When you look at the weather pattern going across the united states and setting up, it actually is in support of there forecast. I have noticed a lot of people saying “No this is wrong or how can that be?” Well when you look at there forecast it does not spell no snow for areas in the east. When reading over there articles it motions that the worst of winter will be in the Midwest. That’s the “WORST” of winter, that does not mean it will not show up at all like in the winter of 2011-2012.
Now I know I mentioned that the pattern we are in is similar to the winter of 2009-2010 when dealing with the storm that pledged the Mid-Atlantic from about 10/9-10/12/2013. With the same blocking pattern. However what we have also seen this month and what we have seen over the past few is also a southeastern ridge develop at times. This is perfectly indicated on the 12Z model run of the GFS in the long range. And part of why, we keep seeing this cold blast delayed over and over again, While it is making it into the Midwest, it often runs out of steam as it comes east and really never makes it much farther south than Maryland and Northern Virginia and even then its be eroded. Dont get me wrong, it will cool down but not as much as what the midwest does. Also another thing of note, The cold air is in place when moisture does come in the mid-west leading to snow on this model run, where is it not in place? The East and Southeast, where a lot of areas end up seeing rain. Now it is October, BUT if it were winter if the storms set up like this it would spell the same result. Lets take a look at the GFS Long range and illustrate what happens in that model run.
This Is Hour 240 on the 12Z 10/14/2013 run of the GFS model here is after a storm has passed, and in the upper atmosphere temperatures are cold enough for snow, however the moisture by this point has gone, and the very cold air stays primarily north of Virginia and is short lived. The upper-midwest is still slightly cool. Looking at the actual temperatures projected at this time during the model, shows that it does get cool, but it does so briefly and in preivious frames of the model while the cold air was in the mid-west, it was brutal.
Now that is just one example. But another storm system moves down from Canada, and phases cold enough air is in place on this model run for there to be a pretty decent snowstorm in the Midwest. But look at the warm air mas that occupy’s the eastern states. And the ridge over the southeast that forces that warm air northward. This is something that has also occurred at times this month. Look at where the snowfall hits on this model run, Look familiar? Now compare it to Eric’s and Matthews winter outlooks. Look familiar guys?
So my point is, when forecasting you have to look at the good and bad prospective’s on the weather pattern. While most of us here want snow, we have to be realistic. By NO MEANS are we saying that this winter will be a blow torch for the east, but that there will be times this winter especially early that we will notice a southeastern ridge develop and the cooler than average air, finding it hard to make it into the southeast. This is something I also mentioned in my latest update of my winter outlook
So what are my updated Predictions For winter 2013-2014? Well there are a few adjustments and moderation that I did have to make. While I think we will see a continuation of how things ended last winter, I dont think the cold air will get as far south as it did last year. We have seen this over the past few months, As a result I have shifted the battlezone further north and a cooler than average pocket in the west. – See more at: http://weatheradvance.com/2013/09/02/winter-2013-2014-second-outlook/#sthash.awuz2Dho.dpuf
So there you have it. While at times winter may sow some snow, I think this winter will start off a little slow for areas in the mid-Atlantic and northeast and pick up through mid-winter. 2002-2003 winter was this way. We had a little cold and snow in the Northeast and mid-atlantic in December and then more mixed systems, a small storm in January and then Major snow came in February and March. This may happen again. I dont think the winter will be like that, snowfall wise, but Just because it starts off that way does not mean winter is a bust. If there’s something we can tell from looking at October is that areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast you will get your share of snow, BUT you also will more often than not get your share of slop storms (Snow, Sleet, Rain, Mix or all rain storms) And the southeast may see snow, however i think it will be more hard pressed to come by. At least until late winter. My third update on my winter outlook comes at the end of the month and my final update comes in the end of November.
so its not a stretch to see what there forecast show, but in actuality, that looks more likely than a winter outlook showing a lot of snow. I Think Eric and Matthew are onto something, and a trend that I also started picking up on over the summer.
UPDATE: THE 18Z GFS MODEL RUN MOVES THE WHOLE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTHEAST AROUND HOURS 300-336, HOWEVER THIS WAS JUST AN ILLUSTRATION OF HOW THINGS HAVE WORKED THIS MONTH. THIS WILL FLIP FLOP SEVERAL MORE TIMES BEFORE IT IS SET IN STONE.