Its that time of year again. Many have asked what will winter bring this upcoming season? Well My first edition of the winter outlook comes out later this month. But for now lets check up on one of the many important factors that plays into this. The state of the ENSO.
Did You know – That the “ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. When the conditions change, the atmosphere responds in many different ways.”
Yes this is something that happens in the Pacific but it has a great bearing on weather conditions around the world. So let us take a look at the current and future state of the ENSO, this will greatly help us to see what direction winter may be going this year.
Currently NOAA is making mention that the temperatures of the pacific are at or slightly above normal. But not above normal to the point of being considered an el-nino. Currently the status is Neutral. But the current trend is that sea temperatures are warming slowly but surely. Not enough to be considered even a weak el-nino at this point. But what is evident is that La Nina seems to be fading more and more out of the picture of possibilities. The National Weather service as seen in the model bellow believes a weak el-nino is possible by the end of the year. Im not biting. There is forecasting and then there is model hugging, my forecast is bellow.
Our Projection– As for Right now, I believe this year will be a Neutral year. Computer models tend to overdo just a tad the projected water temperatures in the pacific. For that reason combined with the fact that the projected el nino is not expected to be all that strong anyway, it seems like a great starting point to say that we believe it will remain in the neutral range for this upcoming winter and we will be making our outlook based on this projection. See what the typical winter pattern brings during a neutral el nino next week on our #pathtowinter series.