Some areas are waking up to just a light dusting of snow on the ground with the back edge on the doorstep. What went wrong exactly? Well the precip field was not the issue as the precip field was much larger than most models previously indicated. However the Dry dew points and cold air was an issue for the entire night/Morning. Even when snow started around I-95 it constantly would get dried up by the dry air. Learning point is when the air is this cold, you need heavier rates of snow to cause positive things snowfall wise.
It was not a bust everywhere though as areas in north Carolina got 3.5-4 inches of nice wet snow. But areas like Frederickburg VA as of 7am this morning only have around 2 inches of snow on the ground. So it appears a lot of areas besides where the rates were the heaviest got shafted. That is the world of weather that we live in.
Looking Into the long range:
Really as we look into the long range, there is usually every winter something similar to a January Thaw. Well this year will be no different except for the fact that it never really got all that cold so far this winter to start with. Anyway temperatures of the next week will hover around the 50’s and low 60’s. Amazing huh? Any chances of snow? Not likely in the mid-Atlantic. Interior sections of the northeast will deal with some snow, but the big cities will be mostly rain and maybe a rumble of thunder later this week?
Looking at the long range GFS it really locks us in this pattern through the remainder of the month. Could that be wrong? Of course it could but that is where you have too look at other factors involved like the NAO, AO, and PNA. Currently the NAO, and AO are positive, and will be for a little while. The PNA is negative. (For those who want snow in the mid-Atlantic and northeast you want this to be opposite) The only glimmer of hope is for February where I believe that we will start to see an overall pattern shift and the NAO and AO both go negative at the same time.
We will continue with weekly, and even more daily weather updates as you have seen us do so far this winter. Please feel free to share our articles and leave questions in the comments section. We will answer them as soon as we can.