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Sep 04 2013

Dante' Brown-Royal

Winter 2013-2014 Outlook – Southeast (Detailed)

Southeast Winter Outlook -2nd Edition

Southeast Winter Outlook -2nd Edition

When it comes to winter of 2013-2014, this is the region that saw the most dramatic of shifts when it comes to this outlook. Areas like Atlanta that were in the Winter Battle Zone are now out of it as that area has been shifted farther to the North. A lot of people have been wondering why? Well look at the pattern that we have been in for a while, it is in line with this forecast where the cooler air comes from Canada but does not make it all the way down into the southeast. While temperatures cool down its not a massive difference in air-mass. The CFS-V2 lately has shifted the colder air out of the United states in line with a normal winter from my latest observations of it today. For now though the pattern seem to indicate that it will remain that areas north of Virginia will see the greatest amount of the cooler air.

Does that mean you will get no snow? No, I am saying i expect you to receive around average winter precipitation. To be in the Winter Battle zone i believe you will see more slop storms than you will see actual snow events. This areas will be from southern Virginia to Southern Kentucky and Northern Tennessee. Things may change but Im leaning on the side of a little to mild for a snowy winter over the majority of the Southeast. Around Average seems closer to about right for you guys right now. Questions? Leave them bellow and I will try and get back to them as soon as possible.

P.S. The one thing that brings some hope for the southeast, is that according to data, the past few months it actually has been cooler than average there and warmer than average in the northeast. My main point though is looking at where the coolest air is coming. As we will see in the upcoming week that the coolest of the air will remain in the north. That is the pattern most concerning. This is part of why it is so iffy on any forecast right now for the southeast. Out of all the regions, this is where the most of my doubts come into play. The forecast for this area is moreso close to 51% confident in Cooler than average and not as snowy and 49% Much cooler than average, Ice, Snow, slop storms (Winter battle Zone). This picture will become clearer as we head into the Fall season.

201307-201307

About the author

Dante' Brown-Royal

Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

17 comments

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  1. Generator Power
    Generator Power
    Thanks Dante’, I will be watching for future updates. Hopefully we’ll get some good snowfall in Arkansas this year. Fingers crossed : )
  2. Lee
    Just read the outlook for the southeast. I live in the Smoky Mountains of east Tennessee and our weather tends to differ from the lower elevations nearby. For instance, Pigeon Forge is less than an hour from Knoxville, but due to elevation can have very different weather. Does your outlook include elevation as a consideration? My rural home is nearly 1,800 feet above sea level.

    Thanks for the work you are doing! :)

  3. Wasi
    @Dante
    Hey Dante, do you know where Eric has been? He hasn’t been on the site for a while. I had a question about the tropics so that’s the reason why I’m asking.
  4. Dante' Brown-Royal
    Dante' Brown-Royal
    @Wasi, no im not sure where he has been but likely has personal matters he is attending too. What was your question?
  5. Wasi
    @Dante, This is a question about the tropics that I asked to Eric.

    “Eric, When is the tropics becoming active? I have been hearing that this hurricane season has been quite slow. Are you still thinking that this season is above normal and worse than 2008 because I remember that the first hurricane formed in July and then by August it got more active. This season had no hurricanes so far in August and I’m hearing this season is running below average at this point. Do you still think that this season is going to be above normal to get 3-5 major hurricanes? The atlantic is still not favorable for development next week due to the dry air and strong winds from the west. We could still get one hurricane to hit the east coast like last year even if it’s not above normal season”.

  6. Wasi
    @Dante
    It’s okay if you can’t answer and it doesn’t matter anyway because this hurricane season has been below average and slow. This season was predicted to very active season but it turns out it’s not as active as it was predicted earlier. I’ve heard Eric saying it was going to be an active season but I think he is not here to talk about hurricanes since it’s been a slow season so far. It’s just not possible to have 3-5 major hurricanes as I have heard from other blogs.
  7. Derickeugeneree
    It might be caused by el-neno I heard it formed and came
  8. Dante' Brown-Royal
    Dante' Brown-Royal
    @Wasi ima get back to you. Sorry I have been really really busy
  9. Wasi
    @Derickeugeneree
    It is at neutral enso. There would be more hurricanes it were an el nino this year. It’s at least a good thing that no hurricanes have formed and impacted the US and hopefully continues on for the rest of the month. Eric needs to back off his prediction otherwise it could be a bust forecast. Many meteorologists have admitted that it’s been a slow season but Eric is not going admit it and he still probably going to say it’s going to be active season like what Henry Margusity was saying. I think that’s the reason why he has not come to the site for the past two weeks. It is quite unusual to have quiet season at the peak season.
  10. chintan
    Really Freaking Hot September Temperature in Atlanta its 90 or above. Tired of hot so really need brutal cold and extremely snowfall this year!
  11. Derickeugeneree
    El Niño causes more wind shear in the Atlantic and decreases the amount of tropical systems it might be neutral but it might be more towards the El Niño side
  12. Cindy Nash
    Really have enjoyed your weather comments. Have you ever compared folk lores to actual weather events? For example, I have always heard to count the fogs you have in August that would be the snow fall in the winter or the number of spider webs in the fall indicates the amount of snowfall you will have in the winter. Just wondered if some of these lores ring true!!! Thanks again, looking forward to more of your weather comments.
  13. JZ
    I have had tons of frogs and tons of spider webs. Bring on a snowy winter in the ATL area.
  14. chintan
    Atlanta is hell city coz freaking hot makes people lives miserable so plan to move new york state!
  15. Jeanne
    The word you meant to write is “below” with one “l”. You put “bellow” on the map and above and it means to yell loudly.
  16. LuckyTN
    LuckyTN
    Living up here in Trade, TN, most of us hometown folks believe we’re going to have a hard winter. The temperatures have been, for the most part, cooler than normal beginning in June up to now. We’ve already had temperatures drop into the mid/upper 30s. Another sign is that the hummingbirds left mid September. Normally, they stick around until the first or second week of October. Finally, the leaf change for autumn has been rather quick. All these nature signs have happened in the past and foretell a cold and snowy winter. Only time will tell.
  17. debbie
    WILL THE SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE SEE ANY ICE OR SNOW IN MARCH 2014

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