OUTLOOK 2

Weather Advance 2015-2016 Winter Outlook Second Edition

When you consider what our original winter outlook looked like, it gave you some simple details about what winter might look like. Well we have made some tweaks in the outlook to make it more accurate as we have gotten closer to winter and have seen the pattern some in the month of October. What we really will be looking at are the factor’s bellow.

  • Strong East/Central El-Nino is in place
  • Weather Pattern For The Month Of October
  • NAO,AO,PNA patterns
  • History of Strong El-Nino’s

csv2During a strong El-Nino Typically it is warmer than average through much of the lower 48. And wetter than average along the gulf coast and east coast. However I do not believe that it will follow the same pattern as a typical strong el-nino. Consider as well that the El-Nino is on the verge of Starting to dissolve or dissipate. As it has reached its peak October/November and is projected to weaken. According to the computer models, the El-nino should weaken to around the 2009-2010 El-nino range by time this December-March arrives. The 2009-2010 El-Nino really maxed out at about +1.3-+1.5, and as you can see from the graphic to your left, the model puts us around that range by time we reach November/December/January/February. So while we have peaked at a massively strong el-nino, If you like snow the weakening of the El-nino soon to come really makes us look closer at the winter of 2009-2010 a little more closely.

graphic 1The second aspect of this winter outlook that we must consider is that of the weather pattern that we see set up in the fall. As at times, we will see different patterns form that give indications to the patterns that we will be in as we head into the winter season. So we are going to look first at the temperature anomaly for the month of October. As we look at the temperatures for the month of October here is where there is a difference in the month of October of 2015 and the October of 2009. In the Country’s Mid-Section and even in the west we get to see that in 2009 the temperatures were all much bellow normal temperature wise. In fact that October ranked one of the Coldest On RECORD. While this one (October 2015) seems to appear as the West and Central US that it was one of the Warmer Octobers in recent years. While the east remained relatively cooler than average. And in actuality it was wetter than average in the east and drier than average in the mid-section. This is almost an exact contrast to what actually happened in 2009. However one of the things that did seem to remain the  same was the pattern of the PNA.

Another aspect that we can look towards for this winter is the patterns that we have seen with low pressure systems so far this past month. The similarity comes when you look at where a couple of the coastal lows have gone. Instead of them coming straight up the coast, the heaviest of the rainfall primary stayed along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Emphasis could be put on that storm that came through the mid-Atlantic and northeast early this past October. That is earally similar to what happened in 2009-2010. Where storm systems exited off the coast of New Jersey and failed to send much moisture into the interior. (See image Bellow) Now part of the difference this October has been the fact that we have also seen to Appalachian cutters. Could that just be because it is currently Fall and still in transition? It is very possible. But yet To be Seen.compare 1

When you consider these facts I invite you to consider one more, The pattern of the AO,NAO and the PNA. There is a very interesting article that came out in the month of August that mentioned that typically years with a strong negative AO in the month of July usually have colder than average winters. One of the Analogs that they used was the winter of 2009-2010. CRCbkPSWEAQ-9NPInteresting isn’t it? (Click here to read the full article) So if you are a snow and cold lover you have that in your favor as well. When you consider the PNA for the Month of October it was positive for the majority of the month? On average what happens when the PNA is positive in October on an El-Nino year? Well looking at the image to your left really tells what typically happens, however the twist is that October was well above average temperature wise except along the east coast. However if this formula were to stay in place that my indicate a colder winter in the eastern half and southeastern sections of the united states really starting from January on.

So considering all of this and what also typically happens during an El-Nino year I have tweaked the winter outlook just a little bit. We go with the motion that the effects of the strong el-nino in place will at least start with an effect on winter and that the pattern will persist that we have seen over the past couple of months for at least the first half of the upcoming winter. So while it will get cold in the east and northeast, it will take some time. For the time being you may see warmer than average temperatures overall in areas of the mid-Atlantic. However the second half of winter, especially January and February may have winter return with a vengeance. Still for the big cities I believe this winter will be one remembered a little more for more rain than snow. NOT because of a bad storm track, but more-so because a lack of Cold air available until maybe the second half of winter. For right now we will go with average snowfall for the big cities and slightly above average snowfall for the mountains and areas of Texas/Oklahoma. However my confidence level is fairly low as it pertains to that section outlook. The Part I am fairly confident in is where I expect it to be drier than average overall, as a result bellow average snowfall. Any questions comments concerns about this upcoming winter? Feel free to ask them in the bellow comments section. The final Outlook will be out DECEMBER 5TH 2015. TEMP OUTLOOK

PRECIP OUTLOOK

AVERAGE

OVERALL OUT

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

10 comments on “Weather Advance 2015-2016 Winter Outlook Second Edition

  1. Dante, this forecast seems to be confusing. 1) you mention that this winter pattern is going similar 09-10. 2) then you simply change your statement say that the mid-atlantic is going to see below normal snowfall. I disagree on snowfall, we should see above normal snowfall similar to last winter anywhere from 120-150% from normal. The reason I say is due to the +PDO and gulf of alaska staying warmer than normal that has been there for the past two years, which resulted in a -EPO. But this winter will be less cold the last two winters due to a strong el nino. So December is still going to be mild but not like 1997. As the el nino weakens by second half of the winter, the northern pacific will play a role like it did similar to last winter through the month of February and first half of March. We may see -EPO or -AO which will lead to a colder temps the second half. There is a very good chance for an above normal snowfall.
  2. @Wasi – Thank you for your comment. Im sorry i was not clear enough in the post. I am trying to say that there are similarities between the winter if 2009-2010 but I would be lying if i said that the circumstances are a carbon copy. So right now for the mid-Atlantic and the big cities i am going with average snowfall for the mid-Atlantic. The ingredients will be there for a cold/snowy second half of winter. But the key is how soon will we see that pattern change take place? So im going conservative until my final outlook.
  3. The difference I see for this winter is in the northern pacific and strong el nino which is pretty much a basin wide and what I have heard from other meteorologists is that this winter will start as mild from December like 1982 finish like the winters of 1958, 2010, 1965, 1987. These winters had strong-moderate el ninos also and finished above normal snowfall. This winter pattern is following a blend of these winters and also 2015 because of +PDO and northern pacific. The only wild card is the NAO which would be an added bonus if the blocking happens as early as December to get snow. Otherwise this winter will be slow start and see more rain. Then active pattern is going to be in the second half of winter. To me the NAO isn’t a problem for this winter because the last two winters was predominately +NAO and gave us a snowy winter. The warm pacific overuled it the atlantic and I think the pacific will help us out. So you don’t need the help from the NAO because of pacific which allows ridge in western Canada and trough in the eastern US. +PNA will give enough support for above average snowfall without blocking. We had a snowstorm in 2003 and during February and it did not have blocking so +PNA/-EPO worked out. These are winter analogs I have heard from other sites.
  4. Wasi, I am in agreement with you on the fact that this winter will be pretty cold in January- March and that the NAO could make for a wild December. Some model runs are showing the NAO going negative around early December, which could make for a crazy start to the month. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the NAO going negative multiple times during the month of December and bringing a colder pattern for a while. But for sure mid January-March will be below average with a snowier pattern and some signs are pointing to a late start to spring
  5. What many others are calling the cold blob if that moves to the south a little bit and creates a tripal
    Then how much of an effect would that hove on this winter
    And also could you guys help me out I am 12 and am trying to put all the facts together for my first winter outlook
  6. @Fierystat, I don’t really pay attention to ensembles more than 5 days out on the NAO. It always changes and flips so anything beyond that is fantasy. We won’t really know for sure when the NAO will start to go negative. But since this is an el nino, we most likely do get blocking and could make this winter historic if we get a blockbuster storm as early as December. If we get a storm and have cold air available, then we would be ahead of schedule.
  7. @Snowlover, the warm sst will become a factor by the time el nino weakens to moderate by February into March. So that means February and March are going to be colder than normal. This was the case from the past two winters. Some people were screaming that the warm blob will be kicked out because of “Godzilla El nino” like 1997-1998. Well those people were using the CFS model which has truly busted as I remember showing cold water getting east of 150 by the month of October. It is the worst CFS seasonal model that can’t predict a month out. So now CFS is correcting it self slowly and catching on with other models by agreeing on central based el nino but not there yet.
  8. When do you think this pattern will change cause I’m starting two get frustrated my area just broke its record high and now I’m beginning to worry we won’t even get a single inch of snow this winter
  9. @Snowlover, that is what el nino patterns do, history of moderate to strong el ninos have warm Novembers so that later in the winter, we get colder temperatures. That is what Dante explained that there are similarities between this year and previous el ninos.

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