Of course many of you have seen my original outlook for this upcoming winter, but it was very simple and only contributed a few factors. We will now consider those as well as a few other factors that it was too early to focus on before. So lets get started, as I have had to make a few adjustments to my outlook.
State of The NAO/AO/PNA- Right now that is really hard to tell about what will happen over the upcoming winter. We still need to see the exact pattern that we will be headed too over the next few months. Lately we have had a more positive NAO than a negative one. This could flip flop by winter though. But as I said it is too far away to determine or estimate what the NAO or AO are going to look like. One aspect that we have to see is the stratospheric warming events that are taking place. The Warmer it is in the stratosphere over the north pole the more negative the NAO and AO have a chance to be. It usually takes about 4 weeks for those to work together in harmony but my hunch now is that we will see some signs as we head through mid-fall.
El Nino/La NIna Tracker- Currently the CFS-V2 seems to be holding the course so far when it comes to temperatures in the eastern pacific as the cooling temperatures seemed to have finally come to a halt. We will keep an eye on this but currently as we stand right now we are about -0.2 which is a very very slight la nina (technically) Right now i am finally building some confidence in this model, perhaps it is onto something. Nevertheless, we should not make it into a full blown el-nino until next year. But for this year my best assumption is that it will be a very weak la nina to a very weak el-nino for this upcoming winter.
Looking At The Weather Pattern- As you start heading later into the summer months and start to begin heading into fall what you want to do is see what type of weather pattern we are getting themselves into and what I have noted is something similar to what we were predicting here at weather advance to transpire over the winter. Occasionally over the last month we have had much cooler than average air spill into the eastern half of the United States. Where temperatures were supposed to be in the upper 80′s they were now in the upper 70′s and low 80′s. Models predict over the coming week another shot of cooler than average air is expected to come down as well. We have seen this 3 or 4 times so far this summer, and we did not see any such episodes last summer. It has also been wetter than average in the eastern half of the United States as well. I expect this pattern to become more evident over the next several months.
So what are my updated Predictions For winter 2013-2014? Well there are a few adjustments and moderation that I did have to make. While I think we will see a continuation of how things ended last winter, I dont think the cold air will get as far south as it did last year. We have seen this over the past few months, As a result I have shifted the battlezone further north and a cooler than average pocket in the west. For a More detailed Discussion for your region. Click on your region that you live in on the Golden bar on the top of this page.
However, The Theme seems to be that it will be cold this upcoming winter. Stay tuned as we will fine tune this forecast a couple more times before we release our final winter outlook.