Most people often think that if you want cold and snow you need to have a weak to moderate EL-nino or weak La Nina. That is not the case at all
Did you Know- ENSO–neutral refers to those periods when neither El Ni o nor La Ni a is present, During ENSO–neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average. Neutral Conditions refer to the range of ocean temperatures either -.5 to +.5 degrees either bellow or above average.
Usually in the United State Neutral Conditions usually lead to colder than average conditions in the eastern or Northeastern sections of the united states. The latest of course was in 2013-2014 where we had the constant stay of the polar vortex. It was one of the snowier winters on record in the northeast and this should be of little surprise. In neutral conditions typically the Northern branch of the Jet stream stays on the southern boarder of Virginia. Where it often does have contact with the southern branch of the Jet stream. For those of you who like cold and snow this forecast that we project of a Neutral ENSO for this year should make those in the eastern half of the nation very happy.
Looking in a little more depth into it though we will look at 2009 and 2013-2014 both to try to come to a general idea of what we may be able to expect this coming winter.
As we went though the months of December 2008-February 2009 It for the most part was cold in areas that typically get cold during the Neutral years on average and warm where it should have been, but it was also dry in areas that it usually is fairly wet in during this period of time. So I guess you could say it was an average year for a year of that sort.
Now fast forward to 2013-2014
This year was know for areas north and west of I-95 in the northeast. But was wetter and snowier than average in the mid-Atlantic overall. But when you look at the situation in General both are just about where they should be compared to average. The little details of the matter will be ironed out in the coming months but if you like the cold and snow in the northeast during winter months you may like what this upcoming winter has to offer.