A Warm November Lurking? If you want a cold and snowy Winter? (09-10)

Comparisons of the cold season of 2009-2010 to this current season is becoming more common. Similarities Temperature wise are coming into place. With an El Nino in place many are expecting a wild ride during the winter season and many may be right.

So far October has been below average in the East, despite the warm shots of mid 70s evey now and then. In 2009-2010 October was also colder than average, but in November everything flipped and the East averaged above normal in tempuratures.

Here is a Graph from the NOAA showing the above normal temps in the east in November 2009.

Here is a Graph from the NOAA showing the above normal temps in the east in November 2009.

As you can see,  November was almost record breaking in terms of temperatures in some spots. The GFS has been showing a lot of support for above normal temperatures in the east for the first week of November and beyond. That is definately something that has to be watched.

Here is the GFS forecast for the first week of November. A very warm one that case.

Here is the GFS forecast for the first week of November. A very warm one that case.

warm novmber

Although November was warm, that doesn’t suggest that the winter is going to be warm as well. As a matter of fact February brought near record cold air to the Southern States, as well as the lower Mid-Atlantic. And it also brought one of the record breaking snowstorms to Philadelphia and Washington D.C.

Here is a video from Brianscrazytalk YouTube Channel showing the crazy storm that hit the Eastern States from February 5th to the 7th. Snow amounts exceeded over 32 inches in some spots.

As we got deeper into the Winter season we saw colder and colder air.

As we got deeper into the Winter season we saw colder and colder air.

feb

As you can see the Correlation is becoming more relative as time is showing, so if you want a cold and snowy winter, perhaps a warm November isn’t so bad after all.

 

8 comments on “A Warm November Lurking? If you want a cold and snowy Winter? (09-10)

  1. So it can be a average winter tempature wise but well above average snow
    Do you think this will be like 2009 2010
  2. I agree that this November will be pretty warm because of the strong El Niño peaking during that month and falling later in the month of November. December will probably be above average as well, due to the El nino remaining pretty strong. January will most likely be a transition month between warmer than average and colder than average, due to the expected gradual weakening of El nino and the transition from an east based to a central based El nino. February will probably be much colder than average with a similar pattern as Feb. 2010.
  3. Snow lover, comparing anything to the winter of 2009-2010 is very difficult. What I would say is yes, I do think this winter will be less cold than last year but we can see as much snow or even more compared to LAST year. With that said it may be comparable with 2009-2010 once all is done with.
  4. Fierystrat, I wouldn’t get so hung up on a warm December or even an average one. I think once the ridge breaks in Alaska from this “soon to be November Pattern” we can start seeing the winter pattern being set up as early as the first week of December.
  5. Pingback: Big Pattern Change Coming Next Week, Shadows of 2009? | Weather Advance Storm Center

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