The Quiet Storm… Why So Significant? Signs Of Winter Pattern?

map_specnews32_ltst_4namus_enus_320x180The coastal low/nor’easter that has been effecting the east coast for the last 3 Days and keeping temperatures down, has been a nuisance for some. And others  say ah its just a regular fall rain. Well here is something that I noticed that we really need to keep an eye on.

When you look at the Nor’easter that is currently effecting us, it is spawned by a perfectly set negative NAO. Which is blocking over Greenland. The blocking is keeping the storm from moving anywhere too fast, which is why we are dealing with 3-5 days of rain. The NAO actually since the start of October has really been Negative, and aside from the first few days of the month, the temperatures have been at least average to bellow average in the mid-Atlantic and into the northeast..

Now why is this so significant. Well you really in the months of October and November want to look and see the weather pattern you are getting into, since in some scenarios that continues into the winter. The Trend is your friend. The last time as Accuweather Henry Margisuty pointed out in his video earlier today that we had blocking like this  (NAO) (High Over Northeast Canada) was in the winter of 2010-2011. Note in that winter it was fairly snowy in Philadelphia, New York, and Boston. The prior year we also saw a similar set up to what we are seeing now. (Granted one was fall one was winter) This pattern set up earlier in the year of 2009-2010 and stayed until Late February. Now based off of this storm, it looks closer to the blocking of winter of 2009-2010. Why do i say so, well the storm is really being blocked from bringing in to much northward progression, so really if you are anywhere north of new york city you really are not going to be effected by this coastal low, besides the tides and those who are on the beach. Point is if this were winter or even December you would be seeing places like DC, Balt, Phily, And southeastern PA get hammered with feet of snow. Look at the temperatures in those areas which have averaged a good 5-10 degrees bellow normal with this one system. One knock on the past two winters has when we did have storms develop and ride up the coast there was no colder air to feed into it, thus a lot of slop storms and a lot more snow to rain events. This will have to be monitored through this month and November to see if this develops into a trend or if this storm is just an out-lier.

Now here is just a little forecasting tip, whenever you see a negative nao start heading towards neutral that is sometimes an indication that a storm system is brewing in that time period. So on and around Oct 18 look for weather of some sort to effect the eastern half of the nation. Another coastal storm maybe? The conditions are there, but we will have to watch it for later developments.

BATTLE OF THE SEASONS COMING UP OVER NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS:

I have looked at the long range models for the past couple of days looking for some sort of consistency when it comes to the weather pattern. I have come to this conclusion though. This month we will see some wild temperature swings. Originally the cooler than average air will have a hard time making it past the mid-west but it will and will primarily effect those from Virginia North. Dont get me wrong, the southeast will cool down but it will be closer to average temperatures than anything else. The GFS has been consistent with the factor that a few cooler than average shots of air will come down from Canada over the next couple of weeks, and to be honest, looking at the negative NAO it should not be much of a surprise.

Now I am not saying that we will have a winter of 2009-2010 or 2010-1011 but just to realize the pattern we are in now resembles those years and to keep an eye out to see if this pattern will continue.  This is the time of year to start watching things like this.

Nao looks to remain negative for a while

Nao looks to remain negative for a while

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

20 comments on “The Quiet Storm… Why So Significant? Signs Of Winter Pattern?

  1. Great post Dante’, you bring up some excellent point! I do agree with all of this and it’s defiantly signs of whats possibly to come! I’ve been looking into like the winters of 2010-11 and 1962/63, which both have some few things in common with high amounts of snow and cold. It seems like their is some pattern like every 4 years, that winter seems to top all the 3 prior to it, and it’s the 4th winter from 2010-11 so thats another thing to keep in mind. Anyway, it feels that we will see strong blocking this winter, which could help us along with the other players. Great post, good to see you back again!
  2. @ Armando
    I’ve been relatively busy this past week, now that I have a little free time, here’s the link to the accuweather.com winter weather forum, lots of interesting & cool information here to keep you entertained,
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30243&st=980

    (in case u can’t tell, Andrew from the Weathercentre blogs here as does Severe Wx blog, one of my twitter followers (link to his site) http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/

    I think you would also like this forum from americanwx

    http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

    The main page to their weather forecasting forum page is available here
    http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/20-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/

    Now, something I have been looking into of late is the AO, something peculiar I noticed the other day in looking at the index since 1950 (link) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

    I took note that during the early-mid 1960s, late 1960s, & in the early mid 1990s that the AO went through periods of anomalous negative & positive activity. This seems very strange to me given that the AMO went through a flip to the cold cycle in 1964, & 1969, coinciding with the extended & rather anomalous period of -AO that occurred right before the cycle flip, and before the warm flip of the AMO in 1995, for several years, the AO was strongly biased positive. I think a potential reason to this somewhat unusual behavior in the AO can be attributed to the AO’s strong relationship & coupling with the NAO which is strongly related to & influenced by the AMO. Now, looking at the graph I posted in my most recent post where I showed the general winter NAO behavior since 1950 (link)
    http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/season.JFM_.nao_.gif

    and I noted in my post that “The -NAO regime is given even more support by the general decadal trend in NAO, in which as the AMO turns cold as it did around 1965, during the course of the cold cycle, the NAO tends to trend more positive with time, but look how once the Atlantic entered its positive phase in 1995…The NAO has since tanked & with still likely at least a few more years of warm AMO left to go, makes sense that overall trend of negative NAO should continue for the next several winters.”

    I just so happened to recently to stumble upon this VERY interesting scientific paper which suggests that there isn’t a strong statistical relationship between the AMO & NAO on a normal timescale, but when you lag the AMO by 11 years, the relationship becomes quite strong. This seems to imply to me that trends in the NAO seem to precede what the AMO eventually does later down the road (in this case, that lag period is approximately 11 years)
    http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/64/12/35/PDF/NorthAtlanticOscillations-I.pdf

    I have started to take some thought to this & I’m trying to figure out why the AMO lags the NAO like this and I suspect that since the atmosphere has 1100x less the amount of heat capacity of the ocean, changes in TSI (which from what I have seen do correlate to the AMO (link) ) http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/AMO%20vs%20TSI.jpg
    Which among other things lead to changes in the pattern over the Atlantic, the atmosphere would be the first to respond to these changes since it has a significantly lower heat energy budget. As a result, during periods in which the AMO is nearing the precipice of a cold cycle, the NAO will trend negative for an extended period of time & with considerable strength. A consequence of this is that the Atlantic, (much like what occurs over the Pacific where la nina tends to charge heat over the equatorial Pacific by increasing the amount of incoming solar radiation due to anomalous high pressure dominating much of the region that causes a general reduction in ambient cloud cover, whereas the opposite is true when el nino is prominent, where heat is released into the global weather system), has a lot of heat taken out of the tropics thanks to the -NAO favoring blocking over Greenland/Iceland that in turn causes anomalous troughing over the mid-latitudes that weakens the northeasterly trade winds thus leading to significantly warmer water in the tropics. This release of heat is generally amplified by the -NAO, & once the Atlantic reaches or exceeds an equilibrium, the NAO will return more to its “normal” state, comparatively speaking & the Atlantic will usually be left significantly cooler as a result, leading to a cold AMO, & the opposite can be implied when the NAO/AO goes through an extended period of positive activity ahead of a warm phase of the Atlantic. Interesting information for sure, & given the lag in the NAO to AMO & the period at which the NAO crashed in the late 2000s, as well as the natural overall timescale that a specific AMO cycle lasts (generally somewhere around 25-30 years or so), this does suggest to me that we are likely within several years of seeing the cold AMO cycle return (should do so probably around 2015-2020) Also knowing how the AO/NAO behaves in advance of an oncoming cold flip in the AMO (anomalously negative for an extended period of time), & that although we are in a cold PDO, any el nino that tries to come on usually brings a brings a brutal winter in the eastern/central US (like what was observed in 2009-10 & in the late 1970s), it’s definitely plausible to think that if we can get an el nino in our current cold PDO cycle to coincide with an anomalous crash of the AO/NAO deep into negative territory that’s typically found in advance of a cold AMO, along with a continuing decrease in solar activity as we advance throughout this decade, that although this year may not be the “one” per say, a few “blockbuster” winters may indeed be on the horizon. Interesting times are ahead for sure.

  3. Eric, I hope that you’re wrong about your thoughts on this winter. You got the hurricane season forecast completely wrong that got busted along with other forecasters. So there is no reason to believe that this winter is going to be blowtorch and another snow drought especially for washington dc. A lot can change between now and december and we could get a good winter better than last year. The pattern is going to change soon and it will be colder than average for the midwest and finally the east by late october as Andrew pointed out which I agree with. +PNA and the -NAO are coming together which is predicted to be. Mid atlantic could be getting the first snow in late November.
  4. @ Wasi
    Well, one can hope, but can you blame me for putting out the forecast that I made? No, because month after month I put out evidence from sunspot cycles going back to 1880 connecting hurricane landfalls, 400mb temperature, Indian Ocean Dipole, Sahel rainfall, etc., & yeah I got it wrong, but what evidence would you have used then to justify the season was going to bust? I know many resort to playing the “dry air” card, but that’s not necessarily the “cause” of the Atlantic’s problems, in fact, the only factor that I may have given some consideration to if I had know its implications then was the multi yr la nina influence in shutting down the tropics, but how would I have known another year without an el nino, even as we head into the fall was coming given seemingly “unanimous” guidance that suggested at least warm neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific? Now you see the quandary I was in, and the only thing I can say I learned after this forecast bust was to be as unbiased as possible, perhaps because I was biased towards looking for things that only supported a dangerous & destructive hurricane season that I didn’t look at other things that would potentially go against my forecast (there weren’t very many, multi yr la nina & the Atlantic SST distribution once we entered the heart of the hurricane season weakening the Hadley Cell one of the few things I could see as reasons to dispute my forecast then). Thus, when I look at this upcoming winter, instead of being like most other forecasters(we know who they are) who try to predict a cold & snowy winter just about every year in the eastern US and after seeing my hurricane season predictions fail, I’m taking a policy of being completely unbiased when making a forecast. Yes, Andrew does have evidence to support his idea that the pattern will turn colder by late October as he has the western Pacific typhoon recurve teleconnection (which I discussed when I first started posting here last fall) & the NAO going negative as a result of the MJO propagating eastward across the Pacific through phases 6-8 of the MJO (albeit fairly weak at best) to back it up, but I mentioned to him and Cody Fields on twitter that it’s not a game-set-match for eastern US cold despite the strong model support and other factors lining Why? Well, while the pattern under a set-up where we have a recurving typhoon east of Japan is favorable to some cold, we also have a typhoon at almost the exact same time crashing into southeast Asia, which actually leads to an opposite teleconnection 8-10 days later in the eastern US, where instead of troughing, being favored, a storm crashing into SE Asia forces the pressures to rise across SE Asia, which strengthens the Pacific jet forcing a trough over Siberia, in turn favoring ridging over the north Pacific near the International Dateline & an Alaskan vortex with an associated trough down western North America (sounds like a classic -PDO), this leads to substantial ridging in the eastern US.
    Now I realize that we’ll have these two opposite patterns fighting against each other in combination with the NAO, so yes I do support the pattern turning cold later in October, however, given the cold PDO & the fact that an Alaska ridge, which are known to be transient in nature, will be helping to drive this pattern, any eastern US cold will be comparatively short lived & nowhere near to the extent of what should affect the central US, as the southeast US ridge, commonplace in -PDOs, will try to fight off any incoming cold air masses. Thus, a cold pattern will more than likely occur in the eastern US in later October, however that pattern, given what’s at hand should be short lived & October as a whole should end up being rather warm for the eastern US, which jives with the -PDO & currently unfavorable QBO. In addition, looking at the US temperature composites for the SON time period for the MJO, phases 7, 8, & even 1, which we will be end for the rest of October, actually produce a blowtorch warm pattern across the eastern US with some cold trying to penetrate into the plains, which is a pattern I strongly agree with.
    (MJO temp composite for SON)
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/SON/combined_image.png
    (MJO forecast)
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
  5. @Eric

    I hope that this pattern holds off for another few years, because, I am planning to go to college at the University of Oklahoma in 2 years. I don’t think this will be another warm winter for the east.

    -Scott Reinhardt

  6. @ Scott Reinhardt & Wasi
    Well, I don’t know what evidence perhaps you have to show us it will be a cold winter in the east? (would like to hear your reasoning). Anyway, as I told Armando, my post gave “preliminary” ideas for the winter, they should NOT be taken as my final forecast (there’s a good reason why they’re called preliminary ideas), rather this forecast I will try to use as a gauge to compare an adjust to when I finalize my ideas right before the official start of winter in December. So, if you don’t happen to like my forecast, that’s ok, because I guarantee you that some sort of changes will be necessary from now until then as the factors & conditions at hand become more clear to me (hopefully by then the government shut-down is over, really hoping so because I really would like to see NOAA ESRL back up & running.) & I can make a generally “more accurate” forecast. However, at this point in time, I do not see conditions lining up for a “blockbuster” winter (you need a lot more than just a slightly negative NAO & QBO to support that, with ENSO not looking to play much of a role this winter at neutral & the Atlantic warm AMO tripole appearing rather confused, allows -PDO to take advantage, question will be exactly how strong is this factor as we go into winter, perhaps we witness a relatively rare instance (although unlikely at this point) where the PDO weakens), nor do I see conditions being so unfavorable that we take on nearly the “torchy” look that we observed in 2011-12.
  7. @ Scott Reinhardt
    Another warm winter for the east? I’m sorry, but I have to disagree with you there, the only place you could make the case that it was warmer than normal last winter is in extreme northern New England, the rest of the eastern US was relatively near-normal temperature wise. The early winter blowtorch pattern (yeah, some people thought I was crazy then for saying that winter would actually come last yr, not going to say any names, they know who they are) was generally erased by the persistent & rather strong cold air masses that attacked late winter in February & March. http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/compday.C9k4003wcK.gif
  8. Wow did anyone see what the GFS is showing at hour 288 it’s a monster of a storm. I know it’s a model and long ways out but just take a look at that lol down to 984 millibars
  9. @ Derickeugeneree & other bloggers
    Yeah, I saw that, & actually the GFS bombs that storm out to 980mb, but I’ve noticed for the last several runs how the model was trying to at least hint at some sort of storm system in the east-central US in that timeframe, I think its just that now the model is probably starting to “see” the energy a lot better, & of course the GFS’s bias to transfer energy too quickly into the mid-latitudes, thus resulting an easterly bias, is probably good reason why we haven’t seen this solution come up earlier. The ECMWF also shows an interesting feature http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
    around the same time frame. It would appear to me that the models are leaving behind a piece of energy associated with the trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska & merge it with another piece of energy that rounds the periphery of the transient Alaskan ridge, thus leading to split pieces of jet energy with one laying in the subtropical branch, the other diving southeastward out of northwestern North America, a classic phasing situation where the subtropical energy drives out ahead of the polar jet feature, forcing the trough to take on a negative tilt. This type of trough does have some support given the typhoon recurvature that’s going to occur in a few days near Japan, & there’s usually a teleconnection to an eastern US trough, but we also have typhoon Nari crashing into southeast Asia leading to an opposite teleconnection, so the pattern more than likely will be a compromise. Also given the MJO tendency for the SON period to retain warmth over the southeastern US, the east-based -NAO which favors some residual ridging along the eastern seaboard & the -PDO pattern we’re well entrenched in, my intuition says based on these factors that, if we are to see any significant storm system, it’s likely going to be further west than what the GFS is currently showing & more towards the ECMWF, with some sort of storm trying to crank up over the Ohio Valley & Great Lakes. Even if we were to get a storm system to come into a favorable position off the eastern seaboard, snow for the i-95 corridor & anywhere east of the Appalachians would be highly unlikely, with snow, if any, confined to the higher elevations of the Appalachians, southeastern Canada, & perhaps northern New England, but that’s considering we see a storm system take the classic E coast US track, which I currently don’t favor given the -PDO, MJO tendency, east based -NAO, & the GFS tendency to have a profound easterly bias.
  10. @ All bloggers
    Yeah, I know some of you may not like my preliminary winter forecast because I don’t show a whole lot of cold & snow over the eastern US (however its a general picture anyway, in such a pattern like this we are bound to see some periods of cold & snow, this doesn’t look, at least from what I can tell, nowhere near as warm as 2011-12), & that’s mainly due to the unfavorable -PDO & QBO signals. However, something I’ve come across in my hurricane ACE & MJO research is that when I compared the hurricane ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy- takes the square of the wind speed in knots of a tropical cyclone with winds greater than or equal to 35 knots in 5 knot increments & sums those squared max wind speeds over consecutive 6 hour periods) of the eastern Pacific & the Atlantic since the start of the warm AMO in 1995 was that in periods in which the eastern Pacific ACE was greater than the Atlantic as was observed in 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009, those following winters featured an el nino in the equatorial Pacific. This year the east Pacific ACE is significantly higher than the Atlantic ACE, so there certainly is a glimmer of hope & optimism still left to see an el nino this winter, but it’s definitely fading with time. Of course, one must consider that this connection works when the AMO is warm, as I noted earlier in this blog, there are some signs that the AMO is nearing the beginning of its cold cycle, so we’ll see what happens.
  11. Eric, I do agree with you that -PDO can kill this winter pattern for mid atlantic even though if NAO was negative and the PDO has more power over the NAO if it stays negative. Do you think we could see the PDO weakening by december or is it unlikely to happen? And if that does not happen, could it weaken a bit close to neutral by second half of the winter like the month of february since you said it can be a slow start to the winter.
  12. I know this isn’t a weather question but do all sqaralls walk across telephone poll wires quite Alfton? Today I seen one doing that.
  13. @ Wasi
    That’s a question I’m trying to give a conclusive answer to at this point, however the odds of seeing the PDO weakening or undergoing complete reversal to warm mode by the winter are relatively unlikely given that a PDO signal, either positive or negative usually (not always) maintains if not intensifies its signal throughout the fall & as winter approaches. Here’s the data I gathered from JISAO, & what I’ve done is I’m going to use years that generally begin around 1950 (1948 to be exact, which is when NOAA ESRL usually begins) because the data is much more reliable. Now, the criteria I’ve established here is that given the past few months, the PDO signal has been above -1 (fairly decent -PDO signal), I set a criteria in which during the months of Jun-Aug (which are currently the latest available 3 months in the JISAO data), I looked for all years that had at least one month that had the PDO index reach or exceed -1, and according to what I have found this has occurred 24 times since 1948 to include the following years:
    1948
    1949
    1950
    1951
    1952
    1955
    1956
    1961
    1962
    1963
    1964
    1967
    1970
    1971
    1972
    1973
    1975
    1978
    1991
    1999
    2000
    2008
    2011
    2012
    Of these 24 years, only 2 (about 8% of the data) (1991 & 2000, both generally near the warm cycle of the PDO) were able to see the -PDO during the summer undergo complete reversal by winter, thus changes its implications on the pattern. Now, the vast majority of these years, as I anticipated, were at least able to maintain their -1 PDO values into the following winter, 17 of the 24 years in fact were able to do so (71%), and of those 17 years, 6 of them actually observed stronger -PDO signals one the winter approached (35%), while of the 22 years that had the PDO not reverse, 5 of the years (23%), including last year, observed a weaker -PDO signal by wintertime.
    Thus, based on the data, the chances of the PDO either weakening as we go into winter, like what happened last year or undergoing complete reversal (next to impossible given we’re not in a more favorable +PDO cycle), thus limiting the negating -PDOs influence on the eastern US winter pattern is 32%, not too terribly likely. Thus, although I can not rule out the potential for a weaker PDO come winter, certainly the Atlantic-East Pacific hurricane ACE relationship has now left a glimmer of uncertainty I didn’t have before in regards to ENSO, as this year the eastern Pacific hurricane ACE was higher than the Atlantic’s in a warm AMO (our +AMO began in 1995) and EVERY time this has happened since 1995 (includes years like 1997, 2002, 2006, & 2009), an el nino came the following winter, combine this with the complete lack of el nino we’ve had for 3 years, pushing 4 now, and that I know sooner rather than later an el nino is coming by 2014 (may not be this winter though), it does give me some optimism that a weak el nino could still possibly form by winter, although that’s looking much less likely as time progresses. In general, looks like we are likely to have to deal with the cold PDO this upcoming winter, however, the resulting relatively warm/dry biased pattern doesn’t mean the entire sucks, rather I do foresee that the pattern will at times try & break down, especially given that a stratospheric warming event combined with a -PDO signal means cold air will be getting thrown at N. America, the question for me is how far to the south & east does this cold air penetrate & that will be somewhat dependent on the strength & behavior of the PDO. Be interesting to see what happens as we’re in crunch time now in October, usually when many of the oscillations & conditions begin to “show their hand” per say as to what the upcoming winter will hold. Still some uncertainty here, but if there’s one thing that is certain, I do anticipate some change in my winter ideas from now until the start of winter, but the exact degree at which necessary changes I will need to make are still up in the air at this point in time.
  14. @ Derickeugeneree
    I see squirrels every once in a while doing that, of course it depends on the thickness & the amount of shock-resistant material (i.e. rubber) put on the wire as well as whether or not a squirrel is forced up a telephone wire for practical or unknown reasons can determine their frequency of doing that aforementioned behavior. In case you may be wondering, no I don’t know of any old weather folklore that somehow links to squirrels traveling on telephone wires. :)
  15. Hey Eric, well that is very interesting news and what you researched defiantly surprised me. Well ever since you made that statement about the PDO, no one including me wanted to believe it, but i can tell you my mind has been changed because of few things such as looking into on my own and reading other blogs with meteorologists like you. A few are saying the same thing including andrew so yea sadly i believe it. I’m surprised though why joe hasn’t really said anything about it, i’m hoping he will eventually. Your comment though, has given me more hope this winter because with the AMO changing toward cold cycle and correct me if i’m wrong, but you said that it’s beginning to change and if so then their is a chance that a nino will develop? So then even the AMO has a connection with the ENSO? Man i just keep learning new things everyday lol! So then i’m hoping their is a chance plus the research you did with the recent years which had the -PDO, but unfortunately like only 2 or something like that had the reverse flip going into winter. So were their like years just like this year with the PDO this strongly negative, but weaken by winter or gone toward neutral? You do seem to give that a chance also much could chanve between now and december, really hoping that it will weaken! Also with the other oscillations, hope they can play a huge role and really help us out! So now, i’ve seen the GFS for like the 26th, so now their could be a small percentage of snow for northeast. Now the nao and ao could be in a good position, but here’s the problem. For some reason the past octobers, which has snow storms lead to a winter with below avg snow which i don’t know why and would like to know that connection, but last years’ winter was like avg even with the snowstorm in october, which was so epic lol! So their is a chance if us getting snow, but now i feel like i’d would rather have it wait until november or later lol because i’m afraid of us getting rarely anything on top of that, the -PDO! So their is a lot on the “playing field”, but just need to see what happens as why get closer to winter!
  16. @ Armando
    Well, I think the AMO is changing, but its not like the other teleconnections which can have large week to week variations, the AMO tends to show itself over several years time, but I honestly don’t think we’re going to see the AMO flip this year ( I think u may have misunderstood the underlying point I was trying to get at in my response to you, which I completely understand as I’m sure there are very few out there who may understand where I’m coming from, the fact that you can generally understand me well is awesome in of itself) However, there was a purpose to the research I was showing you, in particular, the -NAO crash, & remember what the data said about that, there’s usually an 11 year lag between the time at which the NAO tanks negative while the AMO is still in the warm cycle, before the AMO responds by also going into its associative negative (cold) state & that was as I explained earlier likely due to the fact that given outside influences, the atmosphere & its related oscillations are more likely to respond first to changes as opposed to the ocean because the atmosphere has a comparatively lower heat energy budget when weighed against the oceans. I want you to look once again at this JFM mean NAO graph (link)
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/JFM_season_nao_index.shtml
    Notice that the black line which takes the 5-year running mean of the NAO, look how right before 1955, somewhere around 1952-53, the NAO generally flipped into its negative cycle. Now, when you compare that to the AMO, we experienced a flip to the cold AMO in 1964, which is about 11-12 years after the flip to the general negative cycle of the NAO. Now, look at the next time the black line reaches neutral & generally enters the positive cycle of the NAO, which generally occurred in the early 1980s, & given that the AMO flipped to its warm phase in 1995, that generally gives us a little over 11 years between the time at which the overall cycle of the NAO precedes a flip in the AMO cycle. Thus, when we look at the current situation, the NAO appears to have trended negative somewhere around 2008-2009 or so, thus about 11 years from now would put us around 2020 to see the next flip in the AMO. However, given the rather low solar cycles, this could happen earlier than that. Essentially what I’m trying to do here when I talk about the AMO flip is that I’m trying to give you some signs & tricks I’ve started to pick up on to predict the AMO (which is supposedly unpredictable, although that’s rightfully so as we still don’t seem to completely understand many of the fundamental mechanism that are driving it), not saying that the AMO flip is going to occur this year. However, given the signs & that before the last AMO flip the AO tanked deeply and consistently negative for several years, this is something to potentially look out for in the distant future to gauge where we are in the AMO cycle. What I also meant by saying that on the horizon, based on this information, & the fact that el nino winters that come off multi yr la ninas in the cold PDO are notorious for being quite cold & snowy, if this were to somehow work in tandem with the AO-AMO theory I have, its plausible to think that over the next several years & before the end of the decade, there are probably going to be a few “blockbuster” winters lurking, potentially on par with the east coast poundings observed in 2009-10 & 2010-11 (obviously one could intuitively think that some good winters do lay down the road somewhere based on them having low probability, but still having some sort of regular occurrence)

    As far as the PDO goes, yeah I actually threw out some years before 1948, in fact there were four years which actually had a complete flip to warm PDO after seeing PDO values of at least -1 during the period Jun-Aug, like what’s being observed this year, those 4 years are (1925, 1922, 1920, & 1904), but I don’t consider them nearly as reliable considering we didn’t have nearly the amount of observation back then to correctly assess the PDO, not to mention when one looks at the overall PDO cycle during those flips & the two more recent ones that occurred in 1991 & 2000, all of these happened generally in the warm cycle of the PDO (link)
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/library/pics/PDO-index-since-1900.jpg

    of course, we are in the overall negative cycle of the PDO, thus no complete flips to a brief warm PDO spike after being at least decently negative in the preceding Jun-Aug period have happened in the cold PDO. Now, the chances of seeing an el nino although I think are quite small, I’m definitely not as certain as I was earlier when I was making my post as the Atlantic’s relationship to East Pacific hurricane ACE in the warm AMO has planted seeds of doubt in my mind in regards to us seeing no el nino, In fact, since 1995, ALL years in which the east Pacific hurricane ACE was greater than the Atlantic (1997, 2002, 2006, & 2009), an el nino came the following winter, & as we’re rounding out this hurricane season, the eastern Pacific ACE is significantly higher than the Atlantic (E Pac hurricane ACE: 52 Atlantic: 28). Now, this doesn’t necessarily guarantee el nino, but the fact that the east Pacific is so active relative to the Atlantic is definitely at least a sign that the east pacific is trying to produce el nino or “nino-like” conditions, & it will be a question whether or not we see this for the winter, but given other factors at this time, I favor a neutral ENSO pattern.

    Now, I have some cool links I’m going through & I thought I’d like to share these with you, & yes they’re all about your favorite, winter of course, lol.

    Here’s a good video from Steve Di Martino (he is a professional meteorologist who specific weather forecasting for the area from Philadelphia to New York City, with special focus on New Jersey) talking a little about winter & some of the factors that go into it, I think you’ll like it
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svwkEBvVc0I

    You may want to save this link here, he does daily morning videos every single day on the weather forecast (short, medium, & even long term with explanations on the pattern) for the New Jersey area, & I think you’ll take very strong interest in seeing these
    http://www.nynjpaweather.com/category/dailyvideoforecastdiscussion/

    This paper, I’m sure you may have at one point heard mentioned, well it talks about Siberian snowcover in October & its relationship to stratospheric warming & AO/NAO, a little bit easier to read than some of these other scientific papers I have coming below
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf

    Speaking of snowfall anomalies, this paper goes into more detail about ENSO, NAOm & northern hemisphere snowfall anomalies for the 2009-10 winter, it’s also relatively easy to understand compared to what I’ve seen floating around the internet
    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/seager/Seager_etal_snow_GRL.pdf

    I would definitely read this here talks about QBO & is relationship to stratospheric warming events, thus arctic outbreaks, it’s relatively easy to understand & goes through many of the basics here & is quite interesting if I say so myself
    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/

    This scientific paper talks about the QBO, highly recommend reading through part of my post where I talk QBO before reading this to maybe refresh your mind on what is being talked about in here because it’s an oscillation that can be a bit overbearing to handle, I know this first-hand as I’m still trying to grasp onto the QBO & its effects on the northern hemisphere weather pattern
    http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf

    This scientific paper I happened to find when looking back through the archives in the 2013-14 winter weather accuweather forum, was posted by Andrew, talks about CGT (Circumglobal teleconnection) generally gives a basis to potentially use certain factors in the summer to predict oscillations & certain weather patterns several months down the road towards winter, interesting stuff, I definitely need to read through this when I get a chance.
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3473.1

    This paper talks about the AMO, & Atlantic SST patterns in relation to the NAO & other related phenomena
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-3270.1?noFrame=true

    This link I would definitely save, VERY interesting information in here & its rather complex, even for me to understand, but you think I’m smart? Ha, wait til you see the stuff on this page, WOW, my mind was blown just skimming through this
    http://www.westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&page=1

    Hope you liked this response, took me several hours to find all this stuff & I hope you enjoy going through all this very cool information & learn a lot, because I certainly am.

  17. Wow, thats some great stuff and i’m still continuing reading the rest of the articles. I just learned like so much with the stratosphere warming along the NAO-NINO duo, thats defiantly interesting to me! Just love how things “connect” in a way, but unfortunately their won’t be a nice connection of the two this winter, but most likely next winter! Well as you’ve said their is a dim chance of nino conditions occurring helping the east coast and we do have time on our side for things to change, which i’m relying on. I do hope though, that when the ridge is battling the troughs, that the battle zone will be further south like southern mid-atlantic, but i’ll be honest i know this winter won’t be the “one”, but we will have out fair share or snow and cold. I’m starting to get a better idea of this winter and i feel like once end of Jan and entering Feb, that is when like the northeast will get very snowy and colder and maybe a few big decent snows. Just have to wait and see and i’ve taken a look at the gfs, it does seem to have some mischief around like the 28th or so. It shows that 32 degree mark like further east toward ocean so any precip could fall as wet snow, but as i said i’d rather it wait untill winter because it just seems everytime it snows in october, we get below avg snow.
  18. Fantastic website you have here but I was wanting to know if you knew of any
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