Fall outlooks

Big Pattern Change Coming Next Week, Shadows of 2009?

The pacific express as I like to call it is getting itself in gear. Why, and what do I consider the Pacific Express? Well when storm systems start making there way into the coast of the Pacific northwest. Typically this pushes a ridge into the east, and allows a trough to build in areas of the west.

This is what several computer models have been predicting for a while to start the first half of the month of November. Consider the graphic to the left. While temperaturegfs_T2m_us_22s in the East will not be a torch, (or in the 80’s or 90’s) temperatures may average in some areas, some 10 degrees warmer than what is typical. However do not be alarmed. This is typical of Moderate to Strong El-Nino years. In fact this actually follows what Jason Shaulov mentioned in his blog post a few days ago. The 2009-2010 winter had a warmer than average month of November, while temperatures remained about average in the west. When you look at this graphic on the right and compare it to what the conditions were in 2009 it causes reasons for pause.

Next week into at least the first half of the month of November do not be surprised to see temperatures be above average.  In Fact lets also compare the NAO’s For the month of November of 2009 and this year as well. To try and make it Easier, because with this format it is hard to make a definitive determination. However the end of 2009 (perhaps November/Early December) had a slightly positive NAO. Why can we assume it is November and Early December of 2009 and not another time? Well consider where 2009 ends and where 2010 begins, That is at that end portion, with the negative nao coming right before the end of that year. So it is reasonable to conclude that November 2009 had a positive NAO on average. What is the point? There may be more similarities after all when you consider this November and the one of 2009. Does that mean winter will pan out just the same? NO. No two winters are ever the same. But in a year where there is a potential Record El-Nino and only one analog year to go off of in terms of relating it to one another you have to draw similarities from more than Just one place.


nao recordWhat will winter bring? That is yet to be seen but if you are a snow lover there are definitely things that you can hang your hat on that this may end up being a snowy winter, even if we have to wait for a little while. Stay tuned because on November 1st my second edition of my winter 2015-2016 outlook will be released. It will discuss some of this as well as looking at some of the current patterns to come up with a precise second edition of our winter outlook.

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