My Preliminary 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

Now remember this is a preliminary outlook, things can and likely will change, dont take this outlook to heart, just an early thought. If you have any questions or comments. Please leave a comment in the comment section, thank you! Also all negative comments will be removed.2014-2015 winter 1

2014-2015 winter 2

2014-2015 winter 3

2014-2015 winter 4

7 comments on “My Preliminary 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

  1. Great forecast Matthew.
    I’m finding Winter 2014-2015 very challenging to pin down for the US. With the prospect of a weak Modoki El Nino, (which is another cold signal for Eastern US), an Easterly QBO, and a fairly mixed bag of forecasts from the Seasonal Models, I don’t think this Winter will be quite as bad as last year in terms of temperature, but do to the Global SST’s etc, I certainly agree with you on the High Snowfall factor across the Eastern Seaboard. If you’re interested in my thoughts mate ( http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2014-15-enso-qbo-detailed-forecast/ ) I will be watching this forecast closely, although I know it’s only an uncertain preliminary outlook. Thanks, Kasim.
  2. Actually my biggest headache at the moment is how far SE will those above average rainfall anomalies reach, as it could potentially bring some interesting Snow developments if those wet Anomalies you forecast begin to interact with cold air streamed down from the Arctic on that anticyclone.
  3. Thanks Kasim Awan,
    Yeah this outlook was very hard to post because of the uncertaincies I have about what this winter will be like, lol. I just looked at some of the updated CFS model and the sesonal outlooks on there, and I’m watching the current state of El-Nino because it has weakend some over a short period of time and that concerns me a little bit. Im also thinking that the great lakes and upper midwest won’t be as cold as it was last winter, but I do think at times the “polar vortex” will dip down far south as it did some like it did last year. My main concern right now is that the south and southeast will have its fair share of “cold” again like it did last winter. What was also very tough to map out was the snowfall outlook because its only July and I dont typically do that until late August-early September. I am currently working on another winter outlook and I should be done with it by Mid-Late August maybe earlier, I don’t know yet. I will definately check out what you think about this winter. If you have anymore questions, please ask, and I will let you know what I think.
  4. Thank you for your reply, and I will be watching your Winter outlooks closely.
    Yes I agree forecasting this far out is tentative. At the moment it looks like more of a Modoki (Central based) El Nino pattern for the Winter, interestingly the extreme anomaly of warm waters over NE Pacific are staying put. I’d say anomaly years for this Winter in terms of the Ocean temperatures include 77-78 and 09-10, which were very cold/snowy Winters. I agree with the current set up the Polar Vortex may once again split and form another across Eastern areas given the Global SST’s and moderate solar activity. Again the prospect of a very Easterly QBO perhaps hints that some Central states may not see such a “severe” Winter, although other factors can always out weigh this, etc. My gut instinct right now has not changed too much compared to the last time I looked. I will have another look late in July but ultimately it will not be until September/October until we get a better idea as the El Nino is in a bit of a lull at the moment, and could go various ways especially in terms of Nino1 and Nino2. I will be watching closely in the coming months and happy to know you’ll be pleased to answer my questions. Thanks again, Kasim.
  5. So… it’s normal snowfall again for Kansas city again, eh? I hope the forecast changes and we get WAY above average snowfall like 2009-10 and 2010-11. Thank you for the outlook!

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