Right now things look to be in a pattern where you could say we are in a zonal flow. Which is when the Jet stream sets up along or just north of the Canadian Boarder and cuts across New-England. In general you usually see relatively weak storms that race along with little rain associated with them. This also helps to keep real arctic air up in Canada an in the northeast. While there will be some cooler impulses of air, there will be nothing in the range of an arctic chill.
Of course though this is only October so many can argue that things can change. And right now I am here to tell you that they likely will. When you look back at my winter outlook you will see that I have predicted wetter than average conditions in the southeast and in the mid-Atlantic and northeast, especially as you get closer to the coast. Another thing that was mentioned in the forecast is that there will be more rain than snow early in several areas of the northeast and the southeast. However I do expect that to change.
Historically even in strong el nino years the month of February has been a typical snow producing month, as you typically see more phasing of the Jets steams then. However I am talking about more than just snow. I am talking about cooler than average air in the east. As you saw yesterday in my path to winter video and post, that our affiliate Eric Webb made a nice post about how things are when you have a positive PNA in October and what that typically could spell for the rest of the winter. While winter typically will start off warmer than average. (As we predicted in our winter outlook) things tend to get drastically colder as the winter gets into its second half.) Ir will end colder than average.
FOR NOW AND FOR LATER:
For now things will continue to be about average to slightly above average temperature wise. Through at least The first half of January. There will be impulses of colder than average air in the Mid-Atlantic and into the northeast. But nothing record shattering. Second half of January and into February and March you will likely see more cold than warm days in the eastern and southeastern half of the United States. Snow may be a key feature during these months. How much remains to be seen, but for now we can say when winter does arrive it will come with a vengeance!