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People Asking For Snow. . . . Sorry To Say But NO Big Snow Likely Anytime Soon

A lot of people have been asking about system after system and what will likely happen with them. For those in the mid-Atlantic and aI-95 Corridor things just are not set up at this current time for heavy snow events. NO im not talking about slop events such as snow to ice and then rain. Im talking straight snow. Why well lets talk about that shall we?

First off a factor that we have to consider is the state of the NAO , AO and PNA, the NAO has remained neutral since really October. The AO has really been neutral to positive for most of November and December. That combination does not bode well for big snows in the east because cold air needed and blocking needed is not available with and NAO And AO like this. The PNA has averaged neutral to negative since the start of the month of December. If you want big snows and cold in the east what you typically want is a positive PNA because of the factor that it means there is a ridge in the west which on the contrary means there is a trough in the east. ¬†Which results in Cold and Snow. As we can see here the way the pattern is currently set up, for the most part even if a storm system at this point were to take the “PERFECT PATH” you would have problems with temperatures being where they needed to be in order to support snowfall.

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A perfect example is what the GFS model (Which is the model i am mainly using this year for my predictions as it has been more reliable than the Euro since its update) said a few days ago about a possible coastal low turned nor-Easter. This is yesterdays 18Z model which shows a storm riding up the coast. perfect position if you want east coast snow but not a lot of cold air to deal with or it shows up too late for the big cities. Interior sections likely will have some snow but it will be sketchy. We will have further updates as we head into the future as well as my winter forecast that flows in line with what we have seen over the last couple of weeks.

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Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

14 comments on “People Asking For Snow. . . . Sorry To Say But NO Big Snow Likely Anytime Soon

  1. Or get that EPO/WPO to go negative to get fresh arctic air to suppress the SE ridge. You don’t need the NAO to go strongly negative to get snow. It has proven the past three winters.
  2. We are unlucky people in the US because everywhere in US snow falling while we have to just dream about snow & cold!
  3. 0 sunspots as of now. Do not be surprised if the amount of strength that the polar forges has begins to weaken sending waves of colder air down further and further south into the us. This will not happen at the press of a button it may begin later on in the winter by mid January through February.
  4. Cold like the cold the polar vortex can deliver is a blessing and a curse. Because the cold is dry and the troughs are usually Deep South but not very sharp for high pressure gradients. It’s a blessing because what does manage to form will be a snow only system if the correct setup happens.
  5. Just like the Atlantic Ocean. If it is warmer than average as it is this year is is a direct feed to strengthen and grow the storm. But it will also mean the deeper the storm the more warm ocean air that will breach inland.
  6. Looking at the series of model runs that have come out from multiple models it shows the beautiful Alaskan ridge building back in the same ridge that delivered us that well below average cold earlier in the month. Also the brief but ominous return of the Greenland block has been showing up. This is obviously not set in stone as the atmosphere is going through plenty of changes. But keep your eyes open for early January it’s getting interesting.
  7. This is the first time in a while I’ve been able to say this but this December was just about balanced out with warmer and colder than average days.
  8. So the cold is coming back sooner. As you can see the models are unreliable more than 10 days out when it was showing milder pattern. The pattern reloads again like last time with a combined -EPO/WPO. It’s a rinse and repeat by reloading cold air. Don’t need AO or PNA to be in favorable state. The pacific is better established this time and a better chance of bring more cold days than warm in January.

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