little error in the comment above.
  19. @ Central NJ Weather
    Is that sarcasm or are you being for real, because if you’re going to bring this up, I guess I’m going to have to refer you to my absolutely huge March post, I talk all about the AGW issue in there & I address my hurricane season predictions, remember this was happening all the way back in March while many were still thinking of snow.
  20. @ Central NJ Weather
    Hold on, it’s in the past & it doesn’t matter? Do you even have any clue what you’re talking about? I hope you do realize that history tends to repeat itself & similar patterns do pop up periodically & if you don’t understand the past you won’t understand the present or future, that’s extremely ignorant of you to sit there & claim that “oh, it doesn’t matter, its in the past!” Shows once again, your extreme lack of experience & knowledge of weather phenomena.
  21. @Eric—What? Everyone knows Global Warming is REAL whether you believe or not. Yes I am being real about that and the hurricane season. Don’t worry. There will be no storms to worry about. I think our US economy is more important than wishing and wish-casting for hurricanes. I think you should focus more on this economic depression rather than wishing for hurricanes. Look what hurricane Sandy did. Guess what? This was economic damage. So, do not be excited for hurricanes.
  22. @ Central NJ Weather

    “@Eric—Seriously. This means very little here.”
    Of course it means a lot, it is part of the Indian Ocean Dipole which plays an important role in a hurricane forecast. Do you even have any clue what those numbers mean? Probably not, because you didn’t actually go through & take the time to read my response to you, instead just kept posting ignorant responses like the ones above which are a waste of blogspace & time.

  23. @Eric—I am experienced. I also do not make up stuff about this tropical season. Look at the 18z GFS and only 1 possible tropical cyclones shows up on the GFS. This season has had below average activity and will remain that way based off the GFS. I do not care about what the ECMWF says.
  24. @Eric—I do not post ignorant responses. I base my forecasts off of currents models. I bet you did not check the current GFS run.
  25. @ Central NJ Weather
    Oh really, you’re that experienced? So where’s all your data to support your claims of this being “below average activity” I’ve shown mine, where’s yours?
  26. @ Central NJ Weather
    You base your forecast of off models? Oh, I see, so you won’t look at history, you say that’s in the past & it doesn’t matter, lol, then you don’t consider nor do you seem to acknowledge any of the conditions at hand. Definitely if you were an “experienced” forecaster, you wouldn’t have to rely so much on models, now would you?
  28. @ Central NJ Weather
    Of course I check the GFS run, seems like you think that the models are gospel, lol, setting yourself up for failure there. Sorry, but you do need to actually try & read my post from March, it will open your eyes to new things.
  29. @Eric—Yes, I do care about US history. It was cold and snowy during one winter of the American Revolution. See, I know about weather.
  30. @ Central NJ Weather
    Lol, one “tropical depression” hit the US, lol? I thought Andrea was a tropical storm, seems like you’re having trouble there too lol. Where’s my evidence? Unless you’re completely & utterly ignorant & don’t read any of my responses to you nor the posts I have made the last several months, you will see I provided MORE than enough evidence to support that this will be & has been thus far an active hurricane season. If you were actually an “experienced” forecaster, you would know that by now, lol.
  31. @ Central NJ Weather
    Lol, so now you care about history? I thought you said it was in the past & didn’t matter? Wow, talk about inconsistency & a complete lack of understanding of weather phenonmena. You really are a complete waste of my time because you’re blantantly ignorant of any factual information or anything I’ve tried to show you & have been nothing but a nuisance here, I might as well ban you again.
  32. @ Central NJ Weather
    Until you stop making forecasts like every two weeks on the winter, until you actually acknowledge facts & history or any other information I present to you, until you actually read my posts which go all the way back to March, until you actually get a better understanding of meteorological principles, you are pointless in dealing with because it does feel like I’m talking to a brick wall.
  33. @ Central NJ Weather
    My suggestion to you would be to actually read my posts from the last several months instead of saying they’re too long,etc…& look at my 1st response above to you again, then maybe that will give you a much better understanding of what’s happening here. It’s not “wishcasting”, this is the way from what I’ve learned through my experiences here & in studying meteorology that this is the way weather forecasting should been done. I’m not saying anyone else’s methods are somehow “wrong”, I just feel that the way I do things in that I don’t tend to look at models much, use history & the conditions at hand more & use the models as a tool & guide rather than actual forecast, that it’s right. Hopefully one day maybe you can come to your senses and understand these basic principles or at least interpret them in your own way to be useful to yourself in whatever meteorology career you may pursue.
  34. @ Central NJ Weather
    Did you really think I was kidding when I was talking about “ban”? Interesting how in some of the comments I deleted only now are you trying to post nicer comments to me, yeah, not falling for that. You really need to read my posts, I’m not even kidding, even if it takes you hours to do it, heck I spent 3-4 weeks on that last one, the least you could do is at least respect what I’m saying here instead in one of your deleted comments calling me an “idiot”. Really? Do you think that eve fits me given all of the research & hard work I do here to make my forecasts as accurate as possible & show you as many reasons WHY I think a certain way. I’m certainly no dummy when it comes to weather, I do know what I’m talking about here & I still though have a lot more to learn as an aspiring future meteorologist, perhaps even hurricane hunter (that’s one of my goals is to become one)
  35. What’s the difference in what happens here in the Southeast between El Nino and La Nina? Sorry for asking 2nd time here but no one answered me up top on the first comment. 🙂
  36. @ Bradley
    Ok, I see your comment, well the difference for the southeastern US in a general sense regarding el nino vs la nina is that generally in la ninas conditions are drier & warmer than normal because of the cooler than normal waters over the equatorial Pacific force the mid-latitude jet stream to mainly have one distinct & very long branch, which in the case of a winter like 2011-12, this fast Pacific jet stream going over the relatively frictionless water surface for a long period of time can gain a lot of momentum & this is only enhanced by the cooler than normal waters in the east Pacific. This is because during el nino, when the waters are warmer than normal, the increased upward motion & convection caused by the warmer waters release latent heat into the atmosphere that forces the jet stream to slow down & buckle, & with an enhanced subtropical branch of the jet stream, this leads to generally stormy conditions in the southeastern US during el ninos & that’s also accompanied by generally cooler weather that usually increases the chances for snowfall.

    However, just because you have an el nino does not mean you will always have cold & snowy weather in the southeastern US, in fact there are many cases where an el nino pattern can actually in some cases be a complete bust winter & be even worse than a la nina pattern. Reason being has to do with the overall positioning of the el nino over the equatorial Pacific, or the region in which the warmest water temperature anomalies compare to average are located. There are generally two types of observed el ninos, one is an east-based el nino, the other is a central-west based el nino, which isn’t like the classic el nino that sits off the South American coast, rather the warmest ocean water temperature anomalies are closer to the central Pacific & the International Dateline. Of the two types of el ninos, the one that is better for winter storms in the southeastern US is a central-west based el nino because it has to do with the relationship between the pressure pattern of the Pacific, North America, & the North Atlantic as well as the Hawaiian low in relation to the Gulf of Alaska ridging or troughing in place depending on the PDO cycle (cold PDO tends to have a considerable ridge near the Gulf of Alaska, warm PDO has a trough there). When you have a central-west based el nino, this enforces the Hawaiian low, & this region of seemingly innocent & unsuspecting low pressure has a very big role in the pressure pattern over North America. What this low pressure does is if you think about this much like a rock in a stream, the Hawaiian low forces the mid-high latitude jet stream around it to change direction & go around the low, in doing so because of the air’s inertia, much like if you are in a car & you have to make a sharp turn you have to slow down, same general concept applies here, this forces a piling up of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere & forces the jet stream to buckle, thus forcing the Gulf of Alaska ridge once prevalent near that region to be displaced further east towards western North America, where it now enhances a +PNA pattern, & this +PNA along with an already active subtropical jet stream allows for a trough to be favored in the eastern US & it’s in this kind of set-up where phasing between the subtropical & polar jet can occur, & such major phasing events along with the warm Gulf stream that sets up a natural temperature distribution that feeds mid-latitude cyclone’s & winter storm’s feeding of energy baroclinically (that means off of instability, which is a difference in air pressure & temperature that creates major clashes, such storms need these processes because unlike tropical cyclones which are “barotropic” relying upon latent release through the process of water vapor condensing into liquid water aloft where temperatures have cooled enough to change the water back to liquid “adiabatic cooling”, or cooling that occurs when a substance increases in altitude & the change in states towards a substance which the water molecules are moving in a more confined space must be balanced, thus energy is released to compensate for this loss of movement, most of which is heat, only a small fraction of that energy in latent heat release is actually converted into wind energy). Now, of course also when you have the Atlantic in its overall warm cycle like it is now in which troughs are generally more favorable towards western Europe (teleconnects to eastern North America trough) & with a warm central Pacific for a central-west based el nino, this means in general there are two regions in which pressures are generally low, & between them, the pressures tend to rise & the continent in between them is of course North America, & when you have rising pressures in the winter, that’s indicative of cool air because of its natural property to sink because its naturally more heavy than warm air & that’s because of the slower movement of the air molecules within cold air to warm air allow them to pass much closer to each other when they slow down, thus cool air essentially becomes more dense & compact. However, on the other hand, if the pressures are low near South America & the Atlantic from an east-based el nino, then you can’t get an adequate pressure rise in between those oceans over North America, thus in a general sense you can conclude that with rising air everywhere instead of sinking air it would be naturally harder to sustain cold air masses in the winter. Also, an east based el nino can actually force pressure rises near Hawaii & weaken that low which would then allow the Gulf of Alaska ridge in place from the cold PDo to stay put, thus enforcing pressure falls towards western North America, a -PNA & this also may force the subtropical jetstream or whatever is left of it into the American southwest, thus it’s in these kinds of winters that those areas can actually be cold & snowy, or at least see increased chances of snow in places that don’t usually see it like Las Vegas, Tuscon, & even to some extent Phoenix, AZ.
    Hope this answers your question!

  37. Eric, don’t waste your time arguing with Central NJ Weather. He is actually acting like Yahamas and he even agreed with him as he mentioned “Yahmas” name as he states “Even Yahmas said it” that their will be no hurricanes and not be active this year. He really doesn’t have knowledge about weather and hugs the models predictions. Just look at how many winter forecasts he made on youtube and has constantly been changing them. It seems like he is wish-casting by putting the midatlantic and the northeast in a cold snowy with blizzards. I even agree with Josh Adams about him posting too many winter forecasts on youtube. The heart of the hurricane season has not started and he’s already giving up on this season. hurricane season needs to be focused first before winter. Central NJ probably just cares about winter weather and no other extreme weather. Just Ban him already.
  38. @ Wasi
    Thank you & I will do so, thank you for taking the time to post that comment. Of course, believe it or not, he’s nowhere near as annoying at this guy named “Jordan” on twitter, by far the worst individual I’ve ever met, can’t believe I’m saying this, but he’s worse than Yamahas ever was, like him on steroids, seriously. He’s the 1st person I’ve ever had to block from our twitter account, and that says a lot.
  39. @ Yamahas, please quit bashing Eric, and threatening him. If you dont like his forecasts, then don’t bother looking at his forecasts. Thank you.

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