Im sorry Im a little late, I was noticing something interesting on the last few runs of the GFS on the long term scale. I wanted to see some consistency. So for right now what we will do is go off of what we have see with the GFS 06Z run. So away we go.
Right now what I expected to really happen a few days ago, seems to be playing out as the GFS has stayed consistent with a warm-up in the nations mid-section and a really average to slightly bellow average temperature scale in the northeast and mid-Atlantic. On this model analysis. We actually are going to use the term “SNOW”. Well let me clarify “LAKE EFFECT SNOW”. It appears as we head into next weekend that is what we will be dealing with as the coldest air of the season makes its way into the region. Lets look at the model shall we?
Here on November 11th in the morning we will really be having a backdoor cold front come through the northeast. This will be the leading edge of the coldest air of the season. Really in essence Virginia and North Carolina may have to deal with some of this colder air as well. The warmer than average air will stay out in the nations mid-section.
Here on November 12th is where we can see the effects of some lake effect snow. Actually it may be fairly breezy in the northeast and mid-Atlantic as well. Snow showers may even be seen as far south as West Virginia. Too early to talk about accumulation amounts but this has been fairly consistent with the last couple of GFS runs. The pacific Northwest is really starting to get hammered with some heavier rain and as mentioned before, that milder air stays put in the nations mid-section.
Want an idea of how cold it might possibly be? Well right now the GFS may be being too aggressive, but this is about 4:30pm on Saturday. This is the highest the temperatures show on the GFS model. Around 11am temperatures are still frigid. Either way we may be dealing with a three day stretch from Saturday through Monday with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40’s and lows in the 30’s possibly all the way into north Carolina.
We notice as we do start heading into Monday while it is still frigid, the coldest of the air is relaxing. It is warmer than average in the northwest. We also get to see a developing storm system in the southeast over Texas, This will help bring in another small shot of cooler air in the northeast.
On the 15th we see the cold front with some showers moving through the great lakes and the northeast bringing a reinforcement of some colder air. There is rain in the lower 48 but some mix and snow as we head into Canada. A ridge redeveloping in the western half of the nation and once again it remains unsettled in the pacific northwest.
So after I look at the model runs over the last few days and we analyze this run of the GFS here are my thoughts for the time period of the 10th – 15th of November.