The Current state of the ENSO has stalled, long range models indicate that this will change, but ive seen this before, so until i see the models actually verify, i don’t see much reason why a repeat of last winters Neutral to weak ENSO is still possible.
National weather Service over the winter sees it more likely of a LA Nina-Neutral Conditions than an El Nino- Next Winter it is more likely to see the development of an el nino. But overall a small pool of cooler waters will persist in the eastern pacific, no real el-nino develops. Most likely scenario as I have said before in my thinking is a Very Weak La Nina Neutral Conditions, i just don’t see el nino at this time. That may change over the next few months. A Lot of time folks.