Storm Final Update: Bust For DC & Virgina; What went wrong

Some areas are waking up to just a light dusting of snow on the ground with the back edge on the doorstep. What went wrong exactly? Well the precip field was not the issue as the precip field was much larger than most models previously indicated. However the Dry dew points and cold air was an issue for the entire night/Morning. Even when snow started around I-95 it constantly would get dried up by the dry air. Learning point is when the air is this cold, you need heavier rates of snow to cause positive things snowfall wise.

It was not a bust everywhere though as areas in north Carolina got 3.5-4 inches of nice wet snow. But areas like Frederickburg VA as of 7am this morning only have around 2 inches of snow on the ground. So it appears a lot of areas besides where the rates were the heaviest got shafted. That is the world of weather that we live in.

Looking Into the long range:

Really as we look into the long range, there is usually every winter something similar to a January Thaw. Well this year will be no different except for the fact that it never really got all that cold so far this winter to start with. Anyway temperatures of the next week will hover around the 50’s and low 60’s. Amazing huh? Any chances of snow? Not likely in the mid-Atlantic. Interior sections of the northeast will deal with some snow, but the big cities will be mostly rain and maybe a rumble of thunder later this week?

Looking at the long range GFS it really locks us in this pattern through the remainder of the month. Could that be wrong? Of course it could but that is where you have too look at other factors involved like the NAO, AO, and PNA. Currently the NAO, and AO are positive, and will be for a little while. The PNA is negative. (For those who want snow in the mid-Atlantic and northeast you want this to be opposite) The only glimmer of hope is for February where I believe that we will start to see an overall pattern shift and the NAO and AO both go negative at the same time.

We will continue with weekly, and even more daily weather updates as you have seen us do so far this winter. Please feel free to share our articles and leave questions in the comments section. We will answer them as soon as we can.

Dante' Brown-Royal

About Dante' Brown-Royal

Hello, I am Dante' the CEO/President of Weather Advance. I most of the time specialize in Winter Weather and winter forecasting. I also am pretty decent in predicting severe weather and tracking hurricanes. Howevere usually that's not my forte. I will strive to always give you the most accurate updates possible, and information possible when it comes to the weather!

27 comments on “Storm Final Update: Bust For DC & Virgina; What went wrong

  1. He’s not going to because he only relies on -NAO for snowstorms which isn’t true for a fact when there are other factors which he does not look at. Only going to talk about three teleconnections to match or else no snowstorm is basically what he thinks.
  2. So Dante, lets face it, last winter was a great winter still than this winter without a HECS storm. This winter is a big blowtorch unlike last winter when last January and February was near average. December 2015 was the only blowtorch. So now you can’t claim that last winter was lame. How about this winter when it gets as lame as 2011-2012 winter that had a weak La Nina. Our snowy winters do come from at least one HECS storm on average for the entire winter seasons. This winter was unfavorable and last year was favorable at least for one big snowstorm which had a higher chance of happening because of active STJ by strong el nino. Averages do not mean anything. It’s about timing the storm perfectly. You can have a very cold winter and you still can’t automatically say snowy winter because it can be cold and dry winter. Same as when it’s mild winter but can’t say it can’t be snowy because it was a one storm. Even 95-96 winter was from one HECS storm. Take that out, it well below average snowfall for 95-96 winter despite a cold winter. I will take el nino and not la nina pattern.
  3. Dante, you’re still not doing the update on this winter analysis early since winter is over. Are you ever going to do it?
  4. If your reading this you need to do some posts in the potential for something on wensday/Thursday. I was checking the model runs and its basically 50 50 the european in showing a strong coastal storm the jam also has a coastal storm and the Navgem as well while the gfs, the gfs para and the CMC have a miss situation.
  5. This could be a big one due to the moisture from the gulf and the Atlantic but its the same game we played Thursday with can the energy get in front of the trough if it can boy we may have a major snowstorm from Washington, D.C. Northward but if it misses it will be cloudy and breezy.
  6. Not happening, this winter was mostly over. Of course, some snow can’t be ruled out but there is no chance for any big storm through the end of February and March. This winter was like 11-12 from DC to Philly. It may be worse than 11-12 because of record lowest snowfall under an inch. NYC still well below average snowfall regardless of small snow events. Dud winter was overdue for DC and will likely continue in the future given the climate trends for the mid-Atlantic for several years of non-winter. Next winter may repeat again so there is no next winter for VA/DC at least. It sucks what I’m saying but it’s true if you look at seasonal trends from 90s-2010. You can see the gaps for non-snowy winters for several years.
  7. Thanks for that. It’s very depressing I remember always getting exited wiphen I saw “Northeast snowstorm” but it’s for new England always being targeted near misses every time.
  8. I learned my lesson not to get hyped over that winter forecast bull crap. It’s just either a wishcast or a forecast with ocean analysis months in advance will never work.
  9. The overall driver this winter was the +QBO very strong to overwhelm the pattern when SSTA cooled the warm blob that caused a +EPO predominantly. The Pacific jet has been very strong causing storms to roar through and trough in the west and ridge in the east since November. So when making winter outlooks, always wait until the end of November and not in October. SSTA completely flipped by November from October and that busted many Mets winter forecasts.
  10. Just checked the radar the moisture plume is farther north and east than projected and tried finding the upper level disturbance didn’t find it yet. Now I know the odds are against it but to me this is a good sign any trend eastward in the southern system is good also northward is good to.
  11. I suggest you guys checking out winter storm orson on radar and satellite combo map it’s so beautiful a clear eye directly in the centre absolutely mesmerising.
  12. This winter is worse than 2011-2012 already with the least snow in DC. More proof that La Nina winters are very unfavorable for this area. Dante was saying that La Nina winters are snowier than El Nino winters. Well, that is just very misleading because of 95-96 snowiest winter. Eric Webb nailed his winter forecast which verified very well but sadly, he does not post here anymore as he used to a few years ago. He is only on twitter now.
  13. The location of La Nina has no factor on snowfall here whether it’s east based or west based. 95-96 was snowy because we had Greenland Block west based that forces storms further south. Without blocking, La Nina winters will most likely be well below average snowfall because of lake cutters.
  14. I keep clinging to the fact that the blizzard of 93 aka the storm of the century happened mid march I know that sounds stupid because no to winters are alike but the fact is there was a blizzard in march and snow can fall in march which is still a potential.
  15. Now from what I was looking at on the GFS, the GFS para and the cmc they are all showing a low developing and scooting eastward the European is showing a suppressed low giving regions south of Maryland snow and Mid Atlantic nothing. Still a week away so anything can happen. One low on Friday night and early Saturday can mean the difference with the track and the a,pint of snow I don’t see this one being any thing special but if it is further south it would mean snow for philly and the suburbs. The second one has the chance to be a stronger one with either a swath of heavy snow or a sunny day hoping for the first solution, HOPE IS STILL HERE.
  16. Same date as the birthday of the storm of the century blizzard of 93’though I wasn’t alive i did tons of research I wish I was there so majestic and incredible
  17. This could be the one we’ve been waiting for or to just another insanely close call like the one in mid February.
  18. All models have been suppressing it but as soon as it comes into mainland it will be one heck of a thing to watch God I Am Crossing My Fingers this is our last chance
  19. I mean all the models now have a suppressed system with some showing no system at tall but with such an impressive shot of arrive air and it only being Tuesday plenty can and will change hopefully it trends northward
  20. The cold pool has made a strong comeback and it looks to stay long term once again after a short-term warm blob in the Northern pacific which we haven’t seen in moe than 2 decades. Now I see some will hype modoki el nino coming when it is too early to say. Not all el ninos are the same which can be east or west based. But if el nino doesn’t become modoki, once again mild winter is coming with -PDO in place.

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