When it comes to winter of 2013-2014, this is the region that saw the most dramatic of shifts when it comes to this outlook. Areas like Atlanta that were in the Winter Battle Zone are now out of it as that area has been shifted farther to the North. A lot of people have been wondering why? Well look at the pattern that we have been in for a while, it is in line with this forecast where the cooler air comes from Canada but does not make it all the way down into the southeast. While temperatures cool down its not a massive difference in air-mass. The CFS-V2 lately has shifted the colder air out of the United states in line with a normal winter from my latest observations of it today. For now though the pattern seem to indicate that it will remain that areas north of Virginia will see the greatest amount of the cooler air.
Does that mean you will get no snow? No, I am saying i expect you to receive around average winter precipitation. To be in the Winter Battle zone i believe you will see more slop storms than you will see actual snow events. This areas will be from southern Virginia to Southern Kentucky and Northern Tennessee. Things may change but Im leaning on the side of a little to mild for a snowy winter over the majority of the Southeast. Around Average seems closer to about right for you guys right now. Questions? Leave them bellow and I will try and get back to them as soon as possible.
P.S. The one thing that brings some hope for the southeast, is that according to data, the past few months it actually has been cooler than average there and warmer than average in the northeast. My main point though is looking at where the coolest air is coming. As we will see in the upcoming week that the coolest of the air will remain in the north. That is the pattern most concerning. This is part of why it is so iffy on any forecast right now for the southeast. Out of all the regions, this is where the most of my doubts come into play. The forecast for this area is moreso close to 51% confident in Cooler than average and not as snowy and 49% Much cooler than average, Ice, Snow, slop storms (Winter battle Zone). This picture will become clearer as we head into the Fall season.