October Pattern Supports Eric’s & Matthews Winter Outlook

When you look at the weather pattern going across the united states and setting up, it actually is in support of there forecast. I have noticed a lot of people saying “No this is wrong or how can that be?” Well when you look at there forecast it does not spell no snow for areas in the east. When reading over there articles it motions that the worst of winter will be in the Midwest. That’s the “WORST” of winter, that does not mean it will not show up at all like in the winter of 2011-2012.

Now I know I mentioned that the pattern we are in is similar to the winter of 2009-2010 when dealing with the storm that pledged the Mid-Atlantic from about 10/9-10/12/2013. With the same blocking pattern. However what we have also seen this month and what we have seen over the past few is also a southeastern ridge develop at times. This is perfectly indicated on the 12Z model run of the GFS in the long range. And part of why, we keep seeing this cold blast delayed over and over again, While it is making it into the Midwest, it often runs out of steam as it comes east and really never makes it much farther south than Maryland and Northern Virginia and even then its be eroded. Dont get me wrong, it will cool down but not as much as what the midwest does. Also another thing of note, The cold air is in place when moisture does come in the mid-west leading to snow on this model run, where is it not in place? The East and Southeast, where a lot of areas end up seeing rain. Now it is October, BUT if it were winter if the storms set up like this it would spell the same result. Lets take a look at the GFS Long range and illustrate what happens in that model run.

USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_240

GFS 12Z 10/14/13 Hour 240. Colder air in upper atmosphere comes after the storm and moisture is gone, However it does not make it much farther south than Virginia.

Coldest of the air remains in the Mid-West, while cooler air does make it east it moderates. Dont be fooled by the next few frames as these are nigh-time temperatures, not daytime as it is here at hour 216

Coldest of the air remains in the Mid-West, while cooler air does make it east it moderates. Dont be fooled by the next few frames as these are nigh-time temperatures, not daytime as it is here at hour 216

This Is Hour 240 on the 12Z 10/14/2013 run of the GFS model here is after a storm has passed, and in the upper atmosphere temperatures are cold enough for snow, however the moisture by this point has gone, and the very cold air stays primarily north of Virginia and is short lived. The upper-midwest is still slightly cool. Looking at the actual temperatures projected at this time during the model, shows that it does get cool, but it does so briefly and in preivious frames of the model while the cold air was in the mid-west, it was brutal.

Now that is just one example. But another storm system moves down  from Canada, and phases cold enough air is in place on this model run for there to be a pretty decent snowstorm in the Midwest. But look at the warm air mas that occupy’s the eastern states.  And the ridge over the southeast that forces that warm air northward. This is something that has also occurred at times this month. Look at where the snowfall hits on this model run, Look familiar? Now compare it to Eric’s and Matthews winter outlooks. Look familiar guys?

compare

So my point is, when forecasting you have to look at the good and bad prospective’s on the weather pattern. While most of us here want snow, we have to be realistic. By NO MEANS are we saying that this winter will be a blow torch for the east, but that there will be times this winter especially early that we will notice a southeastern ridge develop and the cooler than average air, finding it hard to make it into the southeast. This is something I also mentioned in my latest update of my winter outlook

So what are my updated Predictions For winter 2013-2014? Well there are a few adjustments and moderation that I did have to make. While I think we will see a continuation of how things ended last winter, I dont think the cold air will get as far south as it did last year. We have seen this over the past few months, As a result I have shifted the battlezone further north and a cooler than average pocket in the west. – See more at: http://weatheradvance.com/2013/09/02/winter-2013-2014-second-outlook/#sthash.awuz2Dho.dpuf

So there you have it. While at times winter may sow some snow, I think this winter will start off a little slow for areas in the mid-Atlantic and northeast and pick up through mid-winter. 2002-2003 winter was this way. We had a little cold and snow in the Northeast and mid-atlantic in December and then more mixed systems, a small storm in January and then Major snow came in February and March. This may happen again. I dont think the winter will be like that, snowfall wise, but Just because it starts off that way does not mean winter is a bust. If there’s something we can tell from looking at October is that areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast you will get your share of snow, BUT you also will more often than not get your share of slop storms (Snow, Sleet, Rain, Mix or all rain storms) And the southeast may see snow, however i think it will be more hard pressed to come by. At least until late winter. My third update on my winter outlook comes at the end of the month and my final update comes in the end of November.

so its not a stretch to see what there forecast show, but in actuality, that looks more likely than a winter outlook showing a lot of snow. I Think Eric and Matthew are onto something, and a trend that I also started picking up on over the summer.

UPDATE: THE 18Z GFS MODEL RUN MOVES THE WHOLE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTHEAST AROUND HOURS 300-336, HOWEVER THIS WAS JUST AN ILLUSTRATION OF HOW THINGS HAVE WORKED THIS MONTH. THIS WILL FLIP FLOP SEVERAL MORE TIMES BEFORE IT IS SET IN STONE.

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

17 comments on “October Pattern Supports Eric’s & Matthews Winter Outlook

  1. Thanks Dante, good to see that others are catching on to some of the ideas I have & that you and Matthew are actually trying to forecast the winter here instead of wishcasting for a cold/snowy one which is of course what many would like to see. We still have a long ways to go though before the start of winter & I do anticipate my preliminary winter ideas to change in some way, shape, or form from now until then, exactly what those changes are and their degree is still up in the air at this point
  2. hi there Dante’ Brown-Royal do you think im going to get hammer this winter 2013 2014 i live in southwestard ohio
  3. hi there Dante’ Brown-Royal do you think im go to get hammer this winter 2013 2014 i live in southwestard ohio
  4. Eric I know its a little early to know for sure but is there a small potental for it to snow in chambersburg,pa sometime next week?
  5. @derickeugeneree, yes there is a chance that you could have snow early next week but it is way too early to say it will happen, Also I have a Question for Eric or anybody else that could answer it, is the Atlantic Tripole the same as the AMO
  6. @ Jacob Thome

    Will parsippany, nj get any snow anytime soon? I am a snow lover so I was just asking.
    Thanks, Jordan r

  7. Guys their is a very small chance of it snowing, right now new england is looking good for it. Remember the boundry area in october is still warm, but cold air will be aloft so anything that does fall as snow will melt into rain or possibly wet snow, but no accumulation, not at this point. Going to have to wait as we get closer, but in all honestly we just might have to wait untill winter really does come or maybe not who knows?!
  8. @ All bloggers
    Well, I’m not entirely sure as to the threat for snow, as we are still several days away from considering that possibility, although I will say that it does appear we will see an Alberta Clipper system round the base of this trough that will set-up over the Great Lakes & eastern Canada, & as this system is coming around, with the remnants of an old frontal boundary still on the coast, this could potentially lead to a set-up that gets a low pressure cranking off of the southern New England coast as the ECMWF has shown for the past 2 runs. Now, although other models currently aren’t as supportive of this, let’s remember that the ECMWF was the first model last year to pick up on the New England Blizzard in mid-late February, while the other models didn’t catch on until a few days before the event actually occurred. I personally think the GFS is way too far east, as usual with the trough over the eastern seaboard & is struggling handling the shortwave disturbance (the Alberta Clipper) that will dive into the base of the trough, thus I think that’s at least part of the reason why the GFS isn’t showing the solution being portrayed by the ECMWF, & also the CMC appears to be having some similar issues in that its focusing too much energy & handing it off way too fast into the low pressure system that will be moving into Atlantic Canada. The ECMWF on the other hand is much slower than the GFS & CMC, & its pretty evident when the ECMWF has this low pressure system that is shows originating off the southern New England coast just entering Atlantic Canada by 144 hours, while the GFS & CMC have this same system already well past Atlantic Canada & on its way to Greenland, given the GFS’s typical eastward bias, that does make me at least somewhat suspicious of the CMC siding with the GFS in this instance. Also, I should note that we have another typhoon (Francisco) recurving near Japan in several days & I would anticipate that based on this, do expect a significant plunge in model skill (like we saw following the last typhoon recurve) in the medium to longer ranges as the models have to adjust & simply have a tough time handling such a significant shortwave entity entering the longwave jet stream pattern of the north Pacific, as it will have major consequences in the entire northern hemisphere jet stream pattern. Speaking of which, here’s a very long, but extremely informative scientific paper assessing the relationship between the west Pacific typhoon recurve & its teleconnections to the northern hemisphere pattern, definitely will be coming in handy over the next few weeks.
    http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a277210.pdf

    I would definitely save or bookmark this site, this one shows the northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly (you can also go to the Rutgers University global snow lab & see a more information shown here), along with other things, cool stuff.
    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

    @ Jacob Thorne
    I saw your winter outlook, & I’ll say that your public speaking skills have dramatically improved since your videos over the summer & you are definitely growing as a weather enthusiast. Also, I’ll say that I really hope you took the cold PDO into account as well as the QBO into your winter forecast, because I did notice your analog years had a lot of warmth over the northern Plains, Pacific Northwest, & the northern Rockies, & in the -PDO & a favorable QBO pattern, there’s a strong tendency for a lot of cold to show up over these areas, but we’ll see what happens as it appears I will have to probably make a final assessment & a few adjustments based on that in the first or second week of December in my final & official winter outlook.

    In the meantime, I’m going to have to go thoroughly go through that West Pacific typhoon teleconnection paper I posted here as well as others and some cool websites I showed Armando several days ago. Also, another very knowledgeable & upcoming star in the weather community, Andrew of the weather centre, will be releasing his final winter outlook later this week, definitely s lot to look forward to over the coming weeks.

  9. Hey eric, yea well obviously we can’t rely on any model at this point until we get like a day or two before the storm unless they all get into agreement. I’m really not even excited lol about this storm because it just seems like it will be too warm unless the cold air is cold enough or something. I did see Andrew say his final winter forecast will be released next thursday and i’m definitly excitied! Those links you gave me were great and i learned so much! I will read the link to the typhoon and connection to the northern hemisphere, it’s honestly amazing how their is even a connection between them, like weather ceases to amaze me! So what do you mean that with another typhoon occuring, it will be interesting over the next few weeks? Also like ii know the second half of october will be the opposite with cold air, which is great lol, but what do you see in the longer range like november?
  10. Hey everyone, if anyone is curious and is anxious on how this winter will play out, Andrew, from “theweathercentre.blogspot.com”, has put out his final winter forecast and wow, this winter can be very interesting! So if anyone wants to know what to expect for their area, check his forecast out, in my opinion it’s a very fair forecast and sure as heck im so siked for this winter! Overall, expect the northeast to get “some big snow events”, so all be ready!!
  11. @ Armando
    Hey, I haven’t been answer questions lately because not only due to my rigorous schooling this year, but I have my hands completely full with several weather research projects I’m currently doing. One of which is a study on the MJO & the track, strength, & amount of ACE in each oceanic basin by month & MJO phase, to see what trends I could find & possibly this work may be able to help me create a nice chart to use, similar to the products you see at the CPC where “climatology” charts of temperature, precipitation, & even the northern hemisphere 500mb pattern are created, where in this case I’ll be able to key in on certain areas over the globe for tropical cyclone intensity frequency, patterns, & even landfalls at certain times of the year in a specific phase of the MJO. Another project I have in front of me is to run correlations using the monthly & weekly northern hemisphere, Eurasia, North America (without Greenland) snowfall since 1966 from Rutgers University to see if there’s also other important trends & conclusions that can be drawn from this as you already know the SAI (Snow Advance Index) in October has a relatively high correlation to the following winter’s AO & even NAO. What if, by looking & comparing specific weeks within the month of October,& other months I can find other possible trends, possibly even stronger correlations in snowfall to the AO/NAO index, or maybe even other things like the QBO, stratospheric warming, etc. Also, I already mentioned to you earlier that I was doing a research project for my school’s Science National Honors Society on an investigation between the frequency of global and North America earthquakes & the PDO/AMO cycles. I have been able to run a lot of correlations on the Atlantic hurricane season MSLP, northern hemisphere temperatures during October, North America winter temps, the Jan-Mar northern hemisphere, Jan-Mar global SST, and have even completed correlations on these items in the years/months preceding & following “strong” global & North American earthquakes, etc, and wow, I definitely see a very distinct pattern showing up. Here’s a little sneak peek at what I will eventually be posting on once I finish this project in early January, check out this Jan-Mar 500mb composite pattern in all of the strongest global earthquakes (8.5 or greater) since 1948, notice the very distinct -NAO/-PDO pattern, & abnormally strong amount of blocking showing up over Antarctica, very interesting to say the least.
    Southern hemisphere Jan-Mar 500mb in greatest global earthquake years on record post 1948
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&mon1=0&mon2=2&iy=1964&iy=1960&iy=2004&iy=2011&iy=1952&iy=2010&iy=1965&iy=2005&iy=1950&iy=2012&iy=1957&iy=2007&iy=1963&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=100&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Southern+Hemisphere&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

    Northern hemisphere Jan-Mar 500mb in greatest global earthquake years on record post 1948
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&mon1=0&mon2=2&iy=1964&iy=1960&iy=2004&iy=2011&iy=1952&iy=2010&iy=1965&iy=2005&iy=1950&iy=2012&iy=1957&iy=2007&iy=1963&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=100&labelcon=1&switch=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Northern+Hemisphere&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

  12. good stuff Eric. what would be even more interesting would be to correlate EQ, Volcano eruptions and sun cycles.
  13. Wow, that is really interesting, honestly their are just so many correlations between these weather events that i’m just in awe! Those ideas you came up with didn’t even cross my mind, but glad you talked about it because so now i can learn more about the weather and how it’s always trying to balance itself out so thanks for that info and looking forward toward your post on that! Now, ever since you first brought up your idea about the PDO( pretty much you were the first one to) my mind has since changed. Though, after reading other blogs and intelligent mets like you(andrew being one of them), i’m beginning to see a change in the weather pattern and other things that could help big time this winter. A few things i’ve picked up on, one being the stratospheric warming, could be a big player this winter. Also with solar activity being very low, my hope is rising. Yes, their is question with this -PDO and the southeast ridge and how far it could come up, but to me it seems it could be suppressed mainly over the southeast. All of these players such as the global sea ice, above normal snowfall in northern hemisphere/Eurasia, strat, warming, QBO, MJO, and now seeing warming in ENSO 3.4, could have a better chance of “overriding” that ridge with all of this cold, not to mention warming in the bering sea! Also if that cold air mass in the arctic circle can stay the way it’s and intensifying, that could send the AO deeply negative! So overall, it could start out slow, but it just seems that everything could “fit the puzzle” all together and possibly lead to a very interesting second half! I’m really liking what i’m seeing for this winter, but most importantly I’d like your feedback on all of this lol and your opinion! What have you been noticing or seeing a change in?
  14. Eric, I have a question for you about the intense storm that hit europe today. I have heard that this storm was the strongest it was hit since 1987 which is rare for UK especially with hurricane force winds around 100 mph. Do you think that this storm that happened in 1987 is the pattern similar to 1987 this year. What kind of winter did the
    mid atlantic have for that year? I checked the history records from wunderground and put in 1987-88 and it showed mild temps for december and then getting colder in january through at least mid february. I’m not exactly sure if the data are correct from wunderground.

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