Author Archives: Eric

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) & Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) Index Reconstruction

Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index (ENS-ONI) Rankings (1865-Present)Since NOAA’s 20th Century Reanalysis to date, does not provide a time series to the EPO or WPO http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/timeseries/, I have reconstructed the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) & Western Pacific Oscillations (WPO) ¬†following the methodology of Barnston & Livezey (1987) using NOAA’s 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 & 2c. All of the data has been provided in a text file format & standardized with respect to the 1871-2000 base period. Overall, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-Present) & the 20th Century Reanalysis (1851-2012) products have similar interpretations of the EPO & WPO.¬†Reminiscent to the Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations, the Eastern & Western Pacific Oscillations are a prominent teleconnection pattern that feature a meridional (North-South) dipole in geopotential height anomalies (in this case over the North Pacific). The negative phases of both of these oscillations feature a stronger, more extensive than normal Pacific Jet with coincident reduction in the meridional height gradient in the North Pacific & downstream cyclonic circulation anomalies over eastern North America that thereby tend to favor significant arctic air intrusions east of the Rockies, hence increasing the probability for cold & snow in the Eastern-Central US & vis versa. Some recent research I’m currently undertaking suggests that while wintry weather even in the southern US is more common in the negative phase of the EPO & WPO, the potential for Miller B/Overruning/CAD (Cold Air Damming) events increases rather dramatically when the EPO & WPO are negative, while Miller As tend to be more prominent w/ high-latitude blocking dominating the North Atlantic (-AO/NAO) in concert w/ a stronger than normal & eastwardly displaced Aleutian Low.

 

Northern Hemisphere 500mb anomalies preceding Miller B/CAD Events (in NC)

N hem 500mb NC Miller B:CAD Events

 

Top 10 Negative vs Positive EPO Winters (1851-2012 NOAA’s 20CRv2c) (DJF) Northern Hemisphere 500mb height anomalies

Top 10 - vs + EPO Winters NOAA 20CRv2c

Top 10 Negative vs Positive EPO Winters (1948-2015 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis) (DJF) Northern Hemisphere 500mb height anomalies

 

Top 10 Negative vs Positive EPO Index Winter NCEP R1

DJF Northern Hemisphere 500mb Correlation Al Mariano’s EPO Index (1948-Present)

 

DJF z500 correlation Al Mariano New EPO Index

 

Top 10 Negative vs Positive WPO Winters (1851-2012 NOAA’s 20CRv2c) (DJF) Northern Hemisphere 500mb Height Anomalies

 

Top 10 + vs - WPO Winters 20CRv2c

Top 10 Negative vs Positive WPO Winters (1948-2015 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis) (DJF) Northern Hemisphere 500mb Height Anomalies

Top 10 + vs - WPO Winters NCEP:NCAR

 

December US Temperature Anomalies -WPO

Dec US Temps -WPO 20CR

 

January US Temperature Anomalies -WPO

Jan US Temps -WPO 20CR

 

February US Temperature Anomalies -WPO

Feb US Temps -WPO 20CR

December US Temperature Anomalies +WPO

Dec US Temps +WPO 20CR

 

 

January US Temperature Anomalies +WPO

Jan US Temps +WPO 20CR

 

 

February US Temperature Anomalies +WPO

Feb US Temps +WPO 20CR

 

December US Temperature Anomalies -EPO

Dec US Temps -EPO 20CR

 

January US Temperature Anomalies -EPO

Jan US Temps -EPO 20CR

 

February US Temperature Anomalies -EPO

Feb US Temps -EPO 20CR

 

 

December US Temperature Anomalies +EPO

Dec US Temps +EPO 20CR

 

 

January US Temperature Anomalies +EPO

Jan US Temps +EPO 20CR

 

February US Temperature Anomalies +EPO

Feb US Temps +EPO 20CR

 

EPO Index Timeseries (1871-2012) NOAA 20CRv2

EPO Index Time series (1851-2011) NOAA 20CRv2c

WPO Index Time series (1871-2012) NOAA 20CRv2

WPO Index Time series (1851-2011) NOAA 20CRv2c

Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index (ENS-ONI) Rankings (1865-Present)

Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index (ENS-ONI) Standardized Data (1865-Present)

Remembering the east coast nightmare of 1938. Hurricane season ramblings & tidbits. Preliminary winter thoughts

Hi all, I’m back once again with another post, however, this time I am going to dig a little deeper into the 1938 hurricane season as I have been observing some recent similarities to that year & I’ll offer some … read more

Stratospheric Warming, Indian Ocean Dipole implications on hurricane season & next winter. 1996 now a hurricane season analog. Cape Verde storm for July?

Hi all, and I want to say first of all, I greatly appreciate all of the feedback and comments I receive in my posts, and if you are a viewer of these posts and are too shy or perhaps don’t … read more

Verification of hurricane predictions

Hi all, and its been a while since I have posted, but I will help you catch up to speed on what’s occurring in the tropics and how my summer & hurricane forecasts are panning out in comparison to some … read more

Hurricane Season Forecast & Late Winter Ramblings

    Hi all, and of course the weather pattern after the most recent winter storm in the northeast, has quieted down considerably and many in the eastern US, as I’ve been saying for several days are experiencing some nice … read more

Incredible winter storm for the Northeast US, widespread power outages likely. Major Blizzard for the upper midwest. More to follow as pattern remains favorable

Just want to make a quick post about this storm and want to continue to mention what will be coming in the longer ranges. A very dangerous situation currently ongoing in the northeast as they deal with an unbelievable snowstorm … read more