Author Archives: Matthew Hatley

September 1st 2014-2015 Winter 3rd Update.

Hello everyone, a lot has changed since my last outlook. This winter is going to be possibly worse than last winter. So lets go ahead and get into this forecast.
14-15 winter 1
The image above shows a typical weak to moderate El-Nino. Generally in weak to moderate El-Nino the spilt between the northern jet-stream and southern
jet-stream is wider than normal. The Northern Branch typically goes north into Alaska and Canada, while the Southern Branch dips down into the Gulf of Mexico and rides up along the east coast. So typically during the weak to moderate El-Nino a ridge builds up in the west and a trough builds up in the east.
According the picture below, as of right now this winter is looking like it will be a weak El-Nino.
14-15 winter 2
The next image below shows the develping El-Nino for the winter also note the +PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Typically when you get a +PDO that also helps create the ridge to build up in the west.
14-15 winter 3
14-15 winter 4
The image above is an anomoly forecast precipitation wise for this upcoming winter. It shows wetter than normal conditions all across the deep south, the southeast up into the northeast U.S. While it shows drier than normal conditions on the west coast. Now while I think this certain anomoly wont happen, but it is something to watch for.

The next image below is an anomoly forecast temperature wise for this upcoming winter. It shows that persistant frigid air over 2/3rds-3/4th’s of the country and slightly warmer than normal conditions along the west coast.
14-15 winter 5
The next image below is the SST Anomoly (Sea Surface Temperatures). It show the warm waters along the equitorial Pacific, the warm waters along into the northern portions of the Pacific, where the +PDO is developing. It also is starting to show that Greenland High Block forming as well which will help set up colder conditions along the east U.S.
14-15 winter 6
Now lets get into my forecast maps along with the forecast map (keys). (2 images below)
14-15 winter 11
14-15 winter 8
Now lets take a look at precipitation for this upcoming winter. (2 images below)
14-15 winter 12
14-15 winter 9
Now finally lets take a look at snowfall for the winter. (2 images below)
14-15 winter 13
14-15 winter 10
Now the possibility of a weak El-Nino occuring this winter has gone up since my last outlook. Also my confidence in the forecast has gone up too.
Weak El-Nino chances-73%
Moderate El-Nino chances-12%
Nuetral Phase chances-15%
My Confidence-80%
Well thats my 3rd update, I hope ya’ll enjoyed the forecast. If anyone has any questions about the forecast for your exact location, please let me know and I will get back to you. Alright everyone I hope ya’ll have a great day, and remember my Final Forecast will be on October 1st. So I hope ya’ll can come back to see it. Ok take care everyone!

Fall Outlook

SeptemberFall

Hello everyone I have done a preliminary 2014-2015 winter outlook, but now I am focusing on Fall so here is my 2014 Fall outlook. If you have any question regarding to the fall outlook, please ask. Side note, I should … read more