When it comes to an EL-NINO there are several factors that are involved in one, so you can’t just throw out any weather prediction based off the factor that an EL-NINO is present. One factor that you have to have in place as well is the TYPE of EL-NINO. Is it East, or Central Based as that will have an effect on what type of weather you will have as a result of the el-nino.
EAST BASED EL-NINO:
When an East based EL-NINO is present that means that the core of the warmer than normal pacific water’s is closer to Central America and South America than not. Typically the EL-NINO would be found in the NINO zones 1-3. When the EL-NINO’S form in such a manner, in those regions it is considered a East based EL-NINO.
These often result in Warmer starts to your winter’s especially in the eastern half of the nation and the northeast. While at the same time it is cooler in the southwest and southeast. As winter continues on you typically see temperatures become colder and colder in the eastern half of the nation. (Not really including the Midwest)
EAST-CENTRAL BASED EL-NINO: NINO ZONE 3.4-4
An east-Central EL-NINO is not nearly as warm at the outset of winter as a classic East based one. Temperatures in the northeast and mid-west still start off above average but its nothing record breaking like you might see in an East based EL-NINO. However winter does cool off as you head into January and February for most of the United States and it warms up in the Pacific Northwest.
CENTRAL BASED EL-NINO: NINO ZONE 4
A central based EL-NINO is typically the coldest of the events. As the West typically stays warmer than average early on while it is cooler than average most of the winter in the eastern half of the nation.
So when you consider all of the things here involved you can really see that where the EL-NINO is located can have a significant impact on the winter. However as common with EL-NINO’S temperatures tend to be cooler than average closer to the tail end of the winter (January Through March). Tomorrow we will look into the strength of the EL-NINOS and see if that has an effect on what weather you will see.